Who will profit from new tyres at German GP?

Who will profit from new tyres at German GP?

By Michael Gales Jul 5, 2013

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With exploding tyres still on the forefront of F1 fans’ minds, Formula One heads to the Nurburgring for the German GP. With Pirelli announcing a change to a Kevlar-belted tyre for round 9, who will profit the most from the change in tyres?

Nurburgring – Fast & Furious

Formula One returns to the world famous Nurburgring in the Eifel mountains for the 2013 German Grand Prix.

As part of its race-share agreement with Hockenheim, the famous venue returns for the first time since 2011 and coincides with what is undoubtedly home favourites Mercedes’ first realistic chance to claim a first home win as a team in nearly half a century.

The track has been through various incarnations since it hosted the inaugural German Grand Prix of the World Championship era in 1951. The modern circuit is fast and flowing, mostly made up of medium speed corners.

The first corner is particularly challenging at the Nurburgring, especially after the start where it is often the scene of accidents. Qualifying at the front of the grid is vital to ensure a clean getaway.

Kevlar tyres under the spotlight

Pirelli have reverted back to the Kevlar-belted rear tyres for both the medium and soft compound for the German GP, which have already been tested at the Friday practice sessions in Canada. The announcement comes after a number of tyre failures last time out at Silverstone.

Because of the annual race-share, the Nurburgring is one of the least well-known circuits for Pirelli having only raced their once before. The tyre choice is the same as 2011 but since then the tyres have got softer and faster, so expect a quicker race time with an average of three pit stops for most drivers.

With no tyre data from last year on this circuit, free practice will be particularly important when it comes to assessing how the latest 2013 tyres react in different temperatures and differing fuel loads. This data will essentially decide the strategy for qualifying and the race.

New tyres favour Mercedes

With the change in compound and construction the tyre will be more robust, which may have an impact upon the championship. But who will the new tyre affect the most?

Fundamentally the more aggressive the tyre is for the circuit, the better Ferrari and Lotus perform, while the Red Bull and, particularly, Mercedes struggle.

The Lotus has been very easy on its tyres, allowing them to take advantage of other teams’ problems. The Lotus performs best in hot temperatures and when track is demanding on tyres.  However, the downside for lotus is when the compound is durable which sees the Lotus loose performance and endurance.

The Ferrari meanwhile is not as sympathetic on the tyre in normal conditions.  But relative to Mercedes (rear tyre) and Red Bull  (front tyre) it performs slightly better. Fernando Alonso’s two victories this year came at tracks that were particularly hard on the front tyres and where the Red Bull struggled.

Furthermore, the Kevlar-belted tyre will reduce rear temperatures, giving an enormous advantage to Mercedes, giving them a realistic chance of maintaining their rapid qualifying form into the races.

Correlation data

After proving there was a solid correlation between qualifying position and final race positions throughout the 2012 season (click to read here), we have used the same model to examine the last ten Grand Prix at the Nurburgring to indicate how much influence Formula One bettors can place on the relevance of qualifying as a race performance indicator at the famous circuit.

In the last ten Grand Prix at Nurburgring there has been an average of 20.3 overtakes, while 2011 saw 52 overtakes.

The data shows a 0.47 correlation between qualifying and race position at the Nurburgring racetrack. Only 40% of races correlate showcasing that qualifying at the Nurburgring doesn’t provide a strong predictor of a drivers’ race performance.

30% of polesitters at the past 10 Nurburgring GP’s have gone on to win the race, with the last being Mark Webber in 2009.

Vettel has never won at Nurburgring

With the Nurburgring race a biennial event these days, only three active drivers have actually won at the circuit – Fernando Alonso (twice), Mark Webber and Lewis Hamilton.

That statistic obviously means that Germany’s Sebastian Vettel has, quite astonishingly, never won on home soil – the triple World Champion’s best result in five attempts is second-place to team-mate Webber in that 2009 race.

This is remarkable given that Vettel has secured pole in 35.78% of races in his Formula One career (read here which drivers perform better on pole).

Another interesting fact is that the German has not won any of his 29 race victories in the month of July.

Click here to see the latest German Grand Prix odds.

*Odds subject to change

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