Can Williams win her first Australian Open since 2010?

Can Williams win her first Australian Open since 2010?

By Dan Weston Dec 27, 2013

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The first WTA Grand Slam of the year – the Australian Open– begins on the 13th January, with Serena Williams listed as the big favourite. Can Williams overcome her poor form and lift her first title at Melbourne Park since 2010, or will there be a shock on the cards?

History suggests the winner is ranked inside the top 10

The Australian Open is the first Grand Slam in 2014 and it is vital that bettors treat the WTA version (best of three sets) as a completely different betting proposition to the ATP version (best of five sets). Whilst the men’s competition is a supreme test of fitness, the women’s tournament is no different in match duration to normal events.

The effect of this is that whilst the best of five format tends to favour the ‘better player’ in the men’s event, women do not enjoy that advantage.

As mentioned in the ATP preview, the conditions in this event tend to play a touch on the slower side of average, so it’s not a huge consideration when assessing the contenders in the WTA outright markets. 61.5% of service games were held in 2013, which is slightly below the 2013 WTA hard court mean of 63.1%.

With 28 of the 30 previous finalists in the last ten years coming from top ten players, and the two exceptions being Justine Henin and Serena Williams – both former world number ones at that point – it is clear that when looking at potential winners that the main focus must be on the current top ten players.

The top five players in the world – all with combined percentages of around 120 or higher – are on a much higher level than the rest.

Serena Williams is currently available as the 1.901* favourite, but her recent record in Melbourne is not particularly good when considering how far above the competition she generally is. From 2005-2010, she did capture four titles, but the world number one has not made the final for the previous three years, losing to Sloane Stephens in 2013, Ekaterina Makarova in 2012 and not participating in 2011.

However, it’s worth looking at the table below, which illustrates the superiority Williams enjoyed over the top ten on hard court in 2013. The table also includes the five players ranked outside the top ten that are priced under 100 in the outright markets. *

2013 WTA service and break statistics

Player

Rank

2013 Service Hold %

2013 Break Opponent %

Combined %

S. Williams

1

84.8

51.8

136.6

Azarenka

2

68.9

57.3

126.2

Li

3

73.2

48

121.2

Sharapova

4

79.8

51.7

131.5

A. Radwanska

5

73.4

46.3

119.7

Kvitova

6

70.6

37.8

108.4

Errani

7

56.8

51

107.8

Jankovic

8

62.1

44.2

106.3

Kerber

9

67.9

44.1

112

Wozniacki

10

69.2

43.7

112.9

Halep

11

68.5

47.7

116.2

Stephens

12

67.4

37.3

104.7

Lisicki

15

72

36.1

108.1

Ivanovic

16

69.4

43.1

112.5

Stosur

18

72.5

35.9

108.4

Big difference amongst the top five

The top five players in the world – all with combined percentages of around 120 or higher – are on a much higher level than the rest. Williams has a combined percentage of 5.1% more than the second place Maria Sharapova. To put this in context, the men’s favourite, Novak Djokovic’s combined percentage was just 2.5% above Rafael Nadal.

In the outright market, Victoria Azarenka is the 6.160* second favourite. The Belarussian is probably the player that can best compete with Williams (they won two head to head matches apiece in 2013), but she suffered a hugely disappointing end to the 2013 season, losing five of her last six matches (three as favourite priced at 1.250 or below), and failing to qualify from the Round Robin stage of the WTA Championships in Istanbul.

Maria Sharapova is third favourite, and was ranked second in the combined percentages table above. Having missed the last three months of the season with a shoulder injury, she’s currently priced at 10.150*. As with Andy Murray in the men’s tournament, it’s very difficult to know how her body will react to a two week campaign, and she may need to get a better level of match fitness before she can realistically hope to compete with the best.

2011 and 2013 runner-up Na Li is next in the betting at 11.470*. Whilst the Chinese player has strong hard court stats and is definitely capable of giving the top players a tough match, there are doubts over her mental strength. Both her final defeats here were after she took the first set, and she has a poor 7-11 record in all WTA and Grand Slam finals combined in her career.

The final member of the top five, Agnieszka Radwanska, is sixth favourite in the market currently, available at 33.110*. With only one Grand Slam final in her career (a loss to Serena Williams in Wimbledon 2012), and the stats showing her level to be below the other members of the top five on hard court, it’s difficult to see the Pole making significant inroads beyond the quarter finals, unless the draw opens favours her.

Best of the rest

Several other contenders priced below 100 in the outright market worth mentioning are Petra Kvitova, Simona Halep and Sam Stosur.

Despite being ranked 6th in the world, and having questionable hard court stats, Kvitova is fifth favourite in the betting at 19.170*. However with her 2013 hard court opponent break percentage being just 37.8% (by some considerable distance the worst in the top ten), and with an incredible 50% of her matches in 2013 going to three sets, bettors must decide if she will win enough matches easily enough to avoid the accumulated fatigue that is so vital in Grand Slams.

Simona Halep was not even seeded in the 2013 Australian Open but in an incredible season which saw her win six titles, she finds herself priced at 43.780* for the event. She is an emerging talent but it’s worth mentioning that she picked up a fairly large proportion of her ranking points in low-level events against weaker competition, and these matches may flatter her stats slightly.

Finally, Sam Stosur will enjoy home player support but the 2011 US Open Champion, priced at 43.780*, has failed to get past the last 16 in this event. It has been mentioned by many that she may find the expectation a burden instead of a boost, and with such a career record it’s very tough to expect her to get significantly further than this.

Click here to see the latest WTA Australian Open Odds

Dan Weston is a freelance tennis writer who along with producing expert content for Pinnacle Sports also produces his own tennis rating system, and trading analysis which can be found at www.tennisratings.co.uk

*Odds subject to change

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