Handicappers' Corner: An A+ for Henderson's Plan B

Oscara Dara on his way to winning the Lanzarote Hurdle

"The most successful people are those who are good at Plan B," once opined the prominent mathematician James Yorke - and the bearded septuagenarian wasn't referring to any karaoke winners who'd tried their hand at British rap and hip-hop.

A logical approach to problem-solving shouldn't be confined to dealing with mathematical "chaos" and can also reap dividends in horse racing circles. Perhaps the best example of this is the big-money French import who was being groomed by his new connections as a potential Chelthenam Gold Cup contender until jumping flaws started getting in the way. Big Buck's, of course, literally hasn't looked back since being rerouted to the World Hurdle instead, winning that race four times as part of his record-breaking run of 18 wins.

Big Buck's certainly isn't the first horse to have profited from a similar change of plan. One Man had failed miserably on all three previous visits to the Cheltenham Festival (including when a short-priced favourite for the Gold Cup in 1996) before finally breaking his duck at the meeting in the 1998 Queen Mother Champion Chase, when tackling the minimum trip for the first time since his hurdling debut six-and-a-half years earlier. Beech Road, meanwhile, had his novice chasing career aborted (after two falls) mere weeks before springing a 50/1 surprise in the 1989 Champion Hurdle.

Which brings us to Oscara Dara (Timeform rating h150p), who enjoyed a lucrative change of plan when landing the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton on Saturday. The eight-year-old had long appealed to us as one to pay his way in 2012/13, though it was as a prospective novice chaser which earned him his place in the current edition of Timeform's Horses to Follow annual. Although his chasing debut second behind Cantlow at Plumpton last month seemed satisfactory enough (earning him rating of c135p), trainer Nicky Henderson reportedly wasn't 100% happy with the gelding's jumping that day and, following a mixed display on his most recent schooling session at home, the decision was taken to throw Plan A out of the window.

That decision was surely made easier by the fact Oscara Dara had unfinished business over hurdles - his only defeat in that sphere had come when finishing fourth (behind stable-companions Darlan and Captain Conan) at Aintree last spring - and he duly showed improved form upped in trip at Kempton. Admittedy, his performance wasn't without its clumsy moments (notably a blunder at the last) despite the smaller obstacles, but the manner in which Oscara Dara travelled through the race suggests there is even better to come - indeed, he wouldn't be out of place in graded company on this evidence.

The likelihood is that Oscara Dara will still be competitively handicapped even once reassessed for his Kempton win and similar comments apply to final-flight faller Captain Sunshine (h135+), who'd probably have finished second in the Lanzarote but for that spill - a notable achievement considering he'd been left with far too much to do under an overly-patient ride.

Handicaps are most unlikely to be on the agenda for The New One (h151p), who returned from a three-month absence to maintain his unbeaten record over hurdles with a wide-margin win in the Grade 2 Leamington Hurdle at Warwick later on Saturday afternoon. As that lay-off would suggest, things haven't gone entirely to plan at home for The New One - Twiston-Davies reports that he'd had a "few niggling problems" since winning twice in October - but that break may actually work in his favour with regards to his Cheltenham Festival prospects as he won't go there overraced.

Indeed, he fully deserves to be prominent in the ante-post markets for both the Neptune and Albert Bartlett, though a speculative entry in the World Hurdle would also be interesting. The last-named race is very much up for grabs this season due to Big Buck's being sidelined through injury, with the connections of several top-class performers - notably Tidal Bay (h158+, c174) and Oscar Whisky (h167+) - already contemplating a Plan B tilt at that race instead of their original intended Cheltenham Festival target.

The New One clearly has further improvement to find in order to mix it with the likes of that pair, though it's worth remembering that Iris's Gift was actually rated 2lb lower than him before finishing runner-up as a novice (to Baracouda) in a vintage renewal of the staying championship back in 2003. And as Oscara Dara showed last weekend, it often pays to be flexible with plans.

Timeform's top-rated novice hurdlers:
Dodging Bullets 154
Jezki 152p
Pont Alexandre 152p
Rule The World 151p
The New One 151p
Cause of Causes 150p
My Tent Or Yours 150p
Melodic Rendezvous 145p
Waaheb 145p 
Puffin Billy 144P

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