Can St. Pierre beat Diaz and retain his title?

Can St. Pierre beat Diaz and retain his title?

By Michael Gales Mar 8, 2013

Tweet

UFC 158 betting on March 16th sees Georges St. Pierre step into the octagon with Nick Diaz. But coming in off a loss and a drug suspension, does the former Strikeforce champion have what it takes to upset the champ in Montreal?

St. Pierre vs Diaz – Georges favourite for grudge match

Current welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre 1.216* is the big favourite at Pinnacle Sports to retain his belt, and win his 11th consecutive fight in this eagerly anticipated bout with MMA ‘bad boy’ Nick Diaz 4.950* at UFC 158. The two fighters were originally scheduled for a bout back in 2011 until St. Pierre was injured in the build-up.

The champion will be fighting in front of a partisan Canadian crowd, who will be hoping their man can keep his 100% record on home soil – St. Pierre has won all of his ten fights in Canada.

GSP has an impressive UFC record – 23-2-0 – and hasn’t been defeated since 2007, ten fights ago. Of course, that period includes a long layover between 2011/12 due to a knee injury. The 31-year-old will enter the cage with a one” height disadvantage over the man he called “the most disrespectful human being I’ve ever met”, standing at 5’ 11”, but he’ll still possess a two” (76”) reach advantage over his opponent.

Last time out St. Pierre returned from a year-long layoff to beat the interim champion Carlos Condit at UFC 154 via unanimous decision. In fact, six of his last seven fights have gone the distance with the judges ruling in the Canadian’s favour.

Nick Diaz – 26-8-0 – returns from a 12-month drug suspension and is understandably a 4.950* underdog. However, with 11 wins in succession – including victories over Paul Daley, BJ Penn and K.J Noons – before losing to Condit last time out at UFC 143, Diaz will be no pushover and is notorious for his aggressive boxing and exceptional Jiu Jitsu skills.

The six foot 29-year-old southpaw is desperate to avenge his defeat against Condit – that some pundits believed was dubious – and will be looking to upset the odds at UFC 158.

Diaz’s striking ability gives him a chance

If Diaz is to upset the world of MMA at UFC 158 there is a good chance a strike will cause the damage.

The challenger is known throughout the MMA for the amount of strikes he throws, which sees him land almost double St-Pierre’s (3.71) strikes per minute (6.03), albeit with a lesser degree of accuracy (43% to 54%).
Diaz couples his workload with the ability to hit hard – due to his solid boxing technique – and possesses the natural instinct to knock out his opponents.

The American has an impressive 13 knockout victories on his resume, compared to the eight of St-Pierre.

Diaz’ southpaw status will also provide an advantage – St Pierre has only fought two southpaws in his time in the UFC, Frank Trigg in 2005 (submission) and Pete Spratt (submission).

Another interesting statistic is that the champion absorbs just 1.19 strikes per minute due to his 75% defence success rate. Compare this to Diaz, who gets tagged roughly 3.45 times a minute – however, Diaz is likely to be more open to counter-attacks as he is usually the aggressor.

That’s not to say the champion can’t strike – he is one of the most technical and efficient strikers in the UFC – but Diaz’s aggressive brawling style is more likely to end a fight compared to St-Pierre’s measured approach. Six of the American’s last 11 wins have been TKOs.

St-Pierre dominant on the mat

St-Pierre is a fantastic wrestler and Diaz has struggled with solid wrestlers in the past, with three defeats against Diego Sanchez, Joe Riggs, and Sean Sherk – who are not considered to be in the same league as GSP.

The champion’s takedowns and control on the mat are fantastic. St-Pierre averages 4.3 takedowns over 15 minutes with a success rate of 78%, while Diaz musters just 1.52 takedowns with a success rate of just 33%.

Not only strong as the aggressor, St-Pierre has a solid 86% defence against takedowns compared to Diaz who rebuffs just 64% of his opponents’ attacks.

Both fighters are black belts in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, however Diaz is considered to have more craft when it comes to submissions.

The American has won eight bouts via submission, including three of his last seven victories, while the champion has five submission victories in 22 wins and hasn’t made an opponent tap out since 2007.

The stats show that St-Pierre averages 1.23 submission attempts every 15 minutes, which is slightly more than the 1.13 of Diaz. Therefore the American appears to be more efficient in his subs, using them more sparingly but to more deadly effect.

With this said, GSP has defeated BJ Penn – one of the world’s great submission fighters – twice in ground battles, thanks to his submission defence. If the fight ends up in a ground battle, GSP’s excellent submission defence could be key.

Distance could be key for St-Pierre

Both fighters will enter the cage in good condition, despite just one fight in 12 months for St-Pierre and none for Diaz.

St-Pierre is a brute of a fighter and is one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world. The champion’s ability to both defend and initiate takedowns is testament to this, while his top control is second-to-none.

Diaz will be constantly engaged in a battle of strength for the duration and how much this will affect him could be key to determining the winner.

With his last five fights ending in decision wins, it is no surprise that St-Pierre’s fights average 12.09 minutes, while the longer the fight goes the more difficult it will become for Diaz who has lost six of his eight defeats by decision.

Both fighters endurance levels are amongst the best in the UFC, so if the fight reaches the latter stages, it will be interesting to see who will prevail, as GSP hasn’t fought anyone with an engine as good as Diaz in the Championship rounds.

Click here for the best St. Pierre vs. Diaz UFC 158 betting odds

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please contact the author.

*Odds subject to change