Great reasons to bet on the 2013/14 Serie A season

Great reasons to bet on the 2013/14 Serie A season

By Charlie Rowing Aug 20, 2013

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With the new Serie A season kicking off on August 24th, Pinnacle Sports investigates why the Italian top flight holds betting promise this coming season. From the decline of the Milan giants to how teams perform against the spread, read on for in-depth Serie A betting information.

Juventus aim to make it three in a row

After five seasons of turmoil – they were relegated to Serie B in 2006 after being found guilty in a match-fixing scandal – Juventus are once more considered the dominant force in Italian football.

Manager Antonio Conte has worked wonders to return the Old Lady to her former glory. After an incredible first season in charge (2011/12) that saw Juventus go unbeaten, Conte steered the team to a second successive title.

The double winners will look to keep their momentum going as they chase a third successive Serie A title – a feat which they haven’t achieved since the 1930’s.

The impressive arrivals of Carlos Tevez, Fernando Llorente and Angelo Ogbonna have strengthened the group, which could prove key in race for the title. But will this excessive strength unbalance the handicap market, causing bettors to overrate Juventus’ chances? Or will Juventus regress to the mean, unable to retain their excellent form in a strengthened league?

They are 1.746* to retain their title this season.

Whatever happens in Serie A this season, understanding the strength of Juventus will be key to calculate the outcome of the league and spread bets.

The fall of the Milan greats

Both AC Milan and Inter Milan have 36 Serie A titles between them but it looks like their recent woes will continue this season.

Despite a strong second-half last season which saw them finish 3rd – mainly down to the January signing of Mario Balotelli – Milan haven’t made any notable signings (at time of writing).

AC Milan are 5.810* to win Serie A.

Inter have made a host of signings, along with a change of manager after their abysmal 9th place finish last season. After winning five Serie A titles in succession from 2005-2010, the Nerazzurri have fallen short after the departure of Jose Mourinho.

In fact, their form has struggled so much that if you had bet 10 on them losing every game last season you would have made 150 profit. This suggests that the betting public overrated them last season – will it happen again?

Inter Milan are 2.050* to gain over 63.5 points this season.

Napoli & Fiorentina strong contenders

Last season Juventus won the Scudetto fairly comfortably (by nine points). This year looks set to be closer with the biggest challengers to Juve’s crown coming from Napoli 6.880* and Fiorentina11.630*.

Despite the loss of star player Edinson Cavani to PSG and the departure of manager Walter Mazzarri to Inter Milan during the summer, Napoli have heavily reinforced their team in the close season. Respected manager Rafa Benitez was brought in, fresh from Europa Cup success, alongside Gonzalo Higuain, Pepe Reina and Raul Albiol amongst others.

This year looks set to be closer with the biggest challengers to Juve’s crown coming from Napoli and Fiorentina.

For the first time since the early 1980s, this season offers Fiorentina a realistic chance of winning the Scudetto. The marque signing of Mario Gomez from Bayern Munich must be seen as a real statement of intent, while Giuseppe Rossi will be looking to put his injury problems behind him and re-build his reputation as one of Europe’s top strikers.

It was widely regarded that the Viola played some of the most attractive football in Italy last season. Whether or not manager Vincenzo Montella can capitalise on last seasons form will be pivotal in deciding whether or not Fiorentina have a realistic chance of claiming their first Serie A title since 1968-69?

The expectation on these two sides could cause an interesting dynamic in handicap betting. Will the crowd over- or under-estimate the strength of these reinvigorated sides?

Last season’s interesting statistics

Last season’s Home Field Advantage was measured at a 1.65 goal advantage for home sides over their visiting opposition, which is only second to La Liga in the major European leagues.

A huge 51% of games involving Roma had over 3.5 goals, only Barcelona and Hannover had more in Europe. So it could be worth thinking about Roma when it comes to the over/under goals market in 2013/14.

Juventus conceded just 24 goals last season, only PSG (23) and Bayern Munich (18) conceded fewer in all of Europe. The 10 goals they conceded at home made them Europe’s meanest defence, equalled only by PSG.

Catania covered the spread an amazing 60% of the time last season, which shows they were undervalued by the betting public. This is interesting because they finished the season in 8th place, just 10 points shy from qualifying for Europe. Gli Elefanti are 2.010* to reach over 47.5 points.

Genoa finished in 17th place for the second season running, will they be good enough to narrowly avoid the drop again? Genoa are currently set at 43.5 points, at1.926* Over/Under.

Five years in succession at least one side promoted from Serie B has been relegated straight back down at the end of the season. How will Sassuolo, Hellas Verona and Livorno fair?

Click here to see the best Serie A odds.

*Odds subject to change

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