How have the odds changed for EPL outrights?

How have the odds changed for EPL outrights?

By EPL Trader Aug 14, 2013

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With the launch of EPL days away, we asked our senior EPL trader for his reflections on the movement we’ve seen thus far in EPL Season Totals. Here are a few thoughts he had to share as your window closes on what even he calls a “great opportunity for profit”:

“We opened our numbers at the start of July, and if you read our earlier article on this, you know we expected quite a bit of movement based on results of the transfer season, and general bettor opinion.

It’s interesting to note that the teams at the top of the table generally have been bet down, while those in the middle and bottom have been bet up. This is a general trend that seems to be true over the course of the last couple of years.”

EPL Outright Changes

Team:

Opener

Current

Change

Chelsea

81.5

81.5

0

Man City

81.5

80.5

-1

Man Utd

80.5

77.5

-3

Arsenal

76.5

70.5

-6

Liverpool

72.5

65.5

-7

Tottenham

69.5

67.5

-2

Everton

52.5

54.5

2

Southampton

47.5

46.5

-1

Newcastle

46.5

46.5

0

Aston Villa

45.5

43.5

-2

WBA

43.5

43.5

0

Swansea

42.5

48.5

6

Fulham

41.5

43.5

2

West Ham

40.5

43.5

3

Sunerland

39.5

42.5

3

Cardiff

38.5

38.5

0

Stoke City

38.5

39.5

1

Norwich City

35.5

41.5

6

Hull

32.5

32.5

0

Crystal Palace

29.5

30.5

1

Unimpressed

Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Spurs have all had points knocked off their totals. The Liverpool number actually got moved to 71.5 after a heartbeat of thought – it was a pretty aggressive opener anyway. Subsequent Suarez noise pushed it as low as 64.5, but it’s been pretty stable where it rests now.

After saying they would spend some of their massive cash reserves, Arsenal have had a terrible transfer season so far, making zero signings of note. (The current rumor has Luis Gustavo of Bayern Munich likely to bolster them at Defensive Midfield, but the season starts Saturday!). Manchester United have also seen their points total fall, partly due to failed signings, partly due to the Rooney situation, and partly due to a generally unimpressive preseason.

The confusing one in this block is Tottenham. Spurs have strengthened significantly, and it looks like they will keep Gareth Bale for at least one more year. If that’s the case, their current number may represent some value.

On the Up

Two teams have seen big bumps in their expected total numbers, and both of them have signed new forwards. Swansea added talent all over the pitch, including the impressive Wilfried Bony. Bettors seem to believe that Bony will help Swansea overcome their scoring doldrums beyond Michu, despite the fact that they also have to contend with the Europa League for the first time.

The other team to get a big boost is Norwich. Despite being defensively solid last year, Norwich were bereft of almost any creativity on offense. They signed Ricky van Wolfsvinkel from Sporting Lisbon, Gary Hooper from Scotland, Leroy Fer, and Nathan Redmond, adding bodies with some talent to the squad. Manager Chris Hughton did reasonably well to keep them up last season with very limited talent – a similar performance with better talent this year is judged to see them safely mid-table."

As always, the question now is to decide where there’s value to be found. Are Norwich and Swansea really as improved as the markets suggest, or will there be an adjustment period to new parts that isn’t being accounted for?

Will clubs like Manchester United and Arsenal, who have been generally inactive, finally move in the weeks to come? Will Bale, Rooney, Suarez and David Luis stay in their present surroundings or will assorted rumours come to fruition? If your inclination on any of the answers is strong, you have an opportunity. It’s window closes Saturday.

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*Odds subject to change