Is Swansea’s home form affecting the punter ahead of Newcastle’s visit?

Is Swansea’s home form affecting the punter ahead of Newcastle’s visit?

By Michael Gales Dec 2, 2013

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Swansea – who have won once at home in 11 EPL games – host an in form Newcastle team on Wednesday. We look at handicap form to see how their struggles at the Liberty Stadium is affecting the bettor, and how much value Newcastle offer the bettor on the road.

Swansea struggling for home form

Since they earned promotion to the Premier League three seasons ago Swansea have impressed fans and pundits with their possession-based football. In their first season they finished a credible 11th,before finishing ninth and winning the Capital One Cup under the guidance of Michael Laudrup in their second season.

As a consequence of their cup success Swansea won a place in the Europa League and have had to adapt to a busy schedule. It is important to look at how Swansea, with such a small squad, have adapted to life in Europe.

In the Premier League game immediately after a midweek Europa League fixture Swansea have won just two, lost four and drawn one of their eight games. With the game against Newcastle being Swansea’s third in six days their squad will be stretched.

Despite covering 52.6% of Premier League home games last season Swansea are struggling for form at the Liberty Stadium. Their home form is so bad they have won just one game in the Premier League since the 2nd March – 11 games.

At the Liberty Stadium this season Swansea have covered the spread in just 2 of their 6 games

So far at the Liberty Stadium this season Swansea have covered the spread in two of their six games, beating the handicap in just 38.4% of their EPL games this season.

Bettors must ask themselves if this is just a temporary blip at home or if it is a more serious issue for concern, and if it is, are the bookmakers overvaluing them on home soil?

Newcastle much improved on the road

After a sluggish start to the season, Newcastle have won their last four Premier League games. Confidence is evident amongst the squad after wins at home to Chelsea and away to Spurs were followed up with home victories against Norwich and WBA.

Last season Newcastle endured a torrid time finishing 16th in the EPL just a year after they narrowly missed out on Champions League football. A look at the Magpies away form last season highlights they won just two games, but in fact covered the spread in 42%.

Newcastle have already won more away games than they did last season and have covered the handicap in 61.5% of their EPL matches. On the road they have covered 50% of games failing against Man City and Sunderland.

Historically against the spread, Newcastle have covered the handicap once compared to three times for Swansea. This year Swansea are set as the 0 & -0.5 1.926* favourites, while Newcastle can be backed at 2.010* at 0 & 0.5.

Bettors need to decide if the Magpies are underrated given that Swansea have won just once in their last 11 Premier League games at the Liberty Stadium, or if Swansea are ready to showcase the form they showed at home prior to their poor run of results.

Click here for the latest Swansea vs Newcastle odds.

*Odds subject to change

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