The final weekend of pool action in the Heineken Cup promises plenty of exciting action
The pool stage of this season's Heineken Cup reaches its conclusion this weekend. All six pool winners go through to the quarter finals, but which teams will progress as the best two second placed sides? Richard O'Hagan provides some suggestions for the weekend's games.
Biarritz v Harlequins
Friday, 2000hrs GMT
Sky Sports 2
Harlequins have already qualified for the quarter-finals and are sure of a home tie as well, so don't be surprised if they rest a key player or two for this game. Biarritz still have an outside chance of finishing as one of the two best second placed teams in the group stage, although they need a bonus point win here as well as other results to go their way. Taking all of those factors into consideration, this looks like a narrow home win.
Recommended Bet: Back Biarritz at 1.261/4 to win
Connacht v Zebre
Friday, 2000hrs GMT
Sky Sports 2 Red Button
Neither side can make the next round so only have pride to play for. No side has shipped more points than Zebre's 199 at this stage of the competition and only two have scored fewer than their 52, so expect this to be a big home win.
Recommended Bet: Back Connacht at 2.021/1 to open the scoring with a try
Castres v Ulster
Saturday, 1335hrs GMT
Sky Sports 3
Castres still have at least a mathematical chance of finishing second in Pool 4. Ulster could, theoretically, lose top spot and miss out on the quarter-finals (although both are unlikely). Complacency is no part of the Ulster game plan, though, so expect this to be a low scoring battle between two very determined sides, with the visitors just shading it at the end.
Recommended Bet: Back Ulster to win by fewer than 12.5 points
Glasgow v Northampton
Saturday, 1335GMT
Sky Sports 3 Red Button
Northampton need a bonus point win to have any hope of progressing to the next round. This means scoring four tries in an away game. That is going to be hard against a side who, despite not having won a pool match yet, average only 17 points conceded per game. Northampton should win this, but it won't be easy and they probably won't be going into the hat for the quarter-finals.
Recommended Bet: Back Northampton to open the scoring with a try
Montpellier v Toulon
Saturday, 1540hrs GMT
Sky Sports 3
This promises to be a humdinger of a clash between two strong French sides. Toulon are already in the quarter-finals with a guaranteed home tie. With 18 points already Montpellier are practically assured of a spot as one of the two best second placed teams, but a win here would assure them of that. They have the incentive and the home field advantage, but Toulon are unbeaten in Pool 6 and won't relish losing that record to a domestic rival such as Montpellier. Expect the home side to shade it, but only just.
Recommended Bet: Back Montpellier to win by fewer than 12.5 points
Cardiff Blues v Sale
Saturday, 1540hrs GMT
This game is so irrelevant that Sky are not even planning to show it on their 'red button' channel. Neither side can progress in the tournament and they have a grand total of six points between them. Home advantage should tell here for Cardiff, who have looked stronger at home than on the road, but this ia a game between two unpredictable sides so take care where you place your money.
Recommended Bet: Back Cardiff Blues to win if they trade above evens at any time before kick-off
Scarlets v Clermont Auvergne
Saturday, 1800hrs GMT
Sky Sports 3
Clermont are unbeaten. The Scarlets have yet to win a game and have shipped points almost as readily as Amazon ships DVDs. However, this game is likely to be played in sub-zero temperatures, so don't expect it to be a high scoring one and bear in mind that the cold weather makes betting upon the points margin riskier than usual because the effect of the pitch conditions becomes harder to predict.
Recommended Bet: Back Clermont Auvergne at 1.162/13
Exeter Chiefs v Leinster
Saturday, 1800hrs GMT
Sky Sports 3 Red Button
Another game likely to be played in freezing conditions. Exeter are out of contention, but Leinster are another side needing a win to secure second spot. The Chiefs came within a kick of winning the game between the two sides in the opening round and this could go the same way, with goal kicking again crucial to the result.
Recommended Bet: Back Leinster to open the scoring with a penalty
Munster v Racing Metro
Sunday, 1245hrs GMT
Sky Sports 2
Racing would have to do something they have failed to do all tournament and win a bonus point to stand any hope of making it out of the pool stage. Even then, they would need at least four other well-placed sides to lose. Munster still hope to make the quarter-finals but need a big win to have any chance. At home and in what may be the best playing conditions of the weekend outside of France they may just do it.
Recommended Bet: Back Munster at 1.211/5 to win
Saracens v Edinburgh
Sunday, 1245hrs GMT
Sky Sports 2 Red Button
Saracens could be overtaken by Munster if they lose this game and the Irishmen win. Fortunately for them they are playing one of only two sides yet to win a point in the pool competition. Edinburgh have been good in patches but seem unable to put an entire game together, resulting in them averaging a mere 5.8 points per game so far. Don't expect that to change on Sunday.
Recommended Bet: Back Saracens/Saracens in the half time/full time market
Leicester Tigers v Toulouse
Sunday, 1500hrs GMT
Sky Sports 2
The schedule planners must be rubbing their hands with glee, as the pool stage saves the best game of this week til last. Last weekend's draw against the Ospreys hurt Leicester as they fell back into second place. With only a two point advantage, though, Toulouse know that they cannot afford to slip up here. Weather conditions may play to the Tigers' strength, though, encouraging tight forward play rather than running rugby. This should be a narrow win for the home side, but quarter-final qualification for both teams.
Recommended Bet: Back Leicester Tigers at 1.538/15
Treviso v Ospreys
Sunday, 1500hrs GMT
Sky Sports Red Button
Nothing rests on this game, the Ospreys' chances of qualification having been dissipated by that draw with Leicester. What may be relevant is the sheer number of injuries they are carrying, with both Ryan Jones and Richard Hibberd doubtful to add to their pre-existing woes. That could let in a Treviso side who have been surprisingly competitive throughout this year's competition.
Recommended Bet: Back Treviso at 1.251/4 to win
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