четверг, 29 августа 2013 г.

Super Cup Numbers: Bayern Munich vs. Chelsea

Super Cup Numbers: Bayern Munich vs. Chelsea

By Michael Gales Aug 29, 2013

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A little over a year after Chelsea beat FC Bayern in the UEFA Champions League final, the teams meet again in the UEFA Super Cup with new men at the helm. Before betting on the Super Cup, read what the numbers suggest.

Mourinho vs. Guardiola

Over the last five years there have been a number of volatile and fascinating duels between managers Pep Guardiola and Jose Mourinho. The next instalment of Mourinho vs. Guardiola comes on 30th August in the UEFA Super Cup.

Both Mourinho and Guardiola’s records are unquestionable with their overall win percentages impressive at 66.93% and 71.53% respectively. Success breeds success, and between them they have won 34 major titles as managers – Mourinho 20, Guardiola 14.

The managers have gone head-to-head 15 times, with Guardiola winning seven to Jose’s three, with three draws.

A UEFA Super Cup winner with Barcelona in 2009 and 2011, Guardiola could became the first coach to win the competition three times, while to date the UEFA Super Cup remains the only trophy that Mourinho has competed for and not won – his Porto team lost 1-0 against AC Milan in 2003.

0% – Bayern’s dreadful UEFA Super cup record

Bayern 1.800* will make their fourth UEFA Super Cup appearance. They have lost all three previous finals – 1975 FC Dynamo Kyiv (0-3), 1976 Anderlecht (3-5) and 2001 Liverpool (2-3). No other team has finished runners-up three times without winning the trophy. In total, German teams have won none of the seven UEFA Super Cup games they have been involved in.

2.8 – Average number of goals in last ten

With the total goals over/under set at 2.5 goals it is worth noting that 60% of the last ten finals have gone over, while there is an average of 2.8 goals per game in the UEFA Super Cup final. Over 2.5 goals is set at 1.840*, while the Under is set at 2.060*.

3 – Number of favourites that have covered the spread

Three of the pre-match favourites have covered the spread in the last six UEFA Super Cups. This includes Atltico Madrid in 2012 and Barcelona in 2011.

7 – Chelsea have good record against German teams

The Champions League final contest with Bayern in Munich is the most recent of Chelsea’s 14 games against Bundesliga clubs, with the Blues having won 50% (W7 D3 L4).

36% – Bayern’s record against English clubs

Bayern have a 36% (W14 D13 L11) win record against English clubs in all competitions. Most recently, they met Arsenal in the 2012/13 Champions League round of 16, winning 3-1 away and progressing on away goals despite a 2-0 home defeat.

50% – Chelsea’s UEFA Super Cup history

Chelsea 4.880* beat Real Madrid on their UEFA Super Cup debut in Monaco in 1998, Gus Poyet scoring the only goal. They fared less well however on their second appearance against Madrid’s city rivals Atltico, going down 4-1 last season.

In total, German teams have won none of the seven UEFA Super Cup games they have been involved in.

50/50 – Alternate winners for last decade

Since 2003 there has been an alternate winner every year coming from the Champions League and Europa League winners. Last year Atltico Madrid won as the Europa winner, so the trend suggests Munich as the Champions league winners will lift the title.

83% – British dominate German’s in European finals

In 12 UEFA competition British-German finals, the Anglo sides have a remarkable 83% win record, with the German teams winning just two encounters.

Chelsea stunned Bayern with a dramatic penalty shoot-out victory in the German club’s own stadium last May to take the European Cup to Stamford Bridge for the first time.

88% – Bayern’s incredible form

Bayern have won 32 of their last 36 matches in all competitions. Last season they broke or equaled 30 Bundesliga records, however they were beaten in the German Super Cup 4-1 against Borussia, while they dropped points against Freiburg in mid-week.

Click here for the best Chelsea vs. Bayern Munich Super Cup odds

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

среда, 28 августа 2013 г.

Henderson favourite to avenge defeat

Henderson favourite to avenge defeat

By Michael Gales Aug 28, 2013

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UFC 164’s main event sees UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson defend his title against Anthony Pettis at the BMO Centre in Milwaukee on August 31st. With all of Henderson’s UFC bouts having gone to the scorecards, will either man be able to produce a finish before the final bell?

UFC 164 odds favour Champ

In what will surely be one of the biggest rematches in the MMA lightweight division’s history, UFC champion Benson ‘Smooth’ Henderson gets the chance to avenge his unanimous decision defeat against former WEC champAnthony ‘Showtime’ Pettisat UFC 164.

Since the first fight, the careers of both men couldn’t be more contrasting. Henderson has gone on to win the UFC lightweight title, while Pettis has been on an up-and-down ride en-route to his first UFC title shot.

Champion Henderson is on a seven fight winning streak – three fights as champion – since joining the UFC and is the 1.877* favourite to avenge his defeat. ‘Smooth’ enters the octagon with a record of 19-2-0, with his only other defeat coming way back in 2007 against Rocky Johnson.

The 29-year-old is three-years older than the challenger, and while both pugilists will enter the ring around 155lbs, Pettis holds a slight height and reach advantage.

Challenger Pettis can be backed at 2.030* to turn his career around and win his fourth fight in succession. Pettis got his chance after TJ Grant was forced out with a foot injury.

‘Showtime’ has a record not too dissimilar from Henderson’s – 16-2-0. After beating Henderson, he lost in his next fight to Clay Guilda via unanimous decision. Since then Pettis has fought just three times – due to a number of injuries – compared to Henderson who has taken to the mat in seven fights.

7 KO wins: Challenger holds the striking advantage

Henderson & Pettis Fight Statistics

Striking

Henderson

Pettis

Strikes landed per/min

2.9

2.02

Striking accuracy

44%

43%

Strikes absorbed per/min

1.56

1.41

Defense

66%

65%

Grappling

Henderson

Pettis

Takedown average/15min

2.83

1.51

Takedown accuracy

48%

77%

Takedown defence

65%

65%

Submission average/15min

0.9

1.66

There are few fighters in MMA who are as skillful and creative when striking than the orthodox Pettis. With a huge arsenal of strikes, it comes as no surprise that the challenger has 7 KO career wins (43%).

Pettis lands on average 2.02 strikes per minute with an accuracy of 43%, compared to Henderson who throws more strikes per minute (2.9) and is more accurate (44%).

Southpaw Henderson’s stats prove he is a competent striker, but with only 10% of his wins coming via KO, it is clear he has been effective in using his striking in conjunction with his wrestling to churn out points and decision victories.

Defensively both fighters repel just less than 50% of their opponents’ strikes, while Henderson gets tagged 1.56 times per minute compared to Pettis’ 1.41.

Henderson holds significant wrestling advantage

If Henderson doesn’t match-up in the striking department he makes up for it with an advantage in wrestling.

Since joining the UFC the champion has overcome grappling kingpins Jim Miller and Clay Guida, while he beat wrestling standout Frankie Edgar by keeping his cool to impress the judges.

Pettis, in comparison, has improved his wrestling in recent years and works well off his back, which in turn makes him a dangerous opponent.

In the previous meeting, however, the challenger struggled on the mat against Henderson and the Champion – 2.83 takedowns per 15 minutes – is the more technical wrestler.

Both fighters are evenly matched when it comes to jiu-jitsu though. Henderson has eight career submission wins (and one loss) and has a markedly improved defense. In comparison Pettis has made his opponent tap out six times, and attempts 1.66 submissions every 15 minutes.

Conditioning

Having gone the distance in each of his last eight bouts, Henderson is a well-tuned fighter. The lightweight champion has won each of these fights and gone the full five rounds in his last four.

