Henderson favourite to avenge defeat

Henderson favourite to avenge defeat

By Michael Gales Aug 28, 2013

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UFC 164’s main event sees UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson defend his title against Anthony Pettis at the BMO Centre in Milwaukee on August 31st. With all of Henderson’s UFC bouts having gone to the scorecards, will either man be able to produce a finish before the final bell?

UFC 164 odds favour Champ

In what will surely be one of the biggest rematches in the MMA lightweight division’s history, UFC champion Benson ‘Smooth’ Henderson gets the chance to avenge his unanimous decision defeat against former WEC champAnthony ‘Showtime’ Pettisat UFC 164.

Since the first fight, the careers of both men couldn’t be more contrasting. Henderson has gone on to win the UFC lightweight title, while Pettis has been on an up-and-down ride en-route to his first UFC title shot.

Champion Henderson is on a seven fight winning streak – three fights as champion – since joining the UFC and is the 1.877* favourite to avenge his defeat. ‘Smooth’ enters the octagon with a record of 19-2-0, with his only other defeat coming way back in 2007 against Rocky Johnson.

The 29-year-old is three-years older than the challenger, and while both pugilists will enter the ring around 155lbs, Pettis holds a slight height and reach advantage.

Challenger Pettis can be backed at 2.030* to turn his career around and win his fourth fight in succession. Pettis got his chance after TJ Grant was forced out with a foot injury.

‘Showtime’ has a record not too dissimilar from Henderson’s – 16-2-0. After beating Henderson, he lost in his next fight to Clay Guilda via unanimous decision. Since then Pettis has fought just three times – due to a number of injuries – compared to Henderson who has taken to the mat in seven fights.

7 KO wins: Challenger holds the striking advantage

Henderson & Pettis Fight Statistics

Striking

Henderson

Pettis

Strikes landed per/min

2.9

2.02

Striking accuracy

44%

43%

Strikes absorbed per/min

1.56

1.41

Defense

66%

65%

Grappling

Henderson

Pettis

Takedown average/15min

2.83

1.51

Takedown accuracy

48%

77%

Takedown defence

65%

65%

Submission average/15min

0.9

1.66

There are few fighters in MMA who are as skillful and creative when striking than the orthodox Pettis. With a huge arsenal of strikes, it comes as no surprise that the challenger has 7 KO career wins (43%).

Pettis lands on average 2.02 strikes per minute with an accuracy of 43%, compared to Henderson who throws more strikes per minute (2.9) and is more accurate (44%).

Southpaw Henderson’s stats prove he is a competent striker, but with only 10% of his wins coming via KO, it is clear he has been effective in using his striking in conjunction with his wrestling to churn out points and decision victories.

Defensively both fighters repel just less than 50% of their opponents’ strikes, while Henderson gets tagged 1.56 times per minute compared to Pettis’ 1.41.

Henderson holds significant wrestling advantage

If Henderson doesn’t match-up in the striking department he makes up for it with an advantage in wrestling.

Since joining the UFC the champion has overcome grappling kingpins Jim Miller and Clay Guida, while he beat wrestling standout Frankie Edgar by keeping his cool to impress the judges.

Pettis, in comparison, has improved his wrestling in recent years and works well off his back, which in turn makes him a dangerous opponent.

In the previous meeting, however, the challenger struggled on the mat against Henderson and the Champion – 2.83 takedowns per 15 minutes – is the more technical wrestler.

Both fighters are evenly matched when it comes to jiu-jitsu though. Henderson has eight career submission wins (and one loss) and has a markedly improved defense. In comparison Pettis has made his opponent tap out six times, and attempts 1.66 submissions every 15 minutes.

Conditioning

Having gone the distance in each of his last eight bouts, Henderson is a well-tuned fighter. The lightweight champion has won each of these fights and gone the full five rounds in his last four.

Pettis is also a fantastic athlete and has three decision victories to his name and showed his prowess last time out against Henderson, with a points victory, however both of Pettis’ defeats have come on the judges scorecards.

*Odds subject to change

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