Opta Stats: Wigan v Southampton

Can Mauricio Pochettino pick up his first win as Southampton manager?

It's a real six-pointer at the bottom of the Premier League, as Wigan face the rapidly improving Southampton.

This is the first time that Wigan have entertained Southampton at home in any competition. Wigan are 2.265/4 to record the occasion with a win.

Wigan have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 13 Premier League home games and won none of the last five there (D1 L4). Southampton are 3.55/2 to grab an away win.

The Saints have thrown away 22 points from leading positions this season, more than any other side. Southampton half-time/the draw full-time can be backed at 16.015/1.

Other than Manchester United, Wigan are the only Premier League team not to draw a game 0-0 this season. Over 1.5 goals can be backed at 1.292/7.

Only 11 different Southampton players have been shown a yellow card this season, a smaller spread than any other Premier League club. Wigan are 2.021/1 to win the bookings match bet.

Southampton mustered 20 shots (inc. blocked) in their match at Manchester United in midweek, the highest total by an away team there this season. The Saints are 1.374/11 to score a goal.

Southampton have made more unsuccessful passes than any other team (2301). Wigan are 3.412/5 to keep a clean sheet.

The Saints have lost only two of their last seven Premier League away games (W2 D3 L2), and those defeats were by a single goal at Old Trafford and Anfield. Southampton are 2.546/4 in the Draw no Bet market.

Franco Di Santo has scored in his last two Premier League away games but has not scored at home since October 6th 2012. Di Santo is available at 7.06/1 to break his home duck with the opening goal. 

Morgan Schneiderlin has been booked in three of his last five Premier League appearances and has made more tackles than any other player in the division this season (95). You can get odds of 5.24/1 that there will be a red card. 

Opta Stats: Error-prone Arsenal to give Stoke a chance

Thomas Vermaelen has been doing a lot of grimacing lately

As the Premier League fixtures come round thicker than a five-dollar shake, Christian Crowther uses the Opta stats to offer up more golden tips...

Arsenal v Stoke (Saturday, 15:00)
Arsenal have made more errors leading directly to a goal than any other team in the Premier League this season (12)
Anyone who caught the highlights of Arsenal's midweek clash with Liverpool would have witnessed one of the most calamitous opening goals of the season at the Emirates. Firstly Bacary Sagna's ill-timed slip allowed Glen Johnson to get in a cross, before Thomas Vermaelen's air shot found its way to Daniel Sturridge. Sturridge's blocked shot then received another miscued attempt at a clearance before Luis Suarez gratefully swept home. With defending like this, it's no surprise the Gunners have kept one clean sheet in nine games. 
Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 1.981/1 

Newcastle v Chelsea (Saturday, 15:00)
Chelsea have scored the first goal of the game on more occasions than any other Premier League side this season (16)
The long trip to the north east should give Rafa Benitez and his players plenty of time to perform an autopsy on their last-gasp capitulation at Reading. If Chelsea's boss is looking for shreds of comfort then his side's ability to at least get into winning positions should provide some reassurance. As they did against the Royals, Chelsea have notched their first goal within five minutes either side of the break in their two previous Premier League road trips. The Blues carry a great record at St James' Park too, unbeaten in five, including three victories.
Recommended Bet: Back the first goal to be between 41-50 minutes @ 10.09/1

Reading v Sunderland (Saturday, 15:00)
Each of Reading's last four Premier League games have gone over 2.5 goals
Reading's comebacks in recent weeks have not only earned much admiration, they have also lifted them out of the relegation zone for the first time since November ahead of Sunderland's visit. Of course, the main feature of all those great escapes has been goal-filled scorelines, with each one of their last six games in all competitions breaching the 2.5 goals mark and five of those topping the 3.5 line. Not to be outdone, six of the Mackems' last seven away league games have produced more than 2.5 goals also.
Recommended Bet: Back over 2.5 goals @ 2.0621/20

Wigan v Southampton (Saturday, 15:00)
Southampton mustered 20 shots (including blocked) in their match at Manchester United in midweek, the highest total by an away team there this season
It's not often that Sir Alex Ferguson heaps praise on opposing teams at Old Trafford, but then again Manchester United still won. Southampton really were the better side against United, pressing the Red Devils high up the pitch from the first minute to the last. Those Saints fans still harbouring bitterness towards the new manager's appointment will quickly move on if Mauricio Pochettino's side continue to play in this matter. Wigan should make generous hosts, as the Latics haven't won a game at home since November in any compettion, and have only won two all season.
Recommended Bet: Back Southampton to win @ 3.55n/a

Sandstormers: Maverik can be the Top Gun

Matt adds three horses to the Sandstormers list.

