The British Open by numbers: 19 betting trends

The British Open by numbers: 19 betting trends

By Michael Gales Jul 12, 2013

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The British Open is the only Major to be held on a links course – notoriously difficult – meaning playing experience is key to winning the oldest major. Read more about this and 18 other British Open trends before betting on the 2013 winner at Muirfield.

Because of the inclement weather, tight course layout and unique nature, Links golf is a challenge for any golfer. This article looks at 19 British Open winner trends to help the bettor gauge what it takes to win the competition, so they can narrow down the field before picking a winner.

Click here to see the latest British Open odds

0

Curse of entering Open on a win

No Scottish Open or John Deere Classic winner has won the British Open the following week since 1993. Notable Scottish Open and John Deere Classic winners in recent times include Luke Donald (30.270*), Martin Kaymer (69.380*), Graeme McDowell (22.460*), Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson (2.050*) but none have secured the British Open in the same year.

1

Only Ben Curtis has won on debut since 1975

Ben Curtis (367.30) is the only player to win on debut in the British Open since 1975 when he claimed his maiden major win at Royal St George’s in 2003. Eight others have won on debut, but none at Muirfield. This could rule out any debutants before a ball has been hit.

2

Number of Aces at 7th hole at Muirfield since 1981

With 156 players playing at least two rounds at Muirfield and a minimum of 70 players making the cut there will be at least 1808 opportunities for someone to score an ace.

There have been two-recorded hole in ones at the 7th hole par 3 at Muirfield, the first in 1987 by Billy Andrade and the second by Paul McGinley in 1992.

2

British winners in 20 years

There have been only two British winners of the Claret Jug in the past 20 years. Scotland’s Paul Lawrie (123.090*) won at Carnoustie in 1999, while Darren Clarke (489.420*) surprised golf by winning his first major at 42 at Royal St George’s in 2011.

*Padraig Harrington (59.590*) won back-to-back British Open title in 2007 & 2008 but is from the Republic of Ireland, which is not classed as part of Britain.

3

Repeat winners in last two decades

Three players since 1993 have won the British Open more than once. Tiger Woods claimed the title on three occasions in 2000, 2005 & 2006, Padraig Harrington won back-to-back titles in 2007 & 2008, while last years winner Ernie Els (29.220*) added the 2012 title to his previous win in 2002.

7

British Open’s decided by a playoff

Seven British Opens – nearly 1 in 3 – have been decided by a playoff in the past 20 majors on the British Isles. The last came in 2009 when Stuart Cink beat veteran Tom Watson.

9

Past British Open experience key

Six of the last seven British Open winners have played in the British Open more than ten times previously. The winner has participated on average in 8.95 British Opens previously.

Interestingly, it doesn’t appear to matter how well a player has done in the tournament, just so long as they have experience of links golf under the pressure of a major.

12

years as a pro before winning Claret Jug

Professional experience is key. Just one – Ben Curtis in 2003 – of the last ten winners didn’t have at least eight years experience as a professional before winning. To battle through four rounds of a major on a links course is a tough physical and mental challenge, which can test the concentration of every competitor as the12 years average as a pro before winning suggests.

15%

Winners had won either Masters or US Open in same year

Interestingly winning a major the same year is not necessarily a precursor for success in the British Open. Just 15% of winners in the past 20 years have claimed either the Masters title or the US Open prior to the British Open.

16

Major tournaments since Woods last won

Tiger Woods (9.580*) has returned to World No. 1 but his search for his 15th major success continues after 16 major tournaments since his last win at the US Open in 2008.

In those 16 major appearances Woods has finished on average 12th, however he has secured eight top 10 finishes. Woods’ best performance at Muirfield is 28th in 2002.

18

Only 1 repeat major winner since 2009

Remarkably since the domination of Tiger Woods from 2001-2008, there have been 18 different major winners, with only Rory McIlroy (25.410*) – 2011 US Open & 2012 PGA Championship – winning more than one major.

19

Most appearances before winning

After winning in his 19th appearance at the 2011 British Open Darren Clarke was crowned the player with the most appearances before winning the Claret Jug.

Phil Mickelson (19.500*) has won 4 major championships but has struggled historically – Just two top 10 finishes- at the British Open. In his 19th appearance could he equal Clarke’s record?

37

Average age of last five winners

The average age of the winner further enhances the trend that a winner needs experience to claim the British Open. The average age of the winner over the last five years is 37, which has increased from 33 over the past 20 years. The youngest winner was Tiger Woods at 24 in 2000, while the two oldest were the last two – Darren Clarke and Ernie Els – at 42.

45%

Winners in last 20 years have won 1st major at British Open

Nearly half of all British Open winners have won their first major at the British Open. The last was Darren Clarke in 2011, before Louis Oosthuizen (54.700) and Stewart Cink (181.70*) in 2009 and 2010 respectively.

Could Lee Westwood, Luke Donald or Rickie Fowler claim their first major win this year at Muirfield?

64%

Course experience key

The British Open rotates between venues yearly, so is a player more likely to win the British Open if they have played the course before?

64% of winners over the last 15 years – the 2006 Open is discounted as the course had last been used in 1967 – have played the course at least once before winning, showing a clear trend between course experience and winning.

85%

Form a key indicator

Performance by winner before British Open

Year

Masters

US Open

Tour Win

2012

DNP

9

0

2011

DNP

DNP

1

2010

Cut

Cut

1

2009

Cut

27

0

2008

5

36

0

2007

7

Cut

1

2006

3

Cut

2

2005

1

2

2

2004

40

Cut

1

2003

DNP

DNP

0

2002

5

24

1

2001

2

16

0

2000

5

1

4

1999

DNP

DNP

1

1998

1

32

1

1997

7

36

1

1996

18

2

0

1995

45

45

0

1994

35

Cut

3

1993

32

Cut

1

Another clear trend from the last two decades is that success earlier in the season is vital. 85% of the last 20 winners have either won at least one PGA or European Tour event or finished in the top 10 of either the Masters or the US Open prior to arriving at the British Open.

276

Average winning score since 1993

275.5 is the average winning score since 1993, which works out to a score of 68.8 per round. The average winning score at Muirfield over the past 5 British Open events is 8.4 under par (275.6).

300

The Return of big priced winners

Another trend to consider when selecting a British Open winner is the recurrence of big priced winners. With the unpredictable nature of links golf huge winners have been seen in the past decade. Recent big priced winners include Darren Clarke at 125/1, Louis Oosthuizen in 2010 at 200/1 and Ben Crane at a mammoth 300/1. Read here about the role of luck in major championships wins.

7k

Long challenge for players at Muirfield

The Muirfield course has been extended to 7192 yards and will now play as the sixth longest course in the last 20 years at the British Open. This will help the longer hitters, however the rough is penal, and like any links course, will cause problems for errant shots. Winners will need to showcase their power, with precision, as well as a fair share of luck.

Click here to see the latest British Open odds

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*Odds subject to change