How Does the Winter Break Affect Soccer Betting?

How Does the Winter Break Affect Soccer Betting?

By Michael Gales Jan 4, 2013

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Soccer bettors often underestimate the effect the European winter break can have on teams. Pinnacle Sports investigated ten seasons worth of data for La Liga, Serie A and the Bundesliga to reveal the startling impact it has on soccer betting.

Title Chasing Teams Can’t Maintain Form

Across 10 seasons in La Liga, Serie A and Bundesliga, the three top-placed teams all perform worse after the winter break.

This drop in form is indicated by the teams scoring less and conceding more goals in the second part of the season, which contribute to both a drop in their win percentages, as well as an increase in the number of their defeats.

The average over the 10 seasons shows that the win percentage of the top three placed teams drops from 64.8% to 53.45% after the winter break – a difference of 11.35%. The average loss percentage also rises to 8.1%, from 15% to 23%.

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Surprisingly, teams who top the division before the winter break see – on average – the biggest drop in form of the top three when they return. Their win percentage drops 12%, while teams in second and third see an average fall off of 8.7% and 11.38% respectively.

Although the leaders suffer the biggest drop off in win percentage, their loss percentage raises the least of the top three – from 9% to 16% (+7%).  The loss percentage of teams in second and third increase by 8% (to 23%) and 9% (to 28%) respectively.

This suggests that the top team is usually more content with drawing games, while second and third have a more do-or-die approach to games in an attempt to close the gap at the top by risking the draw for a win.

This idea is reinforced by the fact that the second-place side has a smaller drop in win percentage than the top team after the break – 8% compared to 12%.

Relegation Threatened Clubs Improve Dramatically 

In contrast to the teams chasing silverware, the bottom three clubs at the winter break show a vast improvement when they return.

Their average win percentage almost doubles after the break, rising from a paltry 15.2% to 29.5% – an increase of 14.3%.

The improvement in win percentage also coincides with a 14% drop in loss percentage, which plunges from 57% to 43%.

The data proves that teams struggling at the bottom see a dramatic improvement after the winter break, which may be down to the manager and team management to implement some much-needed changes over the holiday period.

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The break gives the teams a chance to regroup, work on tactics and eradicate issues that have seen them enter the winter break in the bottom three.

This is backed up by the bottom clubs’ average improvement for goals scored and conceded after the winter break.

For instance, teams in the bottom three score – on average – 0.26 more goals per game and concede 0.3 fewer. This improvement can be seen in their overall goal difference dropping from -13.9 to -5.7 after the winter break.

Interesting Facts Across Three Leagues

With the data highlighting a drop-off in form for the top three teams and an improvement for the bottom three clubs after the winter break, it is vital to see what impact this has on the finishing league positions.

The team leading their respective division at the winter break wins the league 66% of the time. In the Bundesliga, the leaders won 60% of the time, compared to 70% of the time in La Liga and Serie A.

At the opposite end of the table, an average of 1.9 of the bottom three Bundesliga clubs (at the time of the winter break) were left in the relegation places at the end of the season, compared to 1.4 in La Liga and 1.5 in Serie A.

Interestingly, in 2010-11 all three clubs in the La Liga relegation zone during the winter break avoided the drop, which has also only happened once in Serie A during the 2007-08 season.

This phenomenon has never happened in the Bundesliga over the last ten seasons, where teams languishing at the bottom at Christmas are unlikely to escape the drop zone. In fact, the Bundesliga has seen all three clubs relegated on three occasions, while it has happened just once in La Liga and Serie A over the past decade.

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