Pettis is also a fantastic athlete and has three decision victories to his name and showed his prowess last time out against Henderson, with a points victory, however both of Pettis’ defeats have come on the judges scorecards.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

пятница, 23 августа 2013 г.

Great reasons to bet on the 2013/14 Serie A season

Great reasons to bet on the 2013/14 Serie A season

By Charlie Rowing Aug 20, 2013

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With the new Serie A season kicking off on August 24th, Pinnacle Sports investigates why the Italian top flight holds betting promise this coming season. From the decline of the Milan giants to how teams perform against the spread, read on for in-depth Serie A betting information.

Juventus aim to make it three in a row

After five seasons of turmoil – they were relegated to Serie B in 2006 after being found guilty in a match-fixing scandal – Juventus are once more considered the dominant force in Italian football.

Manager Antonio Conte has worked wonders to return the Old Lady to her former glory. After an incredible first season in charge (2011/12) that saw Juventus go unbeaten, Conte steered the team to a second successive title.

The double winners will look to keep their momentum going as they chase a third successive Serie A title – a feat which they haven’t achieved since the 1930’s.

The impressive arrivals of Carlos Tevez, Fernando Llorente and Angelo Ogbonna have strengthened the group, which could prove key in race for the title. But will this excessive strength unbalance the handicap market, causing bettors to overrate Juventus’ chances? Or will Juventus regress to the mean, unable to retain their excellent form in a strengthened league?

They are 1.746* to retain their title this season.

Whatever happens in Serie A this season, understanding the strength of Juventus will be key to calculate the outcome of the league and spread bets.

The fall of the Milan greats

Both AC Milan and Inter Milan have 36 Serie A titles between them but it looks like their recent woes will continue this season.

Despite a strong second-half last season which saw them finish 3rd – mainly down to the January signing of Mario Balotelli – Milan haven’t made any notable signings (at time of writing).

AC Milan are 5.810* to win Serie A.

Inter have made a host of signings, along with a change of manager after their abysmal 9th place finish last season. After winning five Serie A titles in succession from 2005-2010, the Nerazzurri have fallen short after the departure of Jose Mourinho.

In fact, their form has struggled so much that if you had bet 10 on them losing every game last season you would have made 150 profit. This suggests that the betting public overrated them last season – will it happen again?

Inter Milan are 2.050* to gain over 63.5 points this season.

Napoli & Fiorentina strong contenders

Last season Juventus won the Scudetto fairly comfortably (by nine points). This year looks set to be closer with the biggest challengers to Juve’s crown coming from Napoli 6.880* and Fiorentina11.630*.

Despite the loss of star player Edinson Cavani to PSG and the departure of manager Walter Mazzarri to Inter Milan during the summer, Napoli have heavily reinforced their team in the close season. Respected manager Rafa Benitez was brought in, fresh from Europa Cup success, alongside Gonzalo Higuain, Pepe Reina and Raul Albiol amongst others.

This year looks set to be closer with the biggest challengers to Juve’s crown coming from Napoli and Fiorentina.

For the first time since the early 1980s, this season offers Fiorentina a realistic chance of winning the Scudetto. The marque signing of Mario Gomez from Bayern Munich must be seen as a real statement of intent, while Giuseppe Rossi will be looking to put his injury problems behind him and re-build his reputation as one of Europe’s top strikers.

It was widely regarded that the Viola played some of the most attractive football in Italy last season. Whether or not manager Vincenzo Montella can capitalise on last seasons form will be pivotal in deciding whether or not Fiorentina have a realistic chance of claiming their first Serie A title since 1968-69?

The expectation on these two sides could cause an interesting dynamic in handicap betting. Will the crowd over- or under-estimate the strength of these reinvigorated sides?

Last season’s interesting statistics

Last season’s Home Field Advantage was measured at a 1.65 goal advantage for home sides over their visiting opposition, which is only second to La Liga in the major European leagues.

A huge 51% of games involving Roma had over 3.5 goals, only Barcelona and Hannover had more in Europe. So it could be worth thinking about Roma when it comes to the over/under goals market in 2013/14.

Juventus conceded just 24 goals last season, only PSG (23) and Bayern Munich (18) conceded fewer in all of Europe. The 10 goals they conceded at home made them Europe’s meanest defence, equalled only by PSG.

Catania covered the spread an amazing 60% of the time last season, which shows they were undervalued by the betting public. This is interesting because they finished the season in 8th place, just 10 points shy from qualifying for Europe. Gli Elefanti are 2.010* to reach over 47.5 points.

Genoa finished in 17th place for the second season running, will they be good enough to narrowly avoid the drop again? Genoa are currently set at 43.5 points, at1.926* Over/Under.

Five years in succession at least one side promoted from Serie B has been relegated straight back down at the end of the season. How will Sassuolo, Hellas Verona and Livorno fair?

Click here to see the best Serie A odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Unpredictable weather a problem at Spa Circuit

Unpredictable weather a problem at Spa Circuit

By Michael Gales Aug 22, 2013

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Expect a dramatic race at the Spa-Francorchamps Circuit when the teams arrive for the Belgian Grand Prix. What will happen when unpredictable weather combines with the fastest track on the tour?

Spa-Francorchamps Circuit: Fast, dramatic racing expected

Three-weeks ago the Formula One teams visited the slowest permanent track: the Hungaroring. Now refreshed, they head to the quickest: Spa-Francorchamps.

Spa is a firm favourite with drivers and is widely considered the best track on the calendar, which is why winning Spa is considered to be one of the ultimate challenges of motor racing. At 4.3 miles the track pushes the car and driver to its limits over the 4.3-mile track, as cars can be on full throttle for around 80% of the lap – the longest on the F1 calendar.

Long straights usually require a low downforce set-up, however any attempt to take on the Spa-Francorchamps Circuit without plenty of grip is sure to cause trouble – a balanced set-up is essential.

It’s not just the speed and expansiveness of the track is that will affect the drivers at the Belgium Grand Prix, however. Another is the region’s unpredictable weather, which often means that drivers have to deal with different grip levels around the lap. It is not unusual for it to be pouring with rain in one section of the circuit, but for the track to be completely dry in another.

Weather can wreak havoc

A key characteristic to consider before betting on the Belgian GP is the variable weather conditions.  Historically, there is a high possibility of rainfall at Spa.

Because of the changing weather a drivers Strategy has to be flexible. The conditions can change extremely quickly, which then makes how the teams use their tyres key to success – as we have seen in the past.

With the weather historically erratic it is advisable to monitor the situation for both qualifying and the race.

Tyres & strategy a race changer

The drivers will have the hard and medium tyres available, which will be best suited for the high-energy demands of the circuit.

Managing the tyres is vital around Spa – the long track allows the teams to utilise a number of tyre strategies with plenty of time to be won and lost if the right tactics are chosen.

Last year’s winner Jenson Button used a one-stop strategy, while four-time winner Kimi Raikkonen stopped twice on his way to third place. There was plenty of variation in tyre choice last season – while most drivers started on the medium compound, Hulkenberg started on the hard tyre in 11th and finished fourth after a two-stop strategy.

Solid correlation between qualifying & finishing position

We have already proved there is a solid correlation between qualifying position and final race positions throughout the 2012 season (click to read here).

By using the same model we have examined the last ten Belgian Grand Prix to indicate how much influence Formula One bettors can place on the relevance of qualifying at the Spa-Francorchamps Circuit as a race performance indicator.

Somewhat unsurprisingly, because of the erratic weather and high demands on the car historically associated with the Belgian GP the data shows a 0.44 correlation between qualifying and race position. Despite this, 60% of races correlate.

