Can Weidman end Silva’s dominance?

Can Weidman end Silva’s dominance?

By Michael Gales Jun 26, 2013

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UFC 162 comes from the MGM Grand in Las Vegas on July 6th as Chris Weidman looks to dethrone UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva. Silva is unbeaten in 15 fights, so can Weidman become the first UFC fighter to beat the pound-for-pound king?

Is Silva’s dominance nearing its end?

The main event at UFC 162 between Anderson ‘the Spider’ Silva and Chris ‘the Supernatural’ Weidman has caused excitement for fans and pundits alike, as many believe the challenger has a realistic chance of becoming the first man in UFC to end Silva’s dominance.

Silva, widely considered the greatest talent in UFC, will enter the cage as the 1.379* favourite, while the challenger is set as the 3.340* underdog.

The Spider (33-4) is unbeaten in the UFC, racking up 16 wins since joining the promotion in June 2006. The pound-for-pound number one has defended his title a record 10 times since wresting the crown from Rich Franklin in October 2006.

The Brazilian Silva last fought in October 2012, when he cruised to a first round TKO win over Stephan Bonnar in a light heavyweight bout in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil – his fifth consecutive stoppage victory.

29 year-old Weidman (9-0) has won all five of his UFC fights since making his debut with a unanimous win over Alessio Sakara in 2011. When the challenger enters the octagon in July he would have been off for nearly a year.

The ‘Supernatural’s’ last bout was a second-round knockout win over injured Mark Munoz on July 11, 2012. Shoulder surgery has kept the upcoming star out of the cage but is back to full fitness and eager to maintain his undefeated career.

Experience a weakness for Weidman

Weidman has not fought since July 2012, and in his short nine-fight career he has not fought anywhere near Silva’s level. Weidman has also never fought in a pay-per-view main event, so no one knows how he will react under lights.

On the other side of the octagon, Silva’s taking the bout with an inexperienced challenger represents the most risky endeavor he has taken since making his UFC debut in 2006 – a loss would fuel critics views that believe the 38-year-old no longer belongs at the top of the pound-for-pound rankings.

Silva will look to ‘strike’ gold at UFC 162

Anderson Silva is one of, if not the most feared striker in MMA. The Brazilian has the highest striking accuracy (67%) in UFC, the most career knockdowns (19) and has finished 20 of his victims from strikes.

The Southpaw striker knows how to make his opponent miss and then capitalise on his rival’s mistakes. The ‘Spider’ can strike with the same proficiency whether it’s a kick, elbow or punch.

Weidman is a solid striker despite not being classed at the same level as Silva – few are. The challenger is a well-rounded orthodox striker despite not being as technically savvy as others. His last victory over Munoz showed that he could beat another wrestler by using his hands to dictate the fight – the Supernatural has won 3 fights by TKO.

Physically both pugilists will enter the octagon around 185lbs and stand at 6ft 2, while the challenger will have a very slight reach advantage.

Interestingly neither fighter has ever been KO’d in a combined 46 MMA fights. The champion’s striking defence sees him rebuff 63% of his opponent’s attacks, while Weidman’s defence is slightly better at 68%.

Weidman the ‘master’ wrestler

If Weidman can beat Silva, it will be in the wrestling department. The Supernatural has an excellent wrestling forte (72% takedown accuracy), and if Silva has an area of weakness, it has to be on the ground. Although his record against wrestlers is remarkable, he is only ever troubled when put on his back.

The challenger may have a strong wrestling pedigree (4.47 average takedowns per 15 minutes), but he will need to get the fight to the ground in the first.

In the first fight against Chael Sonnen, Silva was dominated, spending the majority of the fight on his back before he completed one of the greatest comebacks in MMA history to make Sonnen tap.

Silva & Weidman Fight Statistics

Striking

Silva

Weidman

Strikes landed per/min

3.17

3.23

Striking accuracy

67%

43%

Strikes absorbed per/min

1.41

1.95

Defense

63%

68%

Grappling

Silva

Weidman

Takedown average/15min

0.72

4.47

Takedown accuracy

78%

72%

Takedown defense

70%

100%

Submission average/15min

1.13

1.38

However, Silva practiced his takedown defence (70% defence against takedowns) for the rematch, which he subsequently dominated. Knowing Weidman possesses a similar threat; he will surely look to tighten up that facet of his game once more.

In terms of submissions Silva averages 1.13 per fight and has made six fighters tap out including Dan Henderson, Travis Lutter and Sonnen, while Weidman averages 1.38 submission attempts per fight and has won three bouts by submission.

Final thoughts

Silva is evasive, while his unorthodox striking, pinpoint accuracy and durability will cause problems for Weidman.

Weidman, despite having the tools – wrestling – to win the fight, others have also had this advantage but have all left the Octagon defeated. Can Weidman win in his first pay-per-view main event fight and dethrone the king of MMA?

See the best UFC 162 Silva vs. Weidman odds

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*Odds subject to change