Are Chelsea overrated for Man Utd game?

Are Chelsea overrated for Man Utd game?

By Jack Ratcliffe Aug 22, 2013

Tweet

With Manchester United hosting Chelsea on Monday in the biggest game of the season so far we ask are the Blues – now under Mourinho’s stewardship – traditionally overrated against their Mancunian opposition? And how does this affect handicap betting?

Man Utd: Storming start to the season

Manchester United opened the season with a 4-1 drubbing of Swansea City, removing some of the question marks over whether David Moyes would be an adequate successor to Sir Alex Ferguson. The score destroyed United’s pre-match handicap, which was set at -0.5.

It wasn’t Moyes’ name the crowds were chanting however, but Robin van Persie’s. The former Arsenal man was on fantastic form to bag a brace, with a performance good enough to strike fear into even The Special One’s heart.

One of the Dutchman’s strikes was assisted by Wayne Rooney, who looks increasingly dejected in a red shirt – but almost certainly won’t be wearing a blue one by the time the two teams meet on Monday.

Chelsea: Business as usual for Mourinho

It has been business as usual for Jose Mourinho’s return to the Premier League, who covered the handicap in his first game back as Chelsea manager by successfully dispatching Hull City 2-0 at the Bridge. It looked easy for the Blues, but the game showed that the side is still without a prolific striker, and it will take some time for Mourinho to find his preferred attacking midfield formation.

Both goals against Hull came from the midfield, courtesy of Frank Lampard and Oscar (Lampard also missed a penalty). Can Chelsea continue to produce goals from the middle of the pitch?

Chelsea have covered the handicap in just 35.3% of their games against United since 2008

If you exclude cup games and focus on Premier League matches, Chelsea’s record only improves slightly, covering four of nine meetings (with one push).

Things were more difficult against Aston Villa, where Chelsea won 2-1 but failed to cover the spread of 1.5. Again, the Blues goals came from elsewhere on the pitch – defender Branislav Ivanovic and a Luna own-goal.

Despite Torres’ continuing lack of form, however, Chelsea have managed to cover the handicap in seven of their last ten Premier League outings. United? Just five.

Head-to-head handicaps: Bettors overrate Chelsea?

Chelsea have historically failed to live up to expectations against the Red Devils, covering the handicap in just 35.3% of their meetings (all competitions) since the 2008/09 season. Man Utd also hold the advantage when comparing how many goals they cover the handicap by – an average of 1.03. Chelsea typically cover by 0.83.

Of the 17 encounters since 2008, eight of those were at Old Trafford, with Chelsea covering the spread three times (37.5%). This is slightly better than their typical rate, however, with just eight matches played in Manchester, it’s really too small a sample to suggest that Chelsea are less overrated up north (and it is only by 2.2%). Man Utd are available at 2.480* to win on the 1×2.

Against the Spread Record at Old Trafford

Date

Covering Team

Handicap

05/05/2013

Chelsea

0.25

10/03/2013

Chelsea

0.5

18/09/2013

Man Utd

-0.5

08/05/2011

Man Utd

-0.25

12/04/2010

Man Utd

-0.25

03/04/2010

Chelsea

0.25

09/08/2009

Man Utd

0.25

11/01/2009

Man Utd

-0.25

The two teams split covering the handicap in their four meetings last season, with the Blues and the Reds only covering the spread when on the road. The rivals also covered by the same average number of goals:  0.875 goals (counting split handicaps as 0.25).

Is Chelsea’s current 0 goal handicap for the United game another example of the side being overrated? Will the hype surrounding “The Special One” further inflate public opinion? Or will the knowledge that the Blues desperately need a striker put people off? Answering these questions correctly could be key to winning on the handicap line, and will give very good insight into whether Mourinho an lead Chelsea to the title on his first season back at the Bridge. Chelsea are valued at 3.010* on the 1×2 to beat Man Utd.

Click here to see the latest Premier League odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.