Alexander Buttner should make a rare start at left-back
Michael Cox thinks Sir Alex Ferguson shouldn't rest too many stars for his trip to Upton Park.
West Ham v Manchester United, Saturday 17:15, ITV1.
Match Odds: West Ham 5.14/1, Manchester United 1.784/5, The Draw 4.03/1.
Sir Alex Ferguson is likely to rest some players for this FA Cup third round tie - but will be reluctant to leave out too many big names, because Sam Allardyce's West Ham will provide a tough challenge at Upton Park.
Allardyce is still without Andy Carroll, so Carlton Cole will spearhead the 4-5-1 system. Kevin Nolan will return from suspension to provide Cole's closest support from the centre of the pitch, but Mohamed Diame is still unavailable, so Matt Taylor could continue in an unfamiliar central midfield role, although it's also possible that James Tomkins could step forward to play in the centre of midfield. He never appears particularly comfortable there, but could be the perfect man to track Manchester United's deep-lying forward.
Ferguson has indicated Michael Carrick and Patrice Evra will be rested, which suggests Paul Scholes and Alexander Buttner will both start. Wayne Rooney is still out, and it wouldn't be a surprise if Robin van Persie is rested. Javier Hernandez seems certain to start, with Shinji Kagawa probably playing behind him, and Danny Welbeck on the flank.
This will be a contrast of styles, and a key factor will be the tempo of the game. West Ham will want to make this a fast-paced, energetic scrap in the centre of midfield - a classic FA Cup tie. Cole and Nolan will provide a physical threat going forward, and the other midfielders should get forward well - Manchester United must do the dirty things well, particularly winning the second balls following aerial challenges.
On the other hand, Ferguson will want a calmer tempo and a game based around passing. Scholes will be crucial in cooling the game and playing sensible sideways passes, and as the midfielder least suited to an aggressive, volatile game in the middle of the pitch, he'll be particularly keen to dominate the play. Tom Cleverley is likely to play alongside him, and provides more mobility - although he can't leave Scholes unoccupied. Allardyce will probably tell Nolan to stick tight to Scholes, preventing him from hitting diagonal passes.
Another crucial game is Cole against Nemanja Vidic. The Serbian centre-back had a very difficult time on his last trip to Upton Park - conceding a penalty when bringing down Cole, then being fortunate not to be sent-off for hauling down Demba Ba. Vidic will be reasonably confident of handling Cole in the air, and West Ham must get runners up to their striker - Nolan will certainly do that, but Ricardo Vaz Te will also be important.
Vaz Te will be a key player in general - if, as expected, Buttner starts at left-back, Vaz Te will fancy his chances of getting in behind the Dutch left-back, who attacks energetically and can be lured into unnecessary challenges - although the Portuguese winger has only managed one goal this season.
Upfront, the pace of Hernandez is likely to force West Ham to play deep, which should force the home side back and open up space in the midfield, benefitting United's creative talents. Kagawa, if he starts, has a fine opportunity to prove he deserves a place in next weekend's Premier League game against Liverpool - a match Rooney is unlikely to be available for.
This has the classic feeling of a United comeback game. They have a terrible record of conceding the first goal this season, and Ferguson's rotation is likely to give West Ham an early boost - although he'll keep some stars back on the bench, ready to win the game late on. Manchester United to be trailing at half-time, but winning at full-time, can be backed at 25.024/1.
Ultimately, Ferguson's selection will be key - expect the Match Odds to change significantly as news of his starting XI breaks.
Recommended Bets
West Ham / Manchester United in Half Time / Full Time at 25.024/1
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