Werdum favourite to win rematch

Werdum favourite to win rematch

By Michael Gales May 30, 2013

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UFC on Fuel 10s heavyweight Main Event sees Fabricio Werdum go toe-to-toe with Brazilian compatriot Antonio Nogueira in Brazil. Can Werdum win and earn the right to a possible title shot? We look at the fight statistics that may help you arrive at an answer.

Werdum targets win and then heavyweight title shot

The two Brazilian pugilists will finally fight after spending months as opposing coaches on the Brazilian version of The Ultimate Fighter. The pair will fight at the Ginsio Paulo Sarasate in Fortaleza, Brazil on June 8th at UFC on Fuel 10.

The five-round heavyweight main event will be a rematch from the 2006 Pride bout which Nogueira won handily by unanimous decision.

Fabricio ‘Vai Cavalo’ Werdum (16-5-1) is more experienced now, however, and is the big 1.353* favourite with Pinnacle Sports to avenge his defeat against Antonio Nogueira 3.500*.

Heading into the fight, the 35-year-old is on the verge of the heavyweight elite after wining four of his last five fights. Ranked number three in the heavyweight division, a win will almost guarantee him a title shot within two fights.

Nogueira (34-7-1) will be aiming to win his first back-to-back fights since 2008. In doing so, the MMA legend would remain amongst the divisional elite, while a loss would leave the 36-year-old with a 4-4 record since losing out to Frank Mir at UFC 92 and could signal the end of a great career.

‘Minotauro’ is one of the toughest, most resilient fighters in MMA history, and has tapped out only once – Frank Mir 2011 – in a remarkable 43-fight career.

Both fighters are physically very similar. Both will enter the ring weighing around 240lbs, with a reach of 77 and utilise an orthodox stance – the only difference is Werdum’s 1 height advantage at 6ft 4.

Neither fighter has gone beyond round 3

The fight is scheduled for five rounds, which is interesting, as neither of the two men has ever seen a fourth round. Should the fight reach the Championship rounds, both men will be untested.

Their lack of experience in long duration fights is highlighted further by their average fight times; ‘Vai Cavalo’ averages 09:29 while ‘Minotauro’ fights last on average 11:02.

The total rounds market with Pinnacle Sports sees over 2.5 rounds offered at 2.100* while under 2.5 rounds is available at 1.775*.

Interestingly, by looking at both fighters MMA history, it is evident that a combined 67% of fights have finished under 2.5 rounds, compared to just 33% of fights going over the 2.5 benchmark.

Individually, 41% of Werdum’s fights have surpassed 2.5 rounds, which is significantly more than Nogueira who has gone passed 2.5 rounds in just 27% of his fights.

Werdum holds striking advantage

Werdum holds the advantage in the striking department. Both fighters have improved their overall striking package in recent fights but the younger of the two fighters has a more varied and fluid attack.

Werdum lands an average of 2.77 strikes per minute, compared to 1.85 for boxer Nogueira. The former also has the better accuracy with 47% of his strikes connecting, while 42% of Minotauro’s strikes hit the mark.

Nogueira has won three fights via KO compared to the five for Werdum, while the former has been stopped once more (2) than his opponent.

61% of Nogueira’s wins come via Submission

Both fighters are fantastic grapplers and submission artists. An incredible 61% of Nogueira’s wins have come via submission compared to a 50% submission win percentage for Vai Cavalo.

The first fight between the two in 2006 saw Nogueira dominate the grappling for the first two rounds, however, Werdum started to win the grappling exchanges late into the fight.

Technically Nogueira is a great Jiu-Jitsu fighter, while Werdum has a particularly strong ground game.

Werdum’s size and strength advantage however, may give him the slight advantage in securing a submission.

Click here to see the best UFC on Fuel 10 Live odds.

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*Odds subject to change