50% of pole sitters have gone on to win the Belgian GP in the last 10 GPs. This highlights that the variation during the lap means that starting from pole is not as important as it can be on other circuits.

Click here for the latest Belgian Grand Prix odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

четверг, 22 августа 2013 г.

Are Chelsea overrated for Man Utd game?

Are Chelsea overrated for Man Utd game?

By Jack Ratcliffe Aug 22, 2013

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With Manchester United hosting Chelsea on Monday in the biggest game of the season so far we ask are the Blues – now under Mourinho’s stewardship – traditionally overrated against their Mancunian opposition? And how does this affect handicap betting?

Man Utd: Storming start to the season

Manchester United opened the season with a 4-1 drubbing of Swansea City, removing some of the question marks over whether David Moyes would be an adequate successor to Sir Alex Ferguson. The score destroyed United’s pre-match handicap, which was set at -0.5.

It wasn’t Moyes’ name the crowds were chanting however, but Robin van Persie’s. The former Arsenal man was on fantastic form to bag a brace, with a performance good enough to strike fear into even The Special One’s heart.

One of the Dutchman’s strikes was assisted by Wayne Rooney, who looks increasingly dejected in a red shirt – but almost certainly won’t be wearing a blue one by the time the two teams meet on Monday.

Chelsea: Business as usual for Mourinho

It has been business as usual for Jose Mourinho’s return to the Premier League, who covered the handicap in his first game back as Chelsea manager by successfully dispatching Hull City 2-0 at the Bridge. It looked easy for the Blues, but the game showed that the side is still without a prolific striker, and it will take some time for Mourinho to find his preferred attacking midfield formation.

Both goals against Hull came from the midfield, courtesy of Frank Lampard and Oscar (Lampard also missed a penalty). Can Chelsea continue to produce goals from the middle of the pitch?

Chelsea have covered the handicap in just 35.3% of their games against United since 2008

If you exclude cup games and focus on Premier League matches, Chelsea’s record only improves slightly, covering four of nine meetings (with one push).

Things were more difficult against Aston Villa, where Chelsea won 2-1 but failed to cover the spread of 1.5. Again, the Blues goals came from elsewhere on the pitch – defender Branislav Ivanovic and a Luna own-goal.

Despite Torres’ continuing lack of form, however, Chelsea have managed to cover the handicap in seven of their last ten Premier League outings. United? Just five.

Head-to-head handicaps: Bettors overrate Chelsea?

Chelsea have historically failed to live up to expectations against the Red Devils, covering the handicap in just 35.3% of their meetings (all competitions) since the 2008/09 season. Man Utd also hold the advantage when comparing how many goals they cover the handicap by – an average of 1.03. Chelsea typically cover by 0.83.

Of the 17 encounters since 2008, eight of those were at Old Trafford, with Chelsea covering the spread three times (37.5%). This is slightly better than their typical rate, however, with just eight matches played in Manchester, it’s really too small a sample to suggest that Chelsea are less overrated up north (and it is only by 2.2%). Man Utd are available at 2.480* to win on the 1×2.

Against the Spread Record at Old Trafford

Date

Covering Team

Handicap

05/05/2013

Chelsea

0.25

10/03/2013

Chelsea

0.5

18/09/2013

Man Utd

-0.5

08/05/2011

Man Utd

-0.25

12/04/2010

Man Utd

-0.25

03/04/2010

Chelsea

0.25

09/08/2009

Man Utd

0.25

11/01/2009

Man Utd

-0.25

The two teams split covering the handicap in their four meetings last season, with the Blues and the Reds only covering the spread when on the road. The rivals also covered by the same average number of goals:  0.875 goals (counting split handicaps as 0.25).

Is Chelsea’s current 0 goal handicap for the United game another example of the side being overrated? Will the hype surrounding “The Special One” further inflate public opinion? Or will the knowledge that the Blues desperately need a striker put people off? Answering these questions correctly could be key to winning on the handicap line, and will give very good insight into whether Mourinho an lead Chelsea to the title on his first season back at the Bridge. Chelsea are valued at 3.010* on the 1×2 to beat Man Utd.

Click here to see the latest Premier League odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Great reasons to bet on the 2013/14 Serie A season

Great reasons to bet on the 2013/14 Serie A season

By Charlie Rowing Aug 20, 2013

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With the new Serie A season kicking off on August 24th, Pinnacle Sports investigates why the Italian top flight holds betting promise this coming season. From the decline of the Milan giants to how teams perform against the spread, read on for in-depth Serie A betting information.

Juventus aim to make it three in a row

After five seasons of turmoil – they were relegated to Serie B in 2006 after being found guilty in a match-fixing scandal – Juventus are once more considered the dominant force in Italian football.

Manager Antonio Conte has worked wonders to return the Old Lady to her former glory. After an incredible first season in charge (2011/12) that saw Juventus go unbeaten, Conte steered the team to a second successive title.

The double winners will look to keep their momentum going as they chase a third successive Serie A title – a feat which they haven’t achieved since the 1930’s.

The impressive arrivals of Carlos Tevez, Fernando Llorente and Angelo Ogbonna have strengthened the group, which could prove key in race for the title. But will this excessive strength unbalance the handicap market, causing bettors to overrate Juventus’ chances? Or will Juventus regress to the mean, unable to retain their excellent form in a strengthened league?

They are 1.746* to retain their title this season.

Whatever happens in Serie A this season, understanding the strength of Juventus will be key to calculate the outcome of the league and spread bets.

The fall of the Milan greats

Both AC Milan and Inter Milan have 36 Serie A titles between them but it looks like their recent woes will continue this season.

Despite a strong second-half last season which saw them finish 3rd – mainly down to the January signing of Mario Balotelli – Milan haven’t made any notable signings (at time of writing).

AC Milan are 5.810* to win Serie A.

Inter have made a host of signings, along with a change of manager after their abysmal 9th place finish last season. After winning five Serie A titles in succession from 2005-2010, the Nerazzurri have fallen short after the departure of Jose Mourinho.

In fact, their form has struggled so much that if you had bet 10 on them losing every game last season you would have made 150 profit. This suggests that the betting public overrated them last season – will it happen again?

Inter Milan are 2.050* to gain over 63.5 points this season.

Napoli & Fiorentina strong contenders

Last season Juventus won the Scudetto fairly comfortably (by nine points). This year looks set to be closer with the biggest challengers to Juve’s crown coming from Napoli 6.880* and Fiorentina11.630*.

Despite the loss of star player Edinson Cavani to PSG and the departure of manager Walter Mazzarri to Inter Milan during the summer, Napoli have heavily reinforced their team in the close season. Respected manager Rafa Benitez was brought in, fresh from Europa Cup success, alongside Gonzalo Higuain, Pepe Reina and Raul Albiol amongst others.

This year looks set to be closer with the biggest challengers to Juve’s crown coming from Napoli and Fiorentina.

For the first time since the early 1980s, this season offers Fiorentina a realistic chance of winning the Scudetto. The marque signing of Mario Gomez from Bayern Munich must be seen as a real statement of intent, while Giuseppe Rossi will be looking to put his injury problems behind him and re-build his reputation as one of Europe’s top strikers.

It was widely regarded that the Viola played some of the most attractive football in Italy last season. Whether or not manager Vincenzo Montella can capitalise on last seasons form will be pivotal in deciding whether or not Fiorentina have a realistic chance of claiming their first Serie A title since 1968-69?

The expectation on these two sides could cause an interesting dynamic in handicap betting. Will the crowd over- or under-estimate the strength of these reinvigorated sides?

