NBA trader analysis odds movement for 2013 Finals

NBA trader analysis odds movement for 2013 Finals

By Pinnacle Sports Jun 27, 2013

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After a pulsating 2013 NBA Finals series between the Heat and Spurs, in an exclusive inside look, Pinnacle Sports’ lead NBA trader takes an in-depth look back at the odds movement over the seven games and explains what may have influenced them, essential insight for any NBA bettor.

Desperation a key factor in odds movement

One of the key factors affecting the spread in the NBA Finals was the level of desperation of a team, rather than a perceived momentum for the team that had previously won.

A key factor affecting the spread was desperation

This was strongly demonstrated before Game 4, when Miami were in a desperate situation (2-1 down, playing in San Antonio and set to stay there for Game 5). The Heat needed to win, and coupled with their small perceived skill advantage over the Spurs, were set as 1-point favourites. Had Miami been in less of a desperate position, a different handicap could have been set.

The exception to this “desperation” advantage was in Game 5, where despite having evened the series, Miami were roughly the same 1-point favourite as they were going into the need-to-win Game 4.

In fact, if desperation were to favour anyone, it would be the Spurs, as Game 5 was their last shot at home. Instead, having leveled the series, public confidence in Miami's Big Three – Lebron James, Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade – may have returned to shape that market.

How quantifiable is desperation?

It’s important to remember that the effect of desperation is one of many influences on a match, and doesn’t override the better-known home field advantage. We often consider desperation in a match to equate to just one to two points better, but of course, this depends on the teams involved.

If a comparable team (in this case Miami to Spurs) or a clearly better team are the desperate party, it’s safe to include the handicap. If it’s an obviously worse team, however, then desperation doesn’t tend to make a noticeable points difference.

Injury worries

Another factor that often affects spread setting for games is injuries to key players. For Game 7, it was the condition of the Heat’s Dwayne Wade causing concern. He took a knock to his left knee in Game 6, on top of his niggling right knee issues in recent months.

However, there was never an expectation that he would miss the deciding game, and all the reports were positive on Thursday. As it played out, Wade’s stellar performance crushed any fears of defeat for the Miami fans as they secured a second successive title.

NBA Final Game 7 trends

The history of all NBA playoff Game 7s prior to tip-off saw the home team win over 79% of games, including 11-3 in Finals. On the other hand, the Spurs had been 14-3 in potential series-clinching road games, which could easily have been 15-2, but for the remarkable conclusion to Game 6 in Florida. With time running out, the Heat turned the game and the series on its head as they came from behind to win and set-up a Game 7 decider.

The spread for Game 7 began with the Heat at -6, touching -6.5 on Tuesday night (hours after the conclusion of Game 6), and then traded at 6 until early Thursday morning where it moved to a ‘strong’ 5.5 where it essentially stayed until tip-off.

It seemed there was clear professional interest in the Spurs at +6 -105. When the spread briefly touched the -5.5 -105 late on, some real Heat interest emerged.

Totals market movement

Game 7 totals in later rounds – particularly the Finals – trended slightly towards Under, but the sample is too small for basing confident predictions.

This supports the hypothesis that Finals start loose – producing slightly higher totals – before defences tighten up, possibly from pressure, tension or fatigue, producing the opposite effect.

Even great teams, that have experienced these extraordinary circumstances before can be nervous and therefore a bit tight for an all or nothing Game 7, which can consequently affect the game pace and shooting percentages. The last two Finals’ Game 7s were very low scoring affairs: 2010 Lakers-Celtics 83-79 and 2005 Spurs-Pistons 81-74

The totals opened at 191, but drew down to 189.5 very quickly, where it remained until the early morning on the day of the game. At that point it fell to 188, until one more slight push to 187 over the final two hours before tipoff.

The odds movement provided an insight into the complexity of betting

During this process, Haralabos Voulgaris, a well know NBA handicapper, tweeted that he was on the Under. His betting, the betting of those following his lead, likely combined to put downward pressure on the total and a reduction in the totals.

Final Thoughts

The odds movement over the series provides an insight into the complexity of sports betting. The level of analysis, coincided with the subjectivity of opinion, combines to move the markets.

Obviously it is important to distinguish the difference between public and informed opinion. The latter is shaped by experience, while the former is dramatically affected by herd mentality.

If you are betting on events such as the NBA Finals, it is imperative to conduct thorough research, rely on trusted information and the odds at Pinnacle Sports.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please contact the author.

*Odds subject to change