FA Cup final trends

FA Cup final trends

By Michael Gales May 9, 2013

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Ahead of the 132nd FA Cup final that sees Manchester City as the big favourites to beat Wigan at Wembley on Saturday, May 11th, Pinnacle Sports look at a number of FA Cup final and club trends.

1 – City solid at the back

Manchester City have conceded just one goal this season in the FA Cup, with wins against Watford, Stoke, Leeds, Barnsley and Chelsea. In the Premier League, City have the best defensive record (31 goals conceded), while Wigan have the worst (67 goals conceded).

1 Again – extra time is a burden

Just one of the six FA Cup finals held at the new Wembley since 2007 have needed the additional 30 minutes for extra time – Chelsea beat Manchester United 1-0 thanks to a 116th minute strike from Didier Drogba.

In the past 20 FA Cup finals, four have been level after 90 minutes. The draw in normal time is available at 5.480* with Pinnacle Sports.

1.5 – Goals a premium at new Wembley

Since returning to Wembley in 2007 there has been just nine goals in normal time at an average of just 1.5 goals per game. All recent statistical indicators point to nervy affairs in the final of the world’s oldest club competition.

Under 3 goals is available to back with Pinnacle Sports at 1.185*, however if you think the final will see over 3 goals for the first time at the new Wembley odds of 2.020* are available.

2 – No need for penalty shootouts

Somewhat surprisingly, there have only been two FA Cup finals decided by a penalty shootout and none at the new Wembley. The two shootouts came in the last two years the FA Cup final was held at the Millennium stadium (2005, 2006).

3 – Italian Job

Manchester City manager Roberto Mancini is bidding to become the first Italian manager to win the FA Cup twice and keep Italy’s successful run going in finals – the last three have all been won by clubs with Italian managers.

4.3 – Players well behaved on Wembley turf (Normal time only)

The last ten FA Cup finals have produced 32 yellow cards and no red cards, with an average of 3.2 booking points with Pinnacle Sports per final (Click here to read booking rules).

Under 4.5 bookings can be backed at 2.200*, while over 4.5 cards is available at 1.714*. It is worth noting that in the past 10 years, 80% of finals have had less than 4.5 bookings in normal time.

4 years and five months – long time since Wigan beat City

Recent history suggests Wigan have a tough task as they haven’t beaten their opponents since a 2-1 win in September 2008. The head-to-head record also looks bleak for the Latics, with them winning just 24% of the contests.

City have won the last seven matches between the sides without conceding a goal, outscoring Roberto Martinez’s men 13-0 since March 2010.

5 – Can Wigan avoid relegation fate?

Wigan are three-points adrift of Premier league safety with two games remaining. The Latics hope to avoid the fate suffered by Manchester City in 1926 when they appeared in the final and were relegated in the same season.

Five clubs Manchester City (1926), Leicester City (1969), Brighton (1983), Middlesbrough (1997) and Portsmouth (2010) all appeared in the final, lost and were then relegated at the end of the season.

8 – Will Toure score?

Two years ago Yaya Toure scored in the 1-0 win over Stoke City to claim City’s first FA Cup win since 1969. If Toure scores against Wigan on Saturday he will become only the eighth player since World War Two to score in at least two FA Cup finals.

33% – Both teams score in final at new Wembley

The market for both teams to score in the FA Cup final is increasingly popular. Interestingly, in the last six finals both teams have scored 33% of the time. With this statistic in your mind, both teams to score can be backed at 1.893*, while odds of 2.000* say they won’t.

55% – City record in FA Cup finals

Manchester City will be playing their 10th FA Cup final, while Wigan will make their first appearance. City have won 55% of the finals and will hope to improve their record on Saturday to 60%.

66% – Favourites prosper

Since the return to Wembley in 2007, 66% of the favourites with Pinnacle Sports have lifted the cup. Manchester City are this year’s 1.358* favourites with Pinnacle Sports, while Wigan are available at 9.940*.

83% – Handicap covered by winners

83% of the FA Cup winners (as above) at the new Wembley covered the handicap, with only Chelsea’s 2010 1-0 win over Portsmouth not doing so. City have a -1.5 goal handicap at 1.909*, while Wigan are set at +1.5 goals at 2.010*.

Click here to see the latest FA Cup Final odds and props

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please contact the author.

*Odds subject to change