How successful are the Champions League dropouts?

How Successful are the Champions League Dropouts?

By Michael Gales Dec 5, 2012

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When it comes to Europa League betting, it’s vital to consider the teams that have entered the competition after being eliminated from the Champions League. But just how successful are they? This article examines the success of Champions League drop-outs in the Europa League.

Round 32 & Last 16 Can Prove Problematic

One problem for punters betting on the last 32 of the Europa League is working out how motivated the Champions League teams are in progressing further in the competition.

Former Champions League competitors make up 25% of the teams in the knockout stages (eight of 32). From a purely abstract point of view, this means that four of these (50%) should progress to the next round.

54.8% of Champions League teams get to the second round

In reality, the majority of Champions League teams progress past the last 32 – 54.8%. This is no surprise, given that Champions League clubs are generally considered superior to their Europa League counterparts. This is also the biggest exit stage for these sides, however, with 45.2% falling at the first hurdle.

For supposedly Champions League standard clubs, this drop-out rate is a little high. The reason for this could be attributed to teams – having lost out on the more impressive Champions League – not taking the competition seriously when compared to their domestic ambitions. There’s also the possibility that teams have carried over a losing mentality from the Champions League.

With more than half of the teams typically progressing to the last 16 of the Europa League, around two more teams (an average of 1.92) are knocked out before the quarter-finals.

Quarter & Semi-Final Sees Quality Prevail

At no time over the last 13 years have all Champions League drop-out teams been eliminated before the quarter finals. In fact, when the Champions League drop-outs do make it to the quarter-final stage, they begin to become more consistent, with one more (1.08 to be exact) teams failing to progress to the semi-finals.

With the exception of the 2002/03 season, at least one of the eight teams has reached a Europa League semi-final every year after being relegated from Europe’s premier club competition.

In fact, last season was the first time in five years that no Champions League team reached the final. Prior to this run, this had occurred in four other seasons (2000-01, 2002-03, 2005-06, 2006-07).

No Guarantee in Europa League Finals

On average, Champions League teams reach the Europa League final 38% of the time, with the historic chance of a Champions League drop-out progressing through the knockouts and lifting the trophy at 4.8% (the purely statistical probability of one side in 32 – disregarding team quality – winning is one in thirty-two, or 3.1%).

Once reaching the final, there is no guarantee that a Champions League team will win, despite the sides winning five of the eight finals they have been in. Three of these finals have involved two Champions League drop-outs, however.

Despite this information, just two ex-Champions League sides have won the Europa League in the past seven years.

*Odds subject to change

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