Last season’s interesting statistics

Last season’s Home Field Advantage was measured at a 1.65 goal advantage for home sides over their visiting opposition, which is only second to La Liga in the major European leagues.

A huge 51% of games involving Roma had over 3.5 goals, only Barcelona and Hannover had more in Europe. So it could be worth thinking about Roma when it comes to the over/under goals market in 2013/14.

Juventus conceded just 24 goals last season, only PSG (23) and Bayern Munich (18) conceded fewer in all of Europe. The 10 goals they conceded at home made them Europe’s meanest defence, equalled only by PSG.

Catania covered the spread an amazing 60% of the time last season, which shows they were undervalued by the betting public. This is interesting because they finished the season in 8th place, just 10 points shy from qualifying for Europe. Gli Elefanti are 2.010* to reach over 47.5 points.

Genoa finished in 17th place for the second season running, will they be good enough to narrowly avoid the drop again? Genoa are currently set at 43.5 points, at1.926* Over/Under.

Five years in succession at least one side promoted from Serie B has been relegated straight back down at the end of the season. How will Sassuolo, Hellas Verona and Livorno fair?

Click here to see the best Serie A odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Pinnacle Sports’ Head of Sportsbook answers your questions

Pinnacle Sports’ Head of Sportsbook answers your questions

By Jack Ratcliffe Aug 22, 2013

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On August 6th Pinnacle Sports’ Head of Sportsbook took questions from bettors from around the world. The event, where he discussed markets, odds, trading and probability, proved so popular it broke Twitter’s message limit. Below is the first part in a series of articles expanding upon his answers.

Due to being a Twitter Q&A session, both the questions and answers were cut to fit the 140-character limit. However, in this write-up we’ve increased the Head of Sportsbook’s answers to include more detail that wasn’t possible to include on Twitter, and to make it more accessible to bettors. All expanded answers have had the full input of the Head of Sportsbook.

To read the original, un-expanded transcript, click here.

Are odds sets by statistical analysis of past data, or do you copy lines from other bookmakers, or do you guess based on subjective criteria?

Honestly, it’s a mix of all three of those factors. We take past data in account, but we also use market information. There’s also that human element.

When customers bet, are we trying to beat you? Surely you generate two-way action, to balance the book, and simply take the margin?

The “us vs. them” view is an antiquated view of looking at bookmakers. With our small margins, we have a much higher exposure than other books, and therefore if we set lines badly, we’ll be exposed on one side of a market. Therefore we always manage our lines to make them as efficient as possible, and never our players.

For more details, read our help page on how to calculate a bookmaker’s margin. After calculating a few, you’ll see that ours are the best.

Do you intend to provide any “money back” offers like a lot of UK books do, or any other free cash-based incentives?

Only if you want worse odds. We avoid those gimmicks so we can provide our players with better value. When a company gives you those things, you have to ask – where does that money come from? A comparison of their odds against ours will give you the answer.

Our content team wrote an article on why these kinds of promotions are bad (and are not as generous as you might think). Read about the terms and conditions behind free bets and promo cash here, or see our in-depth look at promotions provided by other bookmakers here.

The same is true of bookmaker’s sponsorship – where does the money come from to put their name on a soccer shirt? Worse odds for bettors. Why not try our Bookmaker Battle game to compare our sponsorship, odds and other categories with other bookmakers? 

How do you determine whether a “bad line” should be voided? I’ve had some voided and some not in the past.

We apply common sense when determining bad lines or not. We try to err on the side of the customer, but we do void if it’s something substantial.

How can I identify value when betting on soccer?

Betting right after the line-ups are released is a good time. You can read more about this in our article, “Money Talks at Pinnacle Sports”, which also explains the Pinnacle Lean.

Can you consider supporting growth markets more, such as cycling, by opening markets earlier and with more options? Maybe an opportunity to bet on the Top 3, rather than just one.

By far, the most-asked question we have received concerns markets we don’t offer or offer low limits on.

Pinnacle Sports is a global company with a priority of providing global markets. We rely on the volume of those markets to enable our offering the best odds in the industry. This is the essence of our service.

If we do not offer a market, or keep limits relatively small, it’s due to a lack of global popularity. If a sport dominates headlines regionally, but doesn’t reach outside that region, we can’t offer it in the same way we would soccer because the global market hasn’t embraced it. That doesn’t mean we think any less of those sports, it’s just that niche markets are not our focus.

There are two things you can do to increase the odds of our carrying a sport or increasing its limits. The first is to let us know what you’re looking for with an email to market-request@pinnaclesports.com (because of requests for beach volleyball, for example, we recently covered a few more competitions), and the

second is to bet more on a given market. Both are indicators of popularity, and with enough volume, attitudes can shift.

How do you feel about arbers (find out what arbitrage betting is here http://www.pinnaclesports.com/online-betting-articles/strategy/basic/arbitrage.aspx)?

In short: we welcome arbitrage players. You can read our promotion’s page that explains our positive policy towards arbers here. We even had an arber who named his dog after us (read about that story here.

Aside from naming his dog after us, he also said some nice things:

“If you are starting in arbitrage betting or you are a professional arber, this is the bookmaker you got to have. Pinnacle Sports is not just a bookmaker, it is the one all the other bookmakers wished to be!”

When I bet, my expected return is usually $1.04 for every $1 wagered. This means that my accounts with other bookmakers are normally closed. Why do you still allow me to bet and provide me with a good service?

We like the challenge, and our model (which welcomes winners) has worked well for us for the past 15 years, so why would we change it?  It essentially works by encouraging betting volume and good players to shape our odds to be as accurate as possible. You can read more about our Winners Welcome policy here.

I would like to know how your office looks. Lots of TV screens? Do you spend weekends there?

We make our work environment confortable for our staff. We have more TV screens than you can count (and almost as many computer monitors)… And yes, we often spend weeks in here. Look out for a peak behind the scenes

Things missed in the Q&A

That concludes Part 1 of our Q&A write-up. There were plenty more questions asked, however, so expect many more articles covering the answers. Because of the sheer volume of questions, however, the @PinnacleSports account maxed-out the number of tweets it could possibly send, so we missed out on a chance to say the following things:

Asian View – Better Live Betting

This article and accompanying video do a better job of explaining than one paragraph can, but we wanted to mention Asian View because of the fantastic response it’s gotten. It’s clear from some of the questions posed in the chat that not everyone is aware of it, so to summarise, it’s revolutionised live play on Pinnacle Sports and has pleased many users.

If you’re not a live bettor, it’s still a solid option. If you are, it’s a necessary one.

Challenger Tour and Live Tennis – More markets

The Head of Sportsbook wanted to use the Q&A as an opportunity to tell customers about a plan to upgrade our tennis offerings.

Tennis bettors will be happy to know that we’re working out details that will allow us to not only offer Challengers series events as a regular offering, but also enhance our live tennis offerings.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

вторник, 20 августа 2013 г.

Great reasons to bet on the 2013/14 Serie A season

Great reasons to bet on the 2013/14 Serie A season

By Charlie Rowing Aug 20, 2013

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With the new Serie A season kicking off on August 24th, Pinnacle Sports investigates why the Italian top flight holds betting promise this coming season. From the decline of the Milan giants to how teams perform against the spread, read on for in-depth Serie A betting information.

Juventus aim to make it three in a row

After five seasons of turmoil – they were relegated to Serie B in 2006 after being found guilty in a match-fixing scandal – Juventus are once more considered the dominant force in Italian football.

Manager Antonio Conte has worked wonders to return the Old Lady to her former glory. After an incredible first season in charge (2011/12) that saw Juventus go unbeaten, Conte steered the team to a second successive title.

