The Punter's In-Play Blog: All to play for at the Honda

Guthrie and Thompson, showing the way at the Honda

With a round to go at the Honda Classic, the stats say the leaders are favoured but Steve's not so sure. Read his take on round four here...

12:30 - March 3, 2013
With the course toughening up and the wind swirling, the scoring average rose to 72.75 at the Honda Classic yesterday - well over two shots harder than it had played over the first two days, demonstrating why the record of halfway leaders at the event has been so strong of late. Very few made any progress from off the pace and it was one of my pre-event picks, Y.E Yang, who shot the best round of the day, a three under-par 67.

Here's the current leaderboard with prices to back as at 12.15pm.

Luke Guthrie -8 5.14/1
Michael Thompson -8 6.86/1
Lee Westwood -6 5.24/1
Geoff Ogilvy -6 9.617/2
Rickie Fowler -5 12.011/1
Charles Howell III -5 17.016/1
Justin Rose -4 18.017/1
Keegan Bradley -4 22.021/1
Peter Hanson -4 32.031/1
Y.E Yang -4 40.039/1
Graham DeLaet -4 70.069/1
-3 and 170.0169/1 bar

It doesn't look as though the wind will ease at all today and so conditions will again be tough, suggesting the leaders hold a big advantage still. The last four winners of the event were all in front after round three so surely backing the front-runners is the way to go, but I'm not so sure...

Having let the stats guide me yesterday, I'm more than happy to have Thompson onside but the last four winners here have been experienced pros with PGA Tour titles and, in the case of Yang and McIlroy, majors already in the bank. Guthrie and my man, Thompson, are both looking for their first PGA Tour titles and the pressure might just tell. They look vulnerable to me.

The problem I have is that I just can't see any value in those within two, three and four of the lead, with the possible exception of Yang, who I'm on already anyway. The likes of Lee Westwood, Rickie Fowler and Charles Howell III win far too infrequently to take an interest in here at the odds available and should any of them win so be it.

The only bet I've struck in the win market today is on Lucas Glover, at a massive 190.0189/1. He's amongst the group of seven players five of the lead on -3 so he's far enough back, but being a past US Open winner, he certainly has the class for the tricky conditions and in what could develop into a war of attrition, if he can shoot three or four under-par, he might just have a squeak.

David Lynn will also appreciate the tough test - remember his excellent runner-up finish at Kiawah Island behind Rory at the PGA Championship last year? He's currently on -2 and in a tie for 19th place and I thought the 8.615/2 on offer about him finishing in the top-ten was massive. Anything over 6.05/1 would be more than fair.

So that's it before the off but I'll definitely be looking to get involved in-running later. It's a very tough finish at the PGA National and anyone posting an early target might be worth siding with.

I'll be back tomorrow with the De-Brief.

08:40 - March 3, 2013
I've tried hard to find an alternative to current favourite, Darren Fichardt 3.309/4, at the Tshwane Open, with a round to go but I can't.

Four players are tied at the top on -16 - Fichardt, Mark Tullo, Dawie Van Der Walt and Charl Coetzee. With Louis De Jager on -15, Peter Uihlein on -14, David Howell on -13 and Graham Van Der Merwe on -12, possibly the only others within striking distance.

Chilean Tullo won twice on the Challenge Tour in 2010 but he's still looking for his first European Tour win and that's a big negative. Van Der Walt and Coetzee are no spring chickens but both are looking for their first victories on the Sunshine Tour and a win here would be both career defining and career changing. Withstanding the amount of pressure they'll be under will be no easy task.

De Jager probably represents the biggest danger to Fichardt. He has at least won before, the 2009 Sun Coast Classic, and given he represents the Els Club at Copperleaf, he'll know every blade of Kikuyu but the experienced multiple winner, Fichardt, should have too much know-how for all of them.

I backed Fichardt at an average of 4.3100/30, after he'd played the front nine yesterday but it looked like I'd timed it wrong. Despite an expected birdie on the 11th, he didn't continue his serene progress and when play was halted because of thunder he was staring down a par save on the par 5 15th of around eight feet. I was pleasantly surprised to see him make the par save after the weather delay before going on to birdie the final three holes. He's a point shorter now but he still looks a good price to me and very much the man to beat. The leaders tee-off at 9.20am and it's live on Sky at 10.30am.

I'll be back later with a look at the state of play at the Honda Classic.

10:20 - March 2, 2013
After a promising start to both events on day one, yesterday was a disappointment all round.

Jean Hugo set the tone at the Tshwane Open and Branden Grace, Brian Gay and Y.E Yang all shot over-par at the Honda Classic to ruin their good starts. Both events look really tough to call now and I'm sorely tempted to claim I'm suffering from chronic toothache and call it a day!

