Patrick Reed, one of The Punter’s picks in California
Outsiders have won the last six renewals of this week's US PGA Tour event so our man has backed a bevy of big-priced players from the off. Read Steve's thoughts on the Humana Challenge here....
Tournament History
This will be the 53rd staging of the Humana Challenge, formally the Bob Hope Classic. Previously played over five rounds, it was reduced to four last year. It's a pro-am, so ready yourself for some painful coverage over the first three days but the coast will be clear after that -the amateurs don't play on Sunday.
Venue
La Quinta, California
Course Details
PGA West (Palmer Course), par 72, 6950 yards -Stroke Index in 2012 - 69.91
PGA West (Nicklaus Course), par 72, 6924 yards
La Quinta Country Club, par 72, 7060 yards
All three tracks are very easy resort courses- see links below for more details. The field play the three in rotation before the Palmer Course hosts the final round on Sunday.
Useful Sites
Event Site
Course Details
Further Course Details
Tee Times
Weather Forecast
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports at 9.00pm on each of the four days
Last Five Winners (90 holes prior to 2012)
2012 - Mark Wilson -24
2011 - Jhonattan Vegas -27 (Playoff)
2010 - Bill Haas -30
2009 - Pat Perez -33
2008 - D J Trahan -26
What will it take to win the Humana Challenge?
It was in this event, back in 1999, that David Duval hit 59 in the final round to win, so it goes without saying that the ability to go low and make plenty of birdies is essential.
Last year's victor, Mark Wilson, isn't known for his length off the tee but the four previous winners were all big-hitters that scored well on the par fives and as last year's event was a stop-start affair played in high winds, it may make sense to treat Wilson's win with a small degree of scepticism and concentrate on the Driving Distance and Par Five Performance stats.
Is there an angle in?
A number of players have played well at both this event and the Waste Management Phoenix Open, with Wilson, Phil Mickelson and Kenny Perry all winning both events recently. It makes sense, because that event's also played on a fairly generous desert track.
The True South Classic, played at Annandale, is another event that's worth looking at closely - Bill Haas, Chad Campbell and D.J Trahan are all recent Humana Challenge champs that have also won the TSC.
The last five winners have all missed the cut at the Sony Open, the week before they won here. A quirky little stat but it's not entirely surprising. The venue for the Sony, Waialae, is a completely different test to this one but having played a couple of rounds, under tournament conditions after a lengthy break, even though the venue hasn't necessarily suited, the pipe-opener has proven to be a useful exercise.
Is there an identikit winner?
Outsiders have a tremendous record and each of the last six winners went off at very big prices.
It used to be an event very much suited to the mature and patient pro that could handle the long rounds with the amateurs but, last year's result aside, young rookies and maidens have found success of late. Four of the five winners preceding Wilson were winning for the first time and DJ Trahan, in 2008, was winning just his second PGA Tour event.
Plenty of rookies will draw inspiration from Russell Henley's remarkable victory at last week's Sony Open and on the raw and inexperienced big hitters is where I've been focussing my attention.
In-Play Tactics
As detailed in Paul Krishnamurty's Find Me A 100 Winner piece, a number of players traded below 3.02/1 in last year's event and in each of the five renewals prior to that, at least one player traded at odds-on and failed to get the job done. This is definitely an event to get your trading boots on in the final round.
Market Leaders
Brandt Snedeker is arguably the best putter in the world right now, so in what many would perceive to be a putting contest, it makes sense that the 2012 FedEx Cup champ should head the market. He looked in good nick at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions a fortnight ago and finished tied 8th here twelve months ago but given he usually needs to come from off the pace on a Sunday to win, he's short enough at just 15.5n/a.
Matt Kuchar very nearly collared Bill Haas here three years ago and was in fine form at last week's Sony but you couldn't describe him as prolific and after a couple of demanding weeks in Hawaii, he could possibly be a bit jaded.
Last week's runner-up, Tim Clark, has form figures in this event reading 2-5-2 and the chances are, he'll contend again, but will he get across the line? He looked to be putting up a determined effort last week but in truth he was always just hanging on to Henley's coattails and one has to wonder how he would have reacted had the youngster stuttered. He's highly likely to be in the shake-up but given how rarely he crosses the line in front, taking odds of just 18.5n/a is not remotely appealing.
The only other player trading below 25.024/1 is Phil Mickelson, who's making his seasonal reappearance this week. It's never easy gauging which Lefty will turn up, especially after a break, but given he's won this event twice from just eight starts and given he finished 2012 in fine fettle; he's the only one towards the head of the market I fancy.
Selections
I felt compelled to get Phil Mickelson onside at odds of 19.5n/a. If he doesn't turn up so be it but he proved at last year's AT & T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, as he has done so many times in the past, that he's more than capable of winning at a decent price in an early season event that he's won before and I'm more than happy to get him onside at the odds. After that though, it's outsiders all the way.
A number of late invites were added to the field yesterday and one of them, Ben Crane, should never have been as big as 140.0139/1. He's played in the event seven times, with a fifth place in 2004 and eighth last year the highlights. I gratefully gobbled up the 140.0139/1 before bulking up my wager at a bit less.
Big-hitting Kyle Stanley looked like golf's next big thing after he won in Phoenix last year, just one week after blowing a great chance at the Farmers Insurance. He managed a second round 65 to make the cut at last week's Sony but finished way down the field after shooting 68-73 on the weekend. He'll be far better suited to this week's test and I felt he was worth chancing at a big price.
Graham DeLaet missed the cut last week, so he fits that trend, and he finished in the top-20 on debut two years ago. I'm convinced the big-hitting Canadian can win on the PGA Tour and this week looks a good fit.
I backed big-bombing Jason Kokrak at a huge price last year when after a smart start (68-66) he blew his chances with a third round 78. He impressed me in the mix at the Frys.Com last year when he finished second and I couldn't leave him out this year.
Luke List fits the big-hitting rookie angle perfectly and so does Patrick Reed, who was also one of those added to the field yesterday. He missed the cut last week but played the par fives in five under par! This will be much more to his liking than fiddly Waialae and if I had just one pick this week, he'd be the one.
And just in case there's to be a return to the identikit veteran winner I've chanced both Stephen Ames and Bart Bryant and barmy prices.
Selections
Phil Mickelson @ 19.5n/a
Ben Crane @ an average of 130.0129/1
Graham DeLaet @ 180.0179/1
Kyle Stanley @ 180.0179/1
Jason Kokrak @ 270.0269/1
Luke List @ 300.0299/1
Patrick Reed @ 300.0299/1
Stephen Ames @ 360.0359/1
Bart Bryant @ 1000.0n/a
I'll be back tomorrow with the In-Play Blog at the conclusion of round one of the Abu Dhabi Championship.
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter
Комментариев нет:
Отправить комментарий