The double winners will look to keep their momentum going as they chase a third successive Serie A title – a feat which they haven’t achieved since the 1930’s.

The impressive arrivals of Carlos Tevez, Fernando Llorente and Angelo Ogbonna have strengthened the group, which could prove key in race for the title. But will this excessive strength unbalance the handicap market, causing bettors to overrate Juventus’ chances? Or will Juventus regress to the mean, unable to retain their excellent form in a strengthened league?

Whatever happens in Serie A this season, understanding the strength of Juventus will be key to calculate the outcome of the league and spread bets.

The fall of the Milan greats

Both AC Milan and Inter Milan have 36 Serie A titles between them but it looks like their recent woes will continue this season.

Despite a strong second-half of to last season which saw them finish 3rd – mainly down to the January signing of Mario Balotelli – Milan haven’t made any notable signings (at time of writing).

Inter have made a host of signings, along with a change of manager after their abysmal 9th place finish last season. After winning five Serie A titles in succession from 2005-2010, the Nerazzurri have fallen short after the departure of Jose Mourinho.

In fact, their form has struggled so much that if you had bet 10 on them losing every game last season you would have made 150 profit. This suggests that the betting public overrated them last season – will it happen again?

Napoli & Fiorentina strong contenders

Last season Juventus won the Scudetto fairly comfortably (by nine points). This year looks set to be closer with the biggest challengers to Juve’s crown coming from Napoli and Fiorentina.

Despite the loss of star player Edinson Cavani to PSG and the departure of manager Walter Mazzarri to Inter Milan during the summer, Napoli have heavily reinforced their team in the close season. Respected manager Rafa Benitez was brought in, fresh from Europa Cup success, alongside Gonzalo Higuain, Pepe Reina and Raul Albiol amongst others.

This year looks set to be closer with the biggest challengers to Juve’s crown coming from Napoli and Fiorentina.

For the first time since the early 1980s, this season offers Fiorentina a realistic chance of winning the Scudetto. The marque signing of Mario Gomez from Bayern Munich must be seen as a real statement of intent, while Giuseppe Rossi will be looking to put his injury problems behind him and re-build his reputation as one of Europe’s top strikers.

It was widely regarded that the Viola played some of the most attractive football in Italy last season. Whether or not manager Vincenzo Montella can capitalise on last seasons form will be pivotal in deciding whether or not Fiorentina have a realistic chance of claiming their first Serie A title since 1968-69?

The expectation on these two sides could cause an interesting dynamic in handicap betting. Will the crowd over- or under-estimate the strength of these reinvigorated sides?

Last season’s interesting statistics

Last season’s Home Field Advantage was measured at a 1.65 goal advantage for home sides over their visiting opposition, which is only second to La Liga in the major European leagues.

A huge 51% of games involving Roma had over 3.5 goals, only Barcelona and Hannover had more in Europe. So it could be worth thinking about Roma when it comes to the over/under goals market in 2013/14.

Juventus conceded just 24 goals last season, only PSG (23) and Bayern Munich (18) conceded fewer in all of Europe. The 10 goals they conceded at home made them Europe’s meanest defence, equalled only by PSG.

Catania covered the spread an amazing 60% of the time last season, which shows they were undervalued by the betting public. This is interesting because they finished the season in 8th place, just 10 points shy from qualifying for Europe.

Genoa finished in 17th place for the second season running, will they be good enough to narrowly avoid the drop again?

Five years in succession at least one side promoted from Serie B has been relegated straight back down at the end of the season. How will Sassuolo, Hellas Verona and Livorno fair?

Click here to see the best Serie A odds.

 

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

пятница, 16 августа 2013 г.

What happens when crowds act like herds?

What happens when crowds act like herds?

By Mirio Mella Aug 9, 2013

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If you have a difficult conundrum, it’s reasonable to assume that the more people you survey, the better your solution will be. This is known as the ‘wisdom of the crowd’, and is an effective way of making decisions under uncertainty, like estimating the probability of the outcome of sporting events.

The trouble is that sometimes the crowd acts like a foolish herd – so how do you know when the collective is getting things wrong?

How wisdom of the crowds works

Wisdom of the crowds idea works by averaging estimates from a wide variety of people. The idea is people will equally over- and under-estimate outcomes, leaving the average of their predictions as close to perfect.

Guessing the number of sweets in a large jar is a favourite game at fairs and fetes, and provides a simple illustration of the power of collective wisdom. The most effective way to predict the number of items is to wait until close to the contest deadline, and then simply average all the guesses.

By doing this you are benefiting from the estimates of all the pairs of eyes that have perused that jar. It may a be a little impractical and you will certainly draw a few strange looks as you perch your calculator on the trestle table, but it illustrates how to harness collective wisdom. And could win you a few sweets, too.

Predicting the unknown – the USS Scorpion

The wisdom of the crowds phenomenon was first observed in the early 20th century by the eminent anthropologist, Sir Francis Galton. When at a livestock fair he observed a competition to guess the weight of a butchered ox. No one-person got the correct weight but Galton calculated the median of guesses as being within 0.8% of the answer, stating that “the middlemost estimate expresses the vox populi, every other estimate being condemned as too low or too high by a majority of the voters.”

The vox populi or Wisdom of the Crowds transcends many aspects of decision-making, a wide and fascinating cross-section of which are examined by James Surowiecki in his 2004 book on the subject. Among its fascinating anecdotes is the story of search for the USS Scorpion submarine, which was lost in the North Atlantic in May 1968.

In its search efforts, the navy was only able to locate the wreck to within a 20-mile range. In a test of collective wisdom, naval officer – Dr. John Craven – gained individual insights from a wide and varied group of naval/salvage experts, and used their collective information to pinpoint a location that turned out to be just 220yds from the wreck of the Scorpion.

So how did these individuals’ unrelated opinions average-out to such accuracy?

Predicting the unknown – Sports betting

Just like locating a shipwreck, the results of sporting events cannot be known a priori, yet even under these conditions the crowd does generally provide an accurate assessment of the respective probabilities of the outcomes.

Odds gain accuracy from the wisdom of the crowds by shaping a bookmaker’s opening line and exposing it to public appraisal.

Very sharp bettors will have their own ideas about opening lines that, when they diverge with the bookmakers, will cause the sharp bettors to bet quickly and re-shape the markets. This happens a lot at Pinnacle Sports because we have the sharpest players – high precision individuals – attracted by the lowest margins.

As markets become more liquid – i.e. more people voice opinion by placing their bets – the market generally moves to its most efficient position, just as the more guesses of the number of sweets the more accurate the averaged guess.

However, in the Scorpion story, Craven restricted his ‘crowd’ to the best available experts, and garnered opinions independently, but in betting high precision individuals aren’t the only participants, and decisions aren’t made in a vacuum, so what happens when other less sophisticated bettors weigh in, and when there is a total absence of sharps?

Behavioural biases & information cascades

The bettors that contribute to the movement of a market are generally drawn from a wide spectrum of knowledge and experience, and there is often a specific distribution to the times that different groups place their bets. lazier judgments normally result in more money on the favourite.

One of the recurring themes in our articles is the importance of understanding behavioural biases, and how they can impede rational risk assessment. As already mentioned, sharp players tend to act soonest, while public money – effectively less informed betting – tends to happen closest to event start times, and frequently reflects very general rules of thumb, e.g. “which team am I more familiar with?”, “which team do I recall winning more often?”, “which team is everyone else betting on?”

These lazier judgments normally result in more money on the favourite, skewing the market away from its most efficient position. This is an illustration of how the wisdom of the crowd can be replaced by the foolishness of the herd.

