Bayern Munich vs. Dortmund preview

Bayern Munich vs. Dortmund preview

By Michael Gales May 23, 2013

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Bayern Munich play rivals Borussia Dortmund in the first all-German Champions League final at Wembley on May 25th. This article analyses the tie to see where the game could be won and lost.

Record breaking Munich powers into England

When Dortmund and Munich go head-to-head on the Wembley turf it will mark the high point in a rivalry, which has become as fierce as any across Europe.

Offended by two years of Dortmund domestic superiority, Bayern have responded this season in record-breaking style in the Bundesliga.

Bayern’s dominance both domestically and across Europe has seen them win 84% of games this season, with the Bavarians losing just three of their 51 games.

Munich have won an incredible 24 of their last 26 games in all competitions, and have lost just once since October – a 38 game run.

They progressed to the final in emphatic style by demolishing Barcelona 7-0 on aggregate – the biggest Champions league semi-final aggregate win – and are the 1.775* favourites with Pinnacle Sports to win their fifth Champions league crown.

Yet for all the statistical superlatives, Bayern’s campaign could end on a bitter note should Dortmund pip them to Europe’s biggest club prize – Munich have lost twice in the Champions League final over the past three seasons and have a 44% win ratio once reaching the final of Europe’s elite club competition.

Dortmund focused on Champions League glory

After embarrassing their German rivals domestically over the past two years, Jrgen Klopp’s side has sacrificed league success for the bigger goal of winning the Champions League for the second time in Dortmund’s history.

Dortmund finished a huge 25-points adrift of their rivals in the Bundesliga. This season the Borussians have won 56% and lost 18% of their games.

However, since suffering their first Champions League defeat of the season in the 2nd leg semi-final against Real Madrid, they have failed to win.

Dortmund are available at 4.800* on the 12 with Pinnacle sports to claim their second Champions league title.

Head-to-head record suggests tight affair

The two German giants have met just twice before in the Champions League. It was Dortmund who progressed after beating Munich 1-0 on aggregate in the 1997-98 quarter-finals.

History favours Munich however, who have won 41% of games between the two compared to a win percentage of just 27 for Dortmund.

The past nine games highlights Dortmund’s recent dominance (55% win ratio), while this season has seen two 1-1 Bundesliga draws and a narrow 1-0 victory for Bayern in the German Cup quarter-finals, suggesting the Wembley showpiece could be close.

Goals – The Germans Champions League story so far

Historically Bayern are amongst the best teams to have played in the Champions League. The Bavarians have a 51% win ratio in 174 games, compared to Dortmund who have won 33% of their games.

This season Munich have an impressive 75% win ratio and have lost just twice – BATE Borisov and Arsenal. Dortmund on the other hand were unbeaten until their 2-0 defeat last time out against Real Madrid and have a 58% win ratio.

Goals are expected at the final as Munich are the competitions top goalscorers with 29 goals at an average of 2.41 goals per game, while Dortmund have scored 23 goals at an average of 1.91.

Defensively Munich have conceded just 10 goals compared to Dortmund’s 12 and have kept five clean sheets, including four in succession since the Round of 16.

With both teams proficient in front of goal, the breakdown shows Munich have scored the most headed goals (5) and goals from inside the box (22) in the tournament this year.

In comparison Dortmund have scored two headers and just one less inside the box, while Munich with the likes of Bastian Schweinsteiger, Arjen Robben and Thomas Muller have scored five (6) more goals than their opponents from range.

When betting live on the Champions League final it is valuable to look for patterns in teams scoring. Munich have scored 58% of their goals in the second half, while Dortmund have little differential between halves. A further breakdown shows Bayern score mostly between 16-30 (24% of all goals) minutes, while Dortmund are more proficient in 31-45 (34.7%) minutes. (see first half odds here)

Defensively Munich rarely concede in the first 45 minutes (22%), while Dortmund concede 59% of their goals in the second half.

Munich scored twice from corners against Barcelona and they average an incredible 8.3 corners per game, compared to Dortmund who have 4.6 corner kicks per 90 minutes. (view corner props)

Robert Lewandowski 2.740* has scored 10 goals in the Champions league this season including four against Real Madrid, however with Mario Gotze – Most CL assists this season – ruled out through injury, Dortmund will need to find another source of creativity. In comparison Munich’s top goalscorer is midfielder Thomas Muller and is offered at 3.030* to score.

How both teams measure up on the road

With both teams playing away in the Champions League final it is valuable to look at both clubs performances on the road in the Champions League this season.

Away from the Allianz Arena in the Champions League Munich average an impressive 11.3 shots at goal, with 4.5 on target per game. Whereas opponents Dortmund average 10.5 shots per match away from the Westfalen, but produce an even more impressive 5.6 shots on target.

Munich have scored 11 goals with a percentage shot to goal ratio of 16.17%, compared to Dortmund’s 14.28% from nine goals. This may not sound like a high statistic, but considering Barcelona are the only other team in Europe’s top five leagues to score at a better rate, it shows how efficient they are.

Defensively both Dortmund and Bayern have formidable records away from home in the Champions League. The Bavarians concede just 7.6 shots, with their opponents scoring just 10.86% of the time, which is why Munich have conceded just five goals away this year, three of which came in one game.

In comparison Dortmund’s opponents have 10.6 shots per game at home, and score on 12.50% of the time (8 goals). This stat shows that there is a reasonable chance that Dortmund will concede when playing away – they have kept only one clean sheet away from home in the Champions League this season.

Bayern have possession on average for 53.50% of their away Champions League games, while Dortmund control possession for just 40.58%. Interestingly Dortmund have only had more than 50% possession once in six away Champions League games this term, which showcases their preference to play on the counter attack.

Card-happy Referee could have influence

Italian referee Nicola Rizzoli has been selected to officiate the Champions League final. This will be the first time the 41-year-old has been in charge of the Champions League final.

Style wise, Rizzoli can be card-happy. This season he dished out an average of 5.16 cautions, while he sent-off a player every 0.4 (including six straight red cards) matches – amongst the highest in Serie A. He awarded seven penalties this season, which works out at one every 0.28 games. (Click here to see the Champions League booking props)

In the five Champions League games he has officiated in this season Rizzoli has awarded 24 (4.8 per game) bookings, one yellow/red card and no penalties.

Munich will not be overjoyed with the appointment of Rizzoli as they have lost both games he has officiated, while the Italian has never refereed a Dortmund game.

Click here to read Champions league final trends

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*Odds subject to change