Can Davy Russell win the award for leading Festival rider?
In the conclusion to his series, Michael Williamson applies Timeform's unique jockey ratings to Ruby Walsh and picks out a value selection in the market for the Thomas Pink award for leading Festival rider.
#1 Ruby Walsh - 34 Winners
Timeform has already undertaken a wholesale study using jockey ratings which, with a sense of inevitability, Ruby Walsh was statistically dominant across almost all facets. Different survey, same result, though it's hardly revelatory with Walsh having won the Thomas Pink award for top Festival rider no less than six times.
2009 was a watershed for Walsh and indeed the Festival when he rode seven winners, six coming in premier races, and then in 2011, known as 'Ruby Tuesday', Walsh had a treble in one day, with Al Ferof, Hurricane Fly and Quevega.
Those three are among nineteen hurdle wins on Walsh's Festival record compared to thirteen over fences, and, looking at Impact Values alone, he does seem an even greater force in hurdle races than chases.
However, when looking at his Timeform jockey ratings, the split is a little more subtle than that. Although still performing above average, his ratings in chases on the Old Course dip well below all his others:
* Walsh won the Mildmay of Flete Challenge Cup aboard Blowing Wind on 13/03/2002 (25/1). This is not included in our ratings as no Timeform rating was available pre-race.
By his own very high standards, his last three years have been below expectations as far as chases on the Old Course are concerned, with a % of rivals beaten of 35% in all races and just 22% in championship events. That the average market value of these rides was above 2 (i.e. he was riding horses that in the main had genuine chances of winning), tells a story that his mounts might, just might, have been a false price in these races, perhaps influenced by the 'Walsh Factor'.
Despite the mediocre Old Course chase numbers, Walsh is still well clear on the overall festival ratings and is fancied by many to regain the Thomas Pink award (at the time of writing he is joint favourite at 5/4).
Having been able to call upon the firepower from the champion trainers in Ireland and Britain, Walsh has never been short of quality rides:
2008's abnormally low number was in part due to Fiveforthree in the Baring Bingham. Although he was only rated 120 (10lb below the average of the field), he did have a large P.
His record on mounts pre-race allocated a p or + symbols are of particular note at the Festival as these have statistically performed better than others with the same notation and there are enough of them to be statistically relevant:
Walsh has another large P horse this year in the shape of the exciting Ballycasey, currently joint favourite for the Albert Bartlett hurdle, but there are many others with still stronger credentials based on the markets:
Predicted Rides
Champion Hurdle - Hurricane Fly; Gold Cup - Silviniaco Conti; Champion Chase - Sanctuaire; World Hurdle - Celestial Halo; Ryanair - Ghizao; Neptune - Pont Alexandre; Arkle Chase - Arvika Ligeonniere; Supreme Novice - Dodging Bullets; RSA Chase - Boston Bob; Albert Bartlett - Ballycasey; Triumph - Far West;
This represents an average strength of +9.62 against predicted fields, and that's without accounting for Quevega in the Mares Hurdle.
In short, analysing his own Festival record in conjunction with the strength of his likely rides this year, it's clear that Walsh deserves to be as short as he is in the betting for the Thomas Pink award. He has excellent chances in all the novice races as well as a live Gold Cup runner in Silviniaco Conti. And then there are two of his oldest and best friends, Hurricane Fly and Quevega, who will both strut their stuff on territory that Walsh is head and shoulders above the rest, namely hurdles on the Old Course.
Summary
After reviewing each of the jockeys, hopefully we now have a clearer understanding as to the individual areas where they have succeeded and had less joy at the Festival.
These pieces were also written with the overall aim of attempting to deduce who would be this year's leading rider. What's overwhelmingly clear is that not only are Ruby Walsh and Barry Gergahty the stand-outs on prior Cheltenham jockey ratings, their books of rides also put others in the shade.
Given that Walsh and Geraghty are so closely matched in the main areas, it's necessary to find a difference maker between the two. For this, master Cheltenham Festival ratings have been generated for all jockeys with over 50 rides that took part in last year's showpiece:
On these ratings, Ruby Walsh has a clear 1lb advantage over Geraghty. This is largely down to his superior ratings in the handicap races at the Festival:
Walsh: Rating 6.248, IV 2.89
Geraghty: Rating 3.70, IV 2.29
With everything else so tight between the pair this area may be the key difference, with Walsh the more likely of the two to secure wins outside of the Championship events. The perfect record Gergahty had with his stable's five main guns last year may also be very hard to replicate for Henderson's premier jockey.
There may, however, be a value alternative to the market leaders. At fifth place in our Festival ratings and second in our overall Cheltenham ratings, Davy Russell has proven he is among the elite at the course.
Although matching his previous highest haul of two winners will not be enough to win the leading rider award, this year he has a significantly stronger-looking book of rides for the championship races.
Gold Cup - Sir des Champs; Ryanair - First Lieutenant; World Hurdle - Bog Warrior; Champion Hurdle - Rebel Fitz; Neptune - Rule The World; Supreme Novice - Un Atout; RSA - Dedigout; Albert Bartlett - Road To Riches.
This represents an average strength of +6.35lb against predicted fields. His previous highest was +3.46lb.
Although he doesn't have the number of clear chances Walsh and Geraghty do, nor the volume of entries, Russell does have the influential support of Gigginstown Stud, which invariably has plenty of bullets to fire at the handicaps.
At 17.016/1 on Betfair, based on our statistics Russell represents good value in the market to be the Festival's leading rider. For those wanting to trade during the Festival, it may pay to hold your nerve and back him at the end of the first day. With those ahead of him in the betting likely to have struck at least once, his odds may be extremely juicy leading into the days where his better chances lie.
Read Part 1 and Part 2 of our Cheltenham Top Jockey series.
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