Public money may distort rather than reverse a market, but this kind of collectively poor reasoning  – known as an Information Cascade – can have far greater impact.

Wooden roads & Harry Redknapp

Examples of information cascades outside of betting include a run on the bank, or the rise and swift fall of wooden roads in the 19th century (if you are intrigued by this, read Surowiecki). In the betting world, the managerial markets often follow the information cascade model, with the events following Fabio Capello’s resignation as England manager on February 8th 2012 a salient example. Bettors were willing to wager huge amounts at very skinny odds that Harry Redknapp would replace Capello as the England manager.

In this situation, precision individuals were absent, as the market was driven to an inaccurate judgment, but the arguments for Redknapp were persuasive (there was momentum behind an English manager, Redknapp had enjoyed a successful spell with Spurs and the public was seemingly behind his appointment) and many bettors were willing to rely on the judgment of others (and the media). Not being privy to the information of others bettors assumed that the information amounted to more than just speculation or wishful thinking. It didn’t – Roy Hodgson was announced as the new England manager on 1st May 2012.

In an information cascade decisions are made sequentially, generating momentum, as the effect of incremental decisions being based on the existing opinion that helped build the feedback loop that drove the price down.

The information cascade phenomenon underlines the point from the Scorpion anecdotes – the harder the question, and/or the weaker the knowledge pool the less reliable the collective wisdom. If bettors can avoid being swept away by the cascade, these situations can present significant opportunities.

Pump and dump – market manipulation

Motivation is a key factor in forming and movement of markets. Speculators are motivated by profit but the ways in which this can be achieved are divergent. In the financial world Pump & Dump commonly refers to the practice of hyping shares to inflate their price and enable short-term gains, while the inverse is also common with shortening of shares that are driven down by negative speculation. These tactics drive the market in an unnatural direction, and equally apply within betting. The speed with which information now disseminates (via social media) can make this even more pertinent, and is not a circumstance where the crowd can be trusted.

Niche markets

Notwithstanding some of biases we have outlined, the more liquid a market, the better the collective wisdom. This applies to major sports – big soccer leagues, US major league sports and tennis grand slams – which make it must harder for bettors to find value. Niche sports however, can provide opportunities because of the absence of information, and therefore wisdom.

There will be far fewer high precision individuals betting niche markets, and it will also test the knowledge of the bookmaker, which presents opportunities for those bettors prepared to do the research, and who are able to recognize when the crowd is lacking wisdom and react accordingly.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

среда, 14 августа 2013 г.

How have the odds changed for EPL outrights?

How have the odds changed for EPL outrights?

By EPL Trader Aug 14, 2013

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With the launch of EPL days away, we asked our senior EPL trader for his reflections on the movement we’ve seen thus far in EPL Season Totals. Here are a few thoughts he had to share as your window closes on what even he calls a “great opportunity for profit”:

“We opened our numbers at the start of July, and if you read our earlier article on this, you know we expected quite a bit of movement based on results of the transfer season, and general bettor opinion.

It’s interesting to note that the teams at the top of the table generally have been bet down, while those in the middle and bottom have been bet up. This is a general trend that seems to be true over the course of the last couple of years.”

EPL Outright Changes

Team:

Opener

Current

Change

Chelsea

81.5

81.5

0

Man City

81.5

80.5

-1

Man Utd

80.5

77.5

-3

Arsenal

76.5

70.5

-6

Liverpool

72.5

65.5

-7

Tottenham

69.5

67.5

-2

Everton

52.5

54.5

2

Southampton

47.5

46.5

-1

Newcastle

46.5

46.5

0

Aston Villa

45.5

43.5

-2

WBA

43.5

43.5

0

Swansea

42.5

48.5

6

Fulham

41.5

43.5

2

West Ham

40.5

43.5

3

Sunerland

39.5

42.5

3

Cardiff

38.5

38.5

0

Stoke City

38.5

39.5

1

Norwich City

35.5

41.5

6

Hull

32.5

32.5

0

Crystal Palace

29.5

30.5

1

Unimpressed

Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Spurs have all had points knocked off their totals. The Liverpool number actually got moved to 71.5 after a heartbeat of thought – it was a pretty aggressive opener anyway. Subsequent Suarez noise pushed it as low as 64.5, but it’s been pretty stable where it rests now.

After saying they would spend some of their massive cash reserves, Arsenal have had a terrible transfer season so far, making zero signings of note. (The current rumor has Luis Gustavo of Bayern Munich likely to bolster them at Defensive Midfield, but the season starts Saturday!). Manchester United have also seen their points total fall, partly due to failed signings, partly due to the Rooney situation, and partly due to a generally unimpressive preseason.

The confusing one in this block is Tottenham. Spurs have strengthened significantly, and it looks like they will keep Gareth Bale for at least one more year. If that’s the case, their current number may represent some value.

On the Up

Two teams have seen big bumps in their expected total numbers, and both of them have signed new forwards. Swansea added talent all over the pitch, including the impressive Wilfried Bony. Bettors seem to believe that Bony will help Swansea overcome their scoring doldrums beyond Michu, despite the fact that they also have to contend with the Europa League for the first time.

The other team to get a big boost is Norwich. Despite being defensively solid last year, Norwich were bereft of almost any creativity on offense. They signed Ricky van Wolfsvinkel from Sporting Lisbon, Gary Hooper from Scotland, Leroy Fer, and Nathan Redmond, adding bodies with some talent to the squad. Manager Chris Hughton did reasonably well to keep them up last season with very limited talent – a similar performance with better talent this year is judged to see them safely mid-table."

As always, the question now is to decide where there’s value to be found. Are Norwich and Swansea really as improved as the markets suggest, or will there be an adjustment period to new parts that isn’t being accounted for?

Will clubs like Manchester United and Arsenal, who have been generally inactive, finally move in the weeks to come? Will Bale, Rooney, Suarez and David Luis stay in their present surroundings or will assorted rumours come to fruition? If your inclination on any of the answers is strong, you have an opportunity. It’s window closes Saturday.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

*Odds subject to change

понедельник, 12 августа 2013 г.

Home Field Advantage in the Premier League

Home Field Advantage in the Premier League

By Michael Gales Aug 12, 2013

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There are numerous tools and techniques bettors can utilise when looking to gain a betting advantage over the markets. One of these is Home Field Advantage, which shows what advantage a home team has.

It’s widely understood that sports teams perform better at home than when they are away or at a neutral ground. For example, in the 2012/13 Premier League season 592 goals were scored by sides at home, while away teams found the back of the net just 471 times. That same distinction has emerged for every season since the football league’s inception in 1888.

If you’re looking for a way to calculate a team’s Home Field Advantage, just follow the steps in our Calculating Home Field Advantage article for one potential HFA metric. Otherwise, read on for HFA information concerning the Premier League

Evidence of HFA in the Premier League

The table below shows a summary of every Premier League season, with home, away and draw percentages, as well as goals per game for home and away fixtures and the differential per game:

The numbers may not seem surprising at first glance, but it is the consistency across 21 Premier League seasons that stands out. Over that period, there was only a 9% variation between home win rates, a smaller variation for away wins (7%) and a rise in the range for draws (11%).

Therefore Premier League teams consistently win nearly half of all home games (46%), while there is a 27% chance of a draw, and 27% for an away win. In short, it shows that there is a lot of evidence for a home advantage in the Premier League.

HFA goal data for the Premier League

The table below showcases the HFA (in goals) of the 11 teams in the Premier League who have been present over the past five seasons. The figure represents the average goal difference for the teams when playing at home, and is predominantly positive:

A quick look at the above table shows some interesting points relating to teams’ home performances. For example, while the top performer at home over the last five years was Manchester United (winning by an average of 1.65 goals at home), the Red Devils had a comparatively poor season in 2012/13, winning by just 0.89 at home.

