Norwich’s handicap value: a true representation ahead of WBA?

Norwich’s handicap value: a true representation ahead of WBA?

By Michael Gales Dec 5, 2013

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Norwich travel to West Brom on Saturday as the handicap underdogs with Pinnacle Sports. Norwich have played six of their seven away games against top 10 teams – losing all six. Has their handicap value been skewed by these games?

West Brom build foundations at the Hawthorns 

Since winning promotion to the Premier League in 2010, West Brom have consistently finished mid table – 11th, 10th and 8th in their first, second and third seasons respectively.

Much of the Baggies success has been down to their home form at the Hawthorns. Last season they won 47.3% of their home games – an improvement on the two previous seasons which saw them claim three-points 31.5% and 42% of the time in 2012 and 2011.

Last year WBA shocked bookmakers by covering six of their first seven games at home against the spread. The bookies subsequently adjusted their handicaps, and West Brom covered just four of the remaining 12 games at home.

With West Brom performing well at home in the three previous seasons, will their handicap form have dropped this season after an indifferent start at the Hawthorns?

At home this season the Baggies have covered the spread in 42.8% of games compared to last season when they covered in 52.6% of home games. This highlights that despite their average start, the bookmakers have valued West Brom’s overall strength quite accurately.

Norwich’s struggles on the road continue

Norwich manager Chris Houghton has been under intense pressure since early September. Norwich spent more than 20 million on the acquisition of new players in the summer, but have stuttered their way through the season so far.

Norwich have won just four games in the EPL since February 2012

The Canaries away form is becoming a problem. Last season they won just two games on the road, while in their seven away EPL games this season they have won just one and lost six. The Canaries’ problems away from Carrow Road is highlighted by the fact they have won just four games in the EPL since February 2012 – 35 games ago.

With Norwich so poor on the road of late, it is worth looking at their handicap form to see if there is any value?

Despite winning just two games away from home last season Norwich covered the handicap 47.3% of the time. This season however, they have failed to cover in 86% of their away games, and haven’t in the last four.

However, bettors should note that six of Norwich’s seven away games have been against clubs in the top ten. Is their handicap form therefore not a true representation of their strength, given the quality of teams they have played on the road this season?

West Brom are the -0.5 1.826* favourites while Norwich are offered at +0.5 2.130*. This is the best priced Norwich have been on the handicap since the opening day of the season, but it is worth noting they have conceded 21 goals in seven away games – an average of three per game – and only scored four.

Click here for the latest WBA vs Norwich odds.

*Odds subject to change

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