Ayr Placepot: Thursday January 3

Today's Placepot comes from Ayr

Keith Melrose tackles today's only jumps meeting in hope of landing the Placepot.

12:30 - Had all eight stood their ground, we'd have taken on hurdling debutant No Deal with the experienced Harry The Lemmon, but with Ballybogey pulling out we'll probably need to take both to guarantee us avoiding first-leg embarrassment. Make no mistake, the lack of a previous run over hurdles is about the only doubt surrounding No Deal, his bumper form and pedigree marking him out as a potentially useful stayer. 

13:00 - Although better contested in terms of numbers, this novice looks little better than the one taken in smooth fashion by Real Milan on his chasing debut, so he looks difficult to get away from in leg two. He's bound to be popular, but we can at least save lines by including him as a banker.

13:30 - Four are entered in this low-grade handicap chase and, with it being difficult to say with certainty that any of the four can be ruled out, taking them all has to be the approach. 

14:00 - This is quite an interesting handicap chase for conditional riders, with a case to be made for several in the context of this race. It makes sense to include Tipsy Dara as our lead selection, as he's generally been in fine form in races run under similar conditions, while he has the assistance of a crack claimer in Lucy Alexander. Second selection Et Maintenant is perhaps more counter-intuitive; he sports a Timeform squiggle beside his rating, though he's been pretty good at running to that rating of late, hitting the frame on all completed starts in 2012, while his last two runner-up efforts (both off the same mark) have come under today's rider Grant Cockburn. 

14:30 - Both Bene Lad (from a lower hurdles mark) and Heart o' the West (well treated on old form) would have been interesting, but they come from yards which haven't been among the winners for a while so they make for risky propositions, too risky when you consider the presence of Rowan Road. Put simply, Rowan Road is difficult to get away from in such a lowly heat, on a hat-trick and racing off a 2 lb lower mark than for her win at Catterick last week. This is over a significantly shorter trip, though the manner in which she's travelled for her recent wins would give sufficient encouragement that she'll cope with today's test.

15:00 - A good few of these arrive in decent heart, but we're going to pick out a couple in hope of squeezing through should we get this far. Pas Trop Tard has won three of his last four and, although it looks as though he won't get an easy time of it up front, so long as jockey Michael McAlister is happy enough to sit prominently he shouldn't be far away again. Second choice is Leith Walk, who won a similar race last season by a wide margin and has looked to be working back to something like good form so far this winter. A return to two and a half miles could be in her favour these days and she's unlikely to carry much of the pool.

Selections:

12:30 - 2, 4
13:00 - 2
13:30 - 1, 2, 3, 4
14:00 - 4, 5
14:30 - 7
15:00 - 2, 7
= 32 lines