That was their worst record in the last five years by a notable margin – a strange results from a team that walked the league without much of a challenge. Could it be that Man Utd were excellent, but with some hiccups at home? Or perhaps they rested some of their best players for games at Old Trafford, knowing they were probably good enough to win with a less-than-full-strength team?

It’s also interesting to note Liverpool’s home performance. At 1.09 over five years, the Reds have the fourth-highest HFA in the league, and therefore it seems that the much talked about “affect of the Kop” could actually hold true. Their home form far outweighed their league position in those years.

The Merseysiders have had a poor last two seasons, however, at just 0.42 and 0.89 – is the Anfield effect fading? Or are Liverpool just getting worse, and even their 12th man can’t help them?

Stoke City are another side who are traditionally difficult to tackle at home, however their HFA is one of the worst in the league at 0.28. Are biases regarding their home form just a hangover from another time? Or could you consider a 0.28 home field advantage good for a team of Stoke’s ability in the tough Premier League? The above questions are important for you to answer if you want to correctly use HFA data to place bets.

Interestingly, every team that has been relegated from the Premier League in the past five seasons has had a negative HFA.

Goal-based HFA information has particular significance in Asian Handicap betting. If a team has a home handicap less than their Home Field Advantage, it might make a sensible bet – although this is just one of a number of factors to consider.

For a list of Premier League team’s HFA from last season, check out the table to the left.

Influences on HFA

There are many preconceptions on what influences HFA in soccer – crowd size, travel and weather are a few which have been proposed over the years.

Moskowitz and Wertheim who wrote Scorecasting compiled data to test a variety of these popular theories. What they found was that the most prominent influence was the referee. They found that home teams received small preferential treatment from the referee.

The authors make it clear that the bias is not done consciously, but rather being humans, the referees absorb the raw emotion of a home crowd, and sometimes make a decision subconsciously in favour of the close-by raucous crowd.

Harvard Research Assistant Ryan Boyko researched further proof for the influences on Home Field Advantage.

Boyko studied 5,000 Premier League games from 1992 to 2006 to discern any officiating bias for home teams.

His conclusion was that for every 10,000 home team fans, home team advantage increased by 0.1 goals.

His study also showed that home teams are more likely to receive penalties, particularly from inexperienced referees. Therefore building referee profiles is also important when predicting a match’s outcome.

Click here for the latest Premier League odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

The Wisdom of the Crowd applied to betting

The Wisdom of the Crowd applied to betting

By Mirio Mella Aug 9, 2013

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If you have a difficult conundrum, it’s reasonable to assume that the more people you survey, the better your solution will be. This is known as the ‘wisdom of the crowd’, and is an effective way of making decisions under uncertainty, like estimating the probability of the outcome of sporting events.

The trouble is that sometimes the crowd acts like a foolish herd – so how do you know when the collective is getting things wrong?

How wisdom of the crowds works

Wisdom of the crowds works by averaging estimates from a wide variety of people. The idea is people will equally over- and under-estimate outcomes, leaving the average of their predictions as close to perfect.

Guessing the number of sweets in a large jar is a favourite game at fairs and fetes, and provides a simple illustration of the power of collective wisdom. The most effective way to predict the number of items is to wait until close to the contest deadline, and then simply average all the guesses.

By doing this you are benefiting from the estimates of all the pairs of eyes that have perused that jar. It may a be a little impractical and you will certainly draw a few strange looks as you perch your calculator on the trestle table, but it illustrates how to harness collective wisdom. And could win you a few sweets, too.

Predicting the unknown – the USS Scorpion

The wisdom of the crowds phenomenon was first observed in the late 18th century, although it gained prominence when James Surowiecki devoted an entire book on the subject. Among its fascinating anecdotes is the story of the USS Scorpion submarine, which was lost in the North Atlantic in May 1968.

In its search efforts, the navy was only able to locate the wreck to within a 20-mile range. In a test of collective wisdom, naval officer – Dr. John Craven – gained individual insights from a wide and varied group of naval/salvage experts, and used their collective information to pinpoint a location that turned out to be just 220yds from the wreck of the Scorpion.

So how did these individuals’ unrelated opinions average-out to such accuracy?

Predicting the unknown – Sports betting

Just like locating a shipwreck, the results of sporting events cannot be known a priori, yet even under these conditions the crowd does generally provide an accurate assessment of the respective probabilities of the outcomes.

Odds gain accuracy from the wisdom of the crowds by shaping a bookmaker’s opening line and exposing it to public appraisal.

Very sharp bettors will have their own ideas about opening lines that, when they diverge with the bookmakers, will cause the sharp bettors to bet quickly and re-shape the markets. This happens a lot at Pinnacle Sports because we have the sharpest players – high precision individuals – attracted by the lowest margins.

As markets become more liquid – i.e. more people voice opinion by placing their bets – the market generally moves to its most efficient position, just as the more guesses of the number of sweets the more accurate the averaged guess.

However, in the Scorpion story, Craven restricted his ‘crowd’ to the best available experts, and garnered opinions independently, but in betting high precision individuals aren’t the only participants, and decisions aren’t made in a vacuum, so what happens when other less sophisticated bettors weigh in, and when there is a total absence of sharps?

Behavioural biases & information cascades

The bettors that contribute to the movement of a market are generally drawn from a wide spectrum of knowledge and experience, and there is often a specific distribution to the times that different groups place their bets. lazier judgments normally result in more money on the favourite.

One of the recurring themes in our articles is the importance of understanding behavioural biases, and how they can impede rational risk assessment. As already mentioned, sharp players tend to act soonest, while public money – effectively less informed betting – tends to happen closest to event start times, and frequently reflects very general rules of thumb, e.g. “which team am I more familiar with?”, “which team do I recall winning more often?”, “which team is everyone else betting on?”

These lazier judgments normally result in more money on the favourite, skewing the market away from its most efficient position. This is an illustration of how the wisdom of the crowd can be replaced by the foolishness of the herd.

Public money may distort rather than reverse a market, but this kind of collectively poor reasoning – known as an Information Cascade – can have far greater impact.

Wooden roads & Harry Redknapp

Examples of information cascades outside of betting include a run on the bank, or the rise and swift fall of wooden roads in the 19th century (if you are intrigued by this, read Surowiecki). In the betting world, the managerial markets often follow the information cascade model, with the events following Fabio Capello’s resignation as England manager on February 8th 2012 a salient example. Bettors were willing to wager huge amounts at odds as low as 1.01 that Harry Redknapp would replace Capello as the England manager.

In this situation, precision individuals were absent, as the market was driven to an inaccurate judgment, but the arguments for Redknapp were persuasive (there was momentum behind an English manager, Redknapp had enjoyed a successful spell with Spurs and the public was seemingly behind his appointment) and many bettors were willing to rely on the judgment of others. (and the media) – And not being privy to the information of others assumed that it amounted to more than just speculation or wishful thinking. It didn’t – Roy Hodgson was announced as the new England manager on 1st May 2012.

In an information cascade decisions are made sequentially, generating momentum, as the effect of incremental decisions being based on the existing opinion that helped build the feedback loop that drove the price down.

The information cascade phenomenon underlines the point from the Scorpion anecdotes – the harder the question, and/or the weaker the knowledge pool the less reliable the collective wisdom.

Pump and dump – market manipulation

Motivation is a key factor in forming and movement of markets. Speculators are motivated by profit but the ways in which this can be achieved are divergent. In the financial world Pump & Dump commonly refers to the practice of hyping shares to inflate their price and enable short-term gains, while the inverse is also common with shortening of shares that are driven down by negative speculation. These tactics equally apply within betting, and the speed with which information now disseminates (via social media) can make this even more pertinent.

