Can England win third straight series on home soil?

Can England win third straight series on home soil?

By Michael Gales Jul 8, 2013

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2013 Ashes cricket betting sees England host Australia in the best of five Series. The hosts are the heavy favourites ahead of the first Test, can they retain the Ashes or will the Aussies cause an upset?

England heavy favourites

With a home advantage and in reasonable form, the odds (1.375* to win the series & 1.901* to win the first Test) suggest that England are firm favourites to take control ahead of the series.

A strong bowling attack coupled with an accomplished top-order batting line-up who all average above 42 runs per innings, the oddsmakers at Pinnacle Sports are not looking past England before the first test.

England have won three of the last four Ashes Series, and in those three wins, the Australians have managed to post one win in each. A win again will ensure the Ashes win count is all-tied at 31 series apiece.

Home advantage has benefitted England in recent years, and throughout history they have won 16 to Australia’s 14 of the 33 series on English soil.

Australian problems reflected in odds

Australia’s Ashes preparation on and off the field has been nothing short off disastrous. Just 16 days before the first Test (AUS 3.760*), Australia sacked coach Mickey Arthur.

In the build-up to the Ashes the Aussies have been beaten 4-0 by India, lost their Champions Trophy without winning a game, and had five players suspended for off-field indiscretions.

Subsequently South African Arthur was sacked after two years in charge and was replaced by Darren Lehmann. Lehmann comes with experience of playing in England and will know the conditions well, something which Australia have struggled with in recent tours.

Australia had won 10 of 15 Tests but fell to 10 from 19 in India as confidence disappeared and the squad fractured into factions.

In their warm up games Australia beat Somerset by six wickets and drew with Worcestershire.

Australia opened on the 27th June as 5.150 underdogs to win a series in England for the first time since 2001. After drifting further at 5.190, they have returned to 5.140* ahead of the first Test match.

How key is the return of Kevin Pietersen?

Kevin Pietersen has been out of the England team since March but will make his long-awaited return in the first Test at Trent Bridge. The question is, how key is his return?

Now fully integrated back into the England team after the ‘text-gate’ scandal, KP will look to reestablish himself as England’s premier batsman.

The statistics show how key Pietersen’s return is for England. Personal issues aside, England are a stronger team with KP, and therefore more likely to win the Ashes.

England have won 45% of Test matches with KP in the team since 2008. The talisman missed seven Test matches during this period, which saw England’s win percentage drop by 2%.

Pietersen returned to action for Surrey against Yorkshire and looked in fantastic form as he scored a century. And it is run scoring which highlights KP’s influence on England. They average 114 more runs in their first-innings (387), and have a run rate of 3.34 compared to 3.17 when he isn’t playing.

In the Ashes with KP in the team England have won just 38%, however eliminate the disastrous 5-0 whitewash in 2006/2007 and the average rises to 50%, while their average first innings total is 380 at 3.43 runs per over.

Understanding the venue is so important

The venue is a key factor in any cricket match. Players and teams perform better at certain grounds than others, so understanding how the wicket has performed historically is vital for any cricket bettor.

For instance, as mentioned above, England are heavily favoured for both the Test Series and the first Test match starting on July 10th, however instead of picking a venue which will give them the best possible chance of starting with a win, they have opted for the 1st Test to be played at Trent Bridge – which is their least successful venue.

The Nottingham venue has historically favoured bowlers on pitches that deteriorate the longer the game lasts.

Both bowling attacks are closely matched in the pace department and given there is no other venue in England where the hosts have a worse win-loss ratio, the first Test could be hinged on the toss – the team batting first has won six of the last nine Tests played at Trent Bridge.

The second and third Test’s see the teams play at Lords and Old Trafford – England’s most successful home ground – respectively before heading to the Riverside and the Oval to decide the Ashes.

England are big favourites to retain the Ashes, and the odds suggest they will do that, however this is Ashes cricket. So don’t expect the Aussies to roll over without a fight.

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Click here to see the latest England vs. Australia Ashes odds.

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*Odds subject to change