Winter Derby: Speeding just the ticket at Lingfield

Saturday is Winter Derby day at Lingfield

Jamie Lynch looks at how the make-up of one Winter Derby specialist is a positive pointer to a newer contender at a big price, in an in-depth preview of the showpiece of the all-weather season.

There's a reason why Premio Loco rarely goes near a mile and a quarter on turf: because he doesn't stay. He dipped his toe in last year, in the York Stakes, only to finish last. And yet here he is, front and centre again in the Winter Derby, a ten-furlong race that's just perfect for him, two attempts having resulted in a narrow (nose) defeat in 2009 and a cheeky half-length win in 2012.
 
Why? It's not a testing question, but it is a testing answer, in that the testing element of Lingfield's polytrack is speed, almost regardless of trip, allowing a horse like Premio Loco to shine at a distance that dulls him under orthodox circumstances.  

In 2012, Premio Loco overcame a lengthy absence, a 5-lb penalty and Cai Shen, and the same obstacles are in place this time, though he's better drawn. That said, he was marginally better drawn than Cai Shen last year, who had the worst stall of all, 13 of 13, and that was perhaps the difference between first and second on the day, Cai Shen stuck wide and forced to cover more ground. Therein lies the hope for Cai Shen reversing the placings. That and the fact he's half the age of Premio Loco, whose reaching the veteran stage as a nine-year-old. 

Cai Shen himself fits the Lingfield bill as a horse who's as, if not more, proficient over shorter trips on turf, his best run of 2012 coming when fourth in the Group 2 Summer Mile at Ascot, where he made much of the running. He has no need to lead, however, which is just as well given that this renewal, more than most, looks hot on pace.
 
Who knows how much is left of Robin Hood, or what he'll be asked to do tactically by new connections, who rather riskily paid 28,000 guineas for him from Ballydoyle, but the horse might be so pre-programmed to pacemake that he can't help but throw himself forward, especially from stall 1. Next door in 2 is Ansgar, a horse who suggests the reverse of Lingfield might be true for Dundalk, having spent most of his life at longer distances, including over hurdles, before front-running at ten furlongs - or ten furlongs and eighty-eight yards as Dundalk is - transformed him at the end of 2012, though the Winter Derby calls for more than he achieved in winning back-to-back handicaps. 

Propelling the pace-forcers will be the pace-pushers, and amongst their number are Miblish and Farraaj, a pair whose last runs over the Winter Derby course and distance possibly paint a false picture: Miblish isn't so good as he looked when pushing Dubai World Cup-bound Planteur to a neck last month, while Farraaj is probably better than he showed in his November win, which did at least substantiate the theory that speed horses rule at Lingfield.

That was Farraaj's first try beyond a mile, but it was more a case of job done than job's a good'un in only a listed race, given he looked destined for bigger things when placed at the Breeders' Cup as a juvenile. His length win at Lingfield could be marked up on account of his racing freely, but equally he won't get away with doing it in this better field, and the combination of his previous problems (missed much of last year with back injury) and choke-out style makes him one to take on at a short price.

Though course specialists, neither Emerald Wilderness nor Tinshu will be up to this task, and likewise Robin Hoods Bay (watch your Robin Hoods, but don't watch the Russell Crowe one) is out of his handicapping grade, while Viking Spirit, despite twice winning at the track, including a handsomely-boosted defeat of Biographer, is the antithesis of a 'Lingfield horse' for this particular race in that he's dropping back in trip. Lingfield tends to favour those going up and not down in distance, which brings us, last but certainly not least, to the horse whose current double-figure odds look all wrong considering what's needed for the Winter Derby, namely speed and Group-standard ability...

It generally takes a Group horse to win the Royal Hunt Cup, which is what Field of Dream should have done last summer, when finishing best (for fourth, with Cai Shen in sixth) from an impossible position, but he made some amends over shorter still in the valuable seven-furlong handicap at Ascot on King George day. 

He has been shaping as if all of that ability is intact in strong handicaps in Dubai this year, tending to repeat his Hunt Cup trick of rattling home too late, making sense of this new trip experiment, more so at Lingfield, and it's interesting, as well as supportive, that his three useful half-brothers all stayed beyond a mile.  What would help is a jockey who rides the track better than anyone else, and, glory be, it's only Adam Kirby, King of the Ling, who has been booked.
 
Lingfield doesn't necessarily favour the brave, which is a bonus as he's not the bravest, but it does favour speed, which is a potential bonus as Field of Dream is probably the speediest, and if he'll get away with the trip anywhere it will be around here, following the Premio Loco blueprint. Of course, he and I may fall flat on our faces and he won't stay, but there's also a chance he'll say move over Premio Loco, there's a new Premio Loco in town.  

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Back Field of Dream in the Winter Derby

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