Papal Election 2013: Picking the next pontiff

115 Cardinals will meet to choose the next Pope

Electing a Pope is a curious and unpredictable affair. Richard O'Hagan takes a look at the front runners in this year's surprise election...

Tomorrow sees the start of the one of the most unusual elections of all time. The electorate is tiny, with only 115 voters, but the victor will have command over 2.1 billion people. And, for the first time in over six hundred years, the previous incumbent is still alive to see the election of his successor. The election of a new Pope is certainly a curious thing.

What makes the outcome very difficult to predict, though, is one of the unwritten rules of the contest. The job can only go to someone who has not actively sought it. Yet, as Cardinal Cormac Murphy O'Connor shows in this interview, every one of the electors has designs on the job.

Another complicating factor is that the sudden resignation of the last Pope has given little time for people to wonder about the identity of a successor, a complete contrast to the slow demise of John Paul II in 2005.

How does it work?

The new Pope will be chosen by 115 cardinals from around the world. They were officially summoned to the Vatican on Friday after the outgoing Pope, Benedict XVI, approved new rules to speed up the election process. The exact workings of the election are described here. The election of Pope Benedict was a very quick one, but this conclave could last several days because of the unexpected way in which it has been brought about. The electors will have much to consider, among which are the following:

Age

When Benedict was elected, there was a desire for a shorter reign than that of his prececessor. However, even at the time there were those who wondered if, at 78, he was already too old for the role. Those predictions turned out to be prescient, although even those who made them could not have predicted the dramatic way in which they would come true. As a result, the electors are likely to look for someone aged between 65 and 70.

Balancing the desire for a leader who is young, but not too young, will be a tricky one and one which might rule out the Archbishop of Milan, Angelo Scola, who is 71.

Closeness to the previous Pope

There is already some division in the Catholic church over Benedict's resignation, not only on theological grounds but because some believe that he will find it hard not to influence his successor. That may mitigate against one of the early favourites for the role, Gianfranco Ravasi. Not only is he 70 (so right on the cusp of the age range it is believed will be acceptable), but he led the Lenten Retreat, the last big event of Benedict's reign. If he can convince the electors of his independence - and his published comments from the Retreat show him as being forthright and strong-minded - then he is a solid bet at 24.023/1

An African Pope?

The Ghanaian cardinal, Peter Turkson, is an early favourite at 3.711/4, but there are factors which will mitigate against his election. Some of his pronouncements - such as his support for the Occupy Wall Street movement and his backing of the idea that condoms could be used in relationships where one partner is HIV positive - will have lost him support. Then there is the fact that the church - like most religions - is innately conservative and might find the idea of an Pope from outside Europe too radical an idea after the upheaval of Benedict's resignation. Finally, and from a betting point of view significantly, this is one race which the favourite rarely wins. Another African, Francis Arinze of Nigeria, was strongly fancied in 2005 and apparently garnered little support.

A Pope from the Americas?

If the conclave does look outside of Europe, then it seems likely that it will be to the Americas. The Catholic community there is huge and Joao Braz de Alviz of Brazil and the Argentinian Leonardo Sandri will have their supporters. Braz de Alviz is a good price at 44.043/1 and at 65 he is the right sort of age. Again, though, there is a problem with his candidacy, which is recent admission that he had almost been caused to 'abandon his theology', something which might count against him after Benedict's final address in which he spoke of persevering even when it seemed like 'God was sleeping'.

Sandri's case has two different problems. At 63 he is probably slightly too young, and he was very close to John Paul II (it was he who announced that Pope's death) and might therefore be seen as a return to those days.

The no-hopers

First of all, you will look in vain for a British candidate. The only elector at the time of Benedict's resignation was Cardinal Keith O'Brien and he has since resigned his own post. The Archbishop of New York, Thomas Dolan, has been fancied by some, but the problems in the US branch of the Church, coupled with the huge influence that his country already has over the outside world, will count against him. Another strongly fancied favourite, Luis Tagle, is simply too young at 55 and it would be a real shock if the electors chose someone that young.

The smart bets

There are two other potential pontiffs whose chances are probably better than all of the above. One is Austria's Christoph Schoenborn, the Archbishop of Vienna. That the last two Popes have also come from middle European countries should not count against him and there seems no strong desire to return to the years when the main criteria for being elected was being Italian. At 22.021/1 he is a very good bet.

The same applies to Marc Ouellet, Archbishop of Quebec. He did once edit a journal founded by Benedict, but the fact that his thinking is, if anything, more moralistic than the outgoing Pope's will serve him well and at 12.011/1 he is again a good price in this very unpredictable market.

Recommended Bet:

Back Christoph Schoenborn at 22.021/1 to be the next Pope