Timeform's Matt Gardner comes bearing good news with the latest update to our regular Sandstormers column...

Sandstormers is off the mark! It may have taken a little while in terms of time (just under two months since we kicked off this column), but the Paul Cole-trained Stormbound was only our tenth runner. The motive behind including him in the column was that he would improve in handicaps, having gone close in that sphere on his penultimate start, Cole stuck him in a maiden against a well-fancied John Gosden representative and he duly landed the spoils at 2/1. The four-year-old didn't enjoy the clearest of runs through at Wolverhampton and, for a while, it appeared that he was going to be a hard luck story but jockey Raul da Silva managed to extricate him in time to win by a length. He is likely to continue in form, will go back into handicaps off just a 2 lb higher mark than his initial one, which seems more than fair, and he holds an entry at Lingfield on February 3 over a mile. 

Premature celebrations can be highly amusing (click HERE to see the Japanese fans rejoicing as Orfevre appeared to seal the Arc) but I was kicking myself having punched the air a furlong out as Jack My Boy looked set to win at Lingfield, only to be mown down by the Peter Hedger-trained Sister Guru, who caused a surprise by winning at 33/1. Jack My Boy is on a long losing run, stretching back to May 2010, but he looks capable of getting back on the scoresheet.

Gung Ho Jack had his second outing since being added to the list and, like on the first occasion, bumped into the William Haggas-trained Polar Venture who has the potential to make up into a useful sprint handicapper. Gung Ho Jack ran creditably but appeared to be beaten on merit having been better positioned that a few, and it may just be that he has little in hand from his present mark. 

Our only other runner in the last week was Compton Crofter, who put up his best performance yet on the figures to finish second at Kempton over a mile last night. He was nibbled at in the market, sent off at 10/1 having been available at 16s earlier in the day, and as expected was suited by running at shorter than a mile and a half but he never really had a chance to get on terms with the runaway winner Litmus. He is definitely of interest however from this sort of mark, and he holds an entry over 10 furlongs at Kempton next week, a distance which could prove ideal. 

Time to top up our list of horses to follow, starting with the Pat Phelan-trained Bubbly Braveheart. The six-year-old hasn't won since April 2011 but, returning from a nine-month absence, didn't shape too badly on his penultimate start at Lingfield. He failed to build on that last time at Kempton but he travelled strongly to lead upon entering the straight but seemed stretched by the 12 furlongs faced that day, a distance at which he has never convinced with his stamina. He is potentially well treated on a BHA mark of 51 and looks capable of getting his head in front once more if returned to a mile and a quarter. 

Haywain is the next addition to the list and fear not that the four-year-old hasn't achieved anything obviously of note in six starts to date. His two efforts since being returned to the all-weather have been more encouraging, possibly in need of the run on his penultimate outing before improving upon that, in first-time blinkers, earlier this month over a mile and half a furlong. The four-year-old was driven around the home turn but stuck to his task well and ought to be suited by a return to at least nine furlongs, ideally further, and his front-running style of racing could be perfectly suited to racing at the soon to be re-opened Southwell; the suspicion is that he can prove capable of defying a BHA mark of 64 given that he remains relatively unexposed. 

The final one to add this week is Maverik, trained by Ralph Beckett, who returned from a three month absence with an excellent effort in defeat at Lingfield. The five-year-old has gained three of his five career wins on the all-weather, two of which came at this sort of time last year, and with his stable in excellent form he looks to have a decent chance of repeating the success this time around. 

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

Racing Post Greyhound TV: The dogs to back over the next three nights

Three nights of top class dog action await

The Lord is primed for three nights of quality greyhound racing as RPGTV kicks off the week with Henlow and Hove tonight (Thursday), Sunderland and Romford tomorrow (Friday) and Crayford and Newcastle on Saturday...

Kicking off with Henlow and Inslips (20:26) will have improved for his return race last week and his terrific early speed could be key against fellow sprinting types Head Case and Denwill Rocket, while Forest Dot (20:58) is a cracking sort on the bunny and her form here plus the draw and her early pace might be too good to miss.

Stress Force (21:48) could represent value despite dropping down in distance, with his finish set to reap dividends with trouble ahead, while kennelmate Stress Impact (22:03) didn't quite get the breaks at Romford but has run two solid races to win here previously, and a lead is very much on the cards here against Savana Roberto.

Over at Hove, Droopys Casspi (20:18) showed great pace to win a D1 last week and might have turned the corner to strike again, while Rayvin Again (20:34) has the advantage of a vacant trap inside and could strike earlier here after some fair 475 runs.