Niche markets

Notwithstanding some of biases we have outlined, the more liquid a market, the better the collective wisdom. This applies to major sports – big soccer leagues, US major league sports and tennis grand slams, but niche sports can provide opportunities because of the absence of information.

There will be far fewer high precision individuals betting the market, and it will also test the knowledge of the bookmakers, which presents opportunities for those bettors prepared to do the research, and who are able to recognize/react when the market is lacking true direction.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

воскресенье, 11 августа 2013 г.

Will Cain maul ‘bigfoot’ again?

Will Cain maul ‘bigfoot’ again?

By Gary Wise May 22, 2013

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The UFC 160 main event sees Cain Velasquez fight Antonio Silva on May 25th in Las Vegas. Velasquez is favourite to defend his UFC heavyweight belt for the first time since reclaiming it, against Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva. Will Cain keep his belt? We look at a few fight indicators that may help you arrive at an answer.

The Rematch

It was precisely 364 days before UFC 160 that Velasquez (11-1 9KO’s) and Silva 6.500* (18-4 13KO’s) last locked horns. In that fight, Velasquez 1.149* looked to be returning to peak form after losing his belt to Junior dos Santos.

He scored early on his one takedown attempt and kept his larger opponent down by landing an astounding 53/84 strikes in the 216 seconds it took him to finish the fight. It was a dominant performance that acted as a harbinger of Cain’s dominant rematch with Dos Santos, in which he regained the title.

Judging this match-up exclusively on the basis of it being a rematch is difficult. UFC commentator Joe Rogan has said that rematches see a different decision than their initial installments 50% of the time, but little statistical work has be shown to the public in order to back this claim.

In the last 5 years, we’ve seen six rematch examples with title implications. While by no means definitive, this pie chart shows that in the last six title fight rematches, five saw a repeat winner, with the lone exception being Machida-Rua, whose first result was popularly panned as a questionable judging decision.

This may suggest that champions don’t fluke their way to titles and are more likely to win in a rematch than non-champion fighters, though the sample size is certainly too small to judge definitively.

The madness of heavyweight title defenses

While the recent history of title rematches favours Cain, the recent history of the UFC heavyweight championship does not. Have a look at the challenges to the heavyweight (and interim heavyweight) belts over the last 5 years:

*Interim Heavyweight champion

To summarise, in those nine fights, the challenger has won six times. Again, sample size is a factor, but it goes to show the volatility inherent in trying to withstand the best shots from heavyweight fighters on a consistent basis. In the UFC, no heavyweight champion has made three consecutive successful defenses.

Tale of the tape

Velasquez has made a career by using the size of bigger men against them, so it’s no surprise that Silva has a 3-inch height advantage and 5 additional inches of reach. Silva is also approximately 25 pounds the heavier.

The two fight at decidedly different tempos, as you can see in the table on the left.

Cain throws and lands far more punches than Silva and with greater accuracy. Furthermore, Cain’s striking defense is better than Bigfoot’s. With Silva’s jaw seeming questionable with his last two losses (to Cain and Cain’s teammate Daniel Cormier) coming by knockout, keeping the fight of the mat seems to work to the champion’s advantage. Silva’s knockout power is a legitimate threat though; he’s knocked out his last two opponents.

While Cain is the superior grappler, he has reason to avoid taking things to the ground too early, as Silva’s Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt means submissions are a threat. Of course, none of this stopped Cain from taking Silva down a year ago. That didn’t turn out too badly for him.

Click here to see the best UFC 160 odds.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please contact the author.

*Odds subject to change

Why Asian View will improve live soccer betting

What Asian View offers live soccer bettors?

By Mirio Mella May 23, 2013

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All customers now have access to our Asian View layout, and we’re excited about the enhancements this should bring, especially for live soccer bettors. So as we approach the Confederations Cup we’re focusing on those aspects of Asian View that will appeal specifically to live soccer bettors.

Bet Slip – Faster wager processing

The most obvious change between Asian View and Classic (referring to the default website view) is the addition of a Bet Slip. The Bet Slip replaces the Bet Confirmation process from the Classic Site. This provides the immediate benefit of a faster betting process, which is acutely relevant to live soccer bettors where speed is critical.

AV Bet Ticket

Updating Odds – One click acceptance

One concern we received from bettors regarding the Classic Site is the way in which changing odds are handled during the bet process – which proved a hindrance to live soccer betting.

With Asian View the additional benefit of the Bet Slip allows odds to automatically update without any need to renew the process of making your selection. You just need to click once to accept the updated odds and continue to place your bet.

Payout & Limits – The important details

The Asian View Bet Slip can either calculate your potential Payout based on the amount you want to Risk/Stake or calculate your Risk/Stake based on the amount you want To Win (potential Payout). Both options are calculated on the fly.

The maximum available Bet Limit for the specific market is displayed at the base of the Bet Slip, which is another very important detail. Pinnacle Sports prides itself on offering some of the highest soccer betting limits in the industry and the Confederations Cup final is no different with the pre-game limit anticipated to reach $500k.

This is one illustration of how our fundamental principals remain despite significant changes in presentation. If you hold accounts with other bookmakers, ask yourself whether they display limits

And if they do how they compare with Pinnacle Sports, especially for live soccer.

If you hold accounts with other bookmakers, ask yourself whether they display limits.

Menu Logic – All live soccer action in on place

Another feature that live soccer bettors will appreciate with Asian View, when compared with the Classic site, is the menu logic. The structure is based on a top level of main Sports categories followed by a choice of Time periods for when events happen, rather than the league-by-league taxonomy of the Classic view.

AV Live Markets

Live is therefore a main category under Soccer (alongside Today & Early) within which you can view all current live soccer offerings – indicated by the number in brackets. If however you wish to drill down to view only a select number of leagues you can easily do so by choosing the ‘Select Leagues’ option. You maybe surprised by the number of live soccer markets we offer.

You maybe surprised by the number of live soccer markets we offer.

Simple, Single & Double Lines – You Choose

The name Asian View refers to the preferred way to bet within Asia, which focuses predominantly on handicap options. As a result the Asian View defaults to a Simple Line odds display, which means that you see only the available Game level Handicap and Total options on one line.

However, as we appreciate that bettors’ preference vary from region to region you can choose from two alternative view options:

Single Line – This offers the same options as Simple but with the addition 1st Half, Handicap and Total options on the same line.

Double Line – This is popular with European bettors as it includes 12’s and displays the odds on multiple lines. If the 12 is your primary focus you can alternatively select Moneyline from the main menu and see just the Home, Draw & Away odds for your chosen league selections.

Timezone & Results – Small but important details

A less prominent feature of Asian View that will nonetheless improve your experience is the ability to choose the Time Zone that the betting menu works to. This ensures that you can plan your betting schedule around your local time settings so won’t miss a minute of the betting action.

AV Time Zone

Asian View also provides access to historical results so you can check on how your bets have done or use information to inform your betting decisions.

What stays the same?

The odds, limits, available markets and bet types are exactly the same whether using the Classic or Asian View. All that changes is the way in which you choose to view them.

Log-In & Access Asian View Now

Log in as usual to www.pinnaclesports.com then use the drop-down at the top of the screen. If you log-out from the Asian View, the next time you log-in, you will automatically be taken to the Asian View, but can switch between the two.

Asian View drop-down

But I prefer the Classic View

If you find you prefer the Classic View, no problem. You can switch between the views as much or as little as you like.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding the Asian View, please contact us.