Machida vs. Mousasi: What’s not in a win-loss record?

Machida vs. Mousasi: What’s not in a win-loss record?

By Gary Wise Feb 11, 2014

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On February 15th, 20-4 Lyoto Machida takes on 34-3-2 Gegard Mousasi in the main event of UFC Fight Night 36. Below, we take a look at some of the factors that you should be accounting for in all MMA betting, and why they are making Machida the favourite despite the story the records tell.

34-3-2 is an impressive record in any sport and at any level, and Gegard Mousasi has lost just once in his last 23 fights, so you may look at his 3.010* price and see an opportunity. You may also know him by reputation, as he was regarded as the top light-heavyweight prospect in the sport before Jon Jones came around. He is highly decorated, having held a number of championships and being named Fighter of the Year in 2008. The man has a resume, but a look at the following criteria shows them numbers may not be as good as they appear.

Where have they fought?

Simply, Machida 1.444* has spent the last 7 years in the UFC, piling up 39 rounds of ring time over 17 fights, many of those in championship contention. While there have been usurper organizations over the years, none of them have had the depth of the UFC, which guarantees a high floor as far as level of competition goes.

Mousasi’s record crumbles under inspection here when we see that it’s composed of mostly Strikeforce, Dream and independent circuit fights. While former Strikeforce fighters have acquitted themselves well since the UFC purchased its onetime competitor (No former-Strikeforce fighter has won a championship, but many in their number dot the UFC’s official rankings) even that organization’s depth was questionable.

Caliber of competition

Machida is just 4-4 in his last eight fights to Mousasi’s 6-1-1, but the caliber of the four fighters he’s defeated far outweighs that of Mousasi’s victims. While Mousasi’s wins include Keith Jardine (4-9-1 in his last 14 fights), Ilir Latifi (a late replacement who’d never fought in a major organization) and Mike Kyle (2-4-1 in his last 7), Machida ended Randy Couture’s career and defeated UFC main carders Ryan Bader, Dan Henderson and Mark Munoz. Three of Machida’s losses came to former/current UFC light-heavyweight champions, with the fourth coming at the hands of #4 ranked light heavyweight Phil Davis.

History in weight class

Machida’s win over Munoz showed he could be match ready after dropping in weight class from light heavyweight (205 lbs) to middleweight (185 lbs). It’s a cut Mousasi is making for the first time for this fight, which is noteworthy because we haven’t seen how he’s reacted to either the loss of muscle or the major weight cut he’ll be experiencing leading up to weigh-ins on February 14th, the day before the fight. A tough weight cut can have a very real effect on a fighter’s performance.

Frequency of fights

While Mousasi’s recent record is strong, inspection of the timeframe in which he earned those wins provides a strike against him. His win over Latifi on April 6th, 2013 was the last time he fought, after having no fights in 2012. Two fights against mediocre opponents in 26 months isn’t much of a barometer on current form.

Injury history

Simply, Mousasi has had knee issues. 2012 was missed due to surgery following a torn ACL, and further knee surgery sidelined him for the last half of 2013. Many fighters never fully recover from injuries of this nature. Sore knees can deprive a fighter of both effective kicks and explosive takedowns. This fight will be the first test of that surgically repaired knee, and even if it’s fight fit, Machida has the experience to know how to attack it.

In past MMA articles like this one, we’ve written about the tendency for markets to overvalue fighters with name recognition, and that could be at play here. To be fair to Mousasi’s chances, Machida is a former UFC champion, and the aforementioned 4-4 record in recent fights could be the start of a decline Mousasi could take advantage of. The reality though is that Mousasi has a number of factors stacked against him; the underdog tag is well deserved. Of course, if you disagree with the assessment, you’re welcome to put your money where your mouth is.

Click here to see the latest UFC Fight Night 36 Betting – Machida vs. Mousasi odds.

*Odds subject to change

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