Thunder stopped play at the Tshwane Open yesterday and the afternoon starters had to return this morning to finish-up. Round three has now kicked off and birdies are flying in left, right and centre. I'm looking forward to watching it live on Sky in a few minutes (10.30 start) but it's just too difficult to make a call on at this stage and I'm keeping the powder dry for now.

At the Honda Classic, I was quite optimistic about the aforementioned Grace, Gay and Yang but of my battalion of outsiders, only Graham DeLaet is left flying the flag - he trails halfway leader, Luke Guthrie by two shots. I was hoping that a clear picture would have emerged by now and that I'd see one or two players to get onside in-running with confidence but that's not the case.

Recent results suggest being up with the pace is essential - the last four winners have all been within one of the lead at halfway, so if history is to repeat, then backing both Guthrie on -9 and Michael Thompson, a shot behind on -8, is the only way to go but surely it's not that simple. Both men are looking for their first PGA Tour titles and there are a host of quality names on their coattails.

I don't like the look of the leaderboard, it looks every bit as tricky as the one in South Africa and I could have easily waited to see what develops here also but I have had a small play on Thompson. Guthrie at single-figure odds looks short enough but I felt Thompson at 26.025/1 was worth a very small play, given the strength of that halfway stat.

12:10 - March 1, 2013
It was an interesting first day at the Honda Classic yesterday, where Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods both shot level par 70's to trail first round leader and each way pick of Dan Geraghty, Camilo Villegas, by six strokes. Woods was amongst the morning starters and played OK but struggled with his putting, whilst Rory, playing in the afternoon, found finding fairways tough.

I'm more than happy with the start of my picks, with both Graham DeLaet and Branden Grace tied for second on -5 and Y.E Yang, Brain Gay and Patrick Reed, all on -3. Of course, it's very early days and there are a number of top-quality players up in the van already, so I'm going to wait and see what today brings but I have pressed my Brian Gay bet...

Gay won twice in quick succession back in 2009, so another win is certainly possible and his win at the Humana Challenge was a real eye-opener. Until then, his record in California had been poor - suggesting his game really is in great shape. He puts his new found form down to additional length off the tee but it was a hot putter that did the trick yesterday and considering he had a couple of horror holes, where he made a pair of double-bogeys, he did very well to finish on -3. I've topped-up at 85.084/1.

Don't get caught out at the Honda Classic...I know it's early but round two has already started!

It's been a disappointing morning to say the least at the Tshwane Open. When I woke-up, one of my pre-event picks, Jean Hugo, was three under-par through six holes and had hit the front. He'd been matched in single-figures and I was starting to get a little exited. I shouldn't have done. He played his remaining 12 holes in two over-par.

Charl Coetzee, a well-named golfer if nothing else, leads on -12 after a second round 65 but its recent winner and first round leader, Darren Fichardt, that I have my eye on. I'm a bit miffed that I missed the fact that, like Hugo, Fichardt, lives in Centurion and that this was his local course. Had I realised that before the off, at odds of around 28.027/1, I'd have gotten him onside.

With no pictures until 1.30pm, I'm hoping he doesn't get into his stride today. He's currently level for the day, playing the tougher front nine.

I'll return to this event and update the blog again at the close of play, if I get involved in-running, but I have a feeling that I'll be waiting until tomorrow. Low-scores are there for the taking I fancy there could be some big movers during round three.

Tshwane Open Pre-Event Selections:
Jean Hugo @ 150.0149/1
Espen Kofstad @ 250.0249/1
Simon Wakefield @ 380.0379/1

In-Play Bet
Darren Fichardt @ 4.3100/30

Honda Classic Pre-Event Selections:
Charl Schwartzel @ 17.016/1 - Fixed Odds market
Branden Grace @ 110.0109/1
Y.E Yang @ 130.0129/1
Ryan Palmer @ 150.0149/1
Ben Crane @ 140.0139/1
Brian Gay @ 170.0169/1
Matt Every @ 190.0189/1
Charlie Beljan @ 240.0239/1
Mark Wilson @ 300.0299/1
John Huh @ 300.0299/1
Ben Curtis @ 310.0309/1
Brian Harman @ 350.0349/1
Graham DeLaet @ 440.0439/1
George McNeil @ 460.0459/1
Patrick Reed @ 610.0609/1
Johnson Wagner @ 660.0659/1

In-Play Bets
Brian Gay @ 85.084/1
Michael Thompson @ 26.025/1
Lucas Glover @ 190.0189/1

David Lynn @ 8.6015/2 - Top-Ten Market

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter