Abu Dhabi Championship: Desert lover Stenson worth backing more than once

Will Henrik Stenson lead after day one in Abu Dhabi?

Mike Norman looks at this week's mouth-watering European Tour event and recommends a number of wagers from Betfair's side markets...

Shock horror - yet another South African wins on home soil.

Seriously though, shock in the fact that the South African to win last week's Volvo Golf Champions was Louis Oosthuizen, horror because I readily opposed him.

There's obviously a tinge of sarcasm in the above paragraph because Oosthuizen was the pre-tournament favourite and held an outstanding chance of winning on paper. But after watching him snatch defeat from the jaws of victory so many times in recent months there was some genuine surprise on my part in the manner in which he won.

But win he did, and that's exactly what someone will do come Sunday afternoon in Abu Dhabi. Steve Rawlings has previewed the event in full here which leaves me to make no mention of Messrs McIlroy and Woods, or the European Ryder Cup captaincy announcement.

Instead I've taken a look at some of Betfair's alternative markets (alternative to the Winner market that is) in search of a profitable week in the desert.

First Round Leader

I wouldn't put anyone off backing - ok, I have to mention them - Rory McIlroy (15.014/1) or Tiger Woods (20.019/1) in this market as both have morning tee starts and that is vital around this golf course.

A desert shamal (strong wind to you and me) blows sand across the golf course on most afternoons making low scoring nigh on impossible. Even if the wind doesn't get up too severely the morning starters generally have a huge advantage here so it's a straightforward task to dismiss anyone with an afternoon tee time.

I have a hunch that neither McIlroy nor Woods will top the leaderboard after day one however; the newly-tightened Abu Dhabi GC set-up won't suit the latter, while new clubs, a new putter, and even a new cap might distract Rory from his usual game!

Instead take a chance on Francesco Molinari (60.059/1, Henrik Stenson (38.037/1), and Thongchai Jaidee (70.069/1).

Molinari is a huge price to lead after the first round given that only five players are more than two points shorter than him in this week's Winner market. The Italian is regarded as one of the straightest hitters off the tee, is an accurate iron player, and warmed up for this event with a top-10 finish in Durban last week.

Stenson meanwhile is a proven desert golf player who still resides in Dubai. His recent form - including a win at the SA Open Championship - has hinted that his game is very nearly back to its best, and he could go very well this week. Jaidee has also been in good form recently (third last week) and led after round one seven days ago. Fingers crossed for a repeat.

Top 5 Finish

Myself and other betting.betfair golf contributors have already given our thoughts in Betfair's new Fixed Odds market in which you can back a player to finish each way ( the odds a place, 1,2,3,4,5), but I'll also throw the aforementioned Stenson - available to back at 8.07/1 in this market - and Paul Casey (8.415/2) into the mix.

I've already put forward Stenson's case for playing well this week and he would be my idea of a solid, reliable investment. It's difficult to envisage him not being in contention at some point.

Casey is a two-time winner around this venue, and after a few months in the wilderness following injury he has more than hinted at a return to his very best form with three top-10 finishes (and five top-20 finishes) in his last five events.

Recommended Bets

Back Henrik Stenson @ 38.037/1 1st Rnd Leader
Back Francesco Molinari @ 60.059/1 1st Rnd Leader
Back Thongchai Jaidee @ 70.069/1 1st Rnd Leader
Back Henrik Stenson @ 8.07/1 Top 5 Finish
Back Paul Casey @ 8.415/2 Top 5 Finish