Carkei Glen (20:50) has run two solid races at Romford showing plenty of pace and could take advantage of a prime pitch inside in one of the many sprints on the card, while Ard To Beat (21:06) ran a cracker latest and should still be improving just fourth time up against useful types Tullna Hawk and Slippery Patch.

Jolly Bullseye (21:40) may prefer a draw closer to the middle but did ping latest before blowing up, and will improve in what looks a terrific 515m race, where Swift Signal is a 695m star but also packs a real finish over this trip. Benkaat Blue and Larrikin are also in here. Good race.

Maui Hawk (22:26) ran a cracker last time considering he never dominated and showed some great back-straight pace. The draw with a vacant trap outside may help him strike at the expense of improving pair Sidaz Dippy and Makeit Magic.

On Friday, it's another quality card at Romford spiced by the maiden stayers' final over 575m in which the Monmore trainer Chris Allsopp has the nap hand with half of the field!

Allsopp's trio include heat winners Sidelight and Sharp Bullet, plus the strong Joscar, but they could all be out of luck with Keith Allsop (no relation!) looking good for victory if Swift Saleen (21:24) repeats his lightning start in the heat and escapes the pack.

Millridge Blue (19:31) won well last week and another sprint victory looks on the cards in the opener, with his trainer David Allen perhaps having a ready-made replacement for the sidelined Fernhill Jess.

Tunnel Tiger (20:18) made up huge ground last week and, if turning handy, might be tough to hold over 400m, while Hove raider Droopys Franklin (20:34) has shaped as if 575m will suit and could win another maiden stayers' race.

Sids Ninja (20:50) ran a decent race behind a good winner latest and might be the answer to a cracking maiden race, with Crucial Kaka the biggest danger after staying on well latest behind Glory Stream.

And Glory Stream (22:11) himself will be tough to hold if pinging the lids like he did last week and looks a nice prospect, with Sequential (21:06) looks set to bounce back earlier from a defeat last week with the wider draw set to help her trap better.

Nans Turbo (22:26) impressed last week and could double up in a cracking 400m race, where Sharons Return and Millstreet Lar are big dangers if starting faster, while Droopys English (22:40) could get back on track with a plot draw in the finale.

Its Golden Jacket night at Crayford on Saturday with the heats of the prestigious, lucrative and fantastic betting event - and the best bets of six heats might prove to be Lode Vanquish (19:46), Blonde Reagan (20:02), Ayamzabeauty (20:34), Ballymac Swift (20:50), Express Trend (21:24) and Romeo Explosion (21:40).

Timeform US SmartPlays: Tuesday January 29

Our US team have picked out three bets today

Turf Paradise race 6 (21:54 GMT) win lay #1 AGENT SCULLY at 3.613/5 or shorter
Charles Town race 1 (00:15 GMT) win back #5 TWIRLER at 3.55/2 or longer
Charles Town race 5 (02:04 GMT) win lay #6 SILENT REVIVAL at 3.55/2 or shorter

Dylan Honeyman Wins Event #7 of the 2013 Aussie Millions

Dylan Honeyman (Image: Poker Asia Pacific.com)

Dylan Honeyman is a very accomplished online poker tournament player. For years he has terrorised players at the virtual felt under the alias "WhiteRabbito," but he has struggled to transfer his form into the live arena. Until now.

Honeyman was one of 355 players who bought into the $1,650 No Limit Hold'em Bounty tournament, and what a decision that turned out to be. Day 1 was a couple of days ago, fast forward to today and Honeyman has won his first major live title of his career, becoming Event #7 of the 2013 Aussie Million's champion.

2013 Aussie Million Event #7 Final Table Seat Draw

Seat 1: George Giannopoulos - 584,000 chips
Seat 2: Daniel Lee - 687,000
Seat 3: Fabian Craib - 926,000
Seat 4: Tam Truong - 609,000
Seat 5: Julius Colman - 632,000
Seat 6: Frank Rusnak - 677,000
Seat 7: Will Jones - 596,000
Seat 8: Dylan Honeyman - 630,000

It did not take long at all for the eight-handed table to lose its first player, that dubious honour going to Daniel Lee. After making an ill-timed move with ace-eight against Honeyman's queens, Lee was left nursing an eight big blind stack and in was in real bad shape. He got his remaining chips into the middle with As-10c and ultimately lost the the Ad-Qd of Julius Colman, which flopped two.

Will Jones was the next casualty of the final table, losing to back-to-back Broadway straights. The first saw his Jh-Jd lose to the Ac-Ks of Frank Rusnak, then immediately after that hand, he got his chips in against the Ad-Qd of Colman and when the board ran out 4s-Jd-10d-Kd-3c it was game over for Jones.

Next to head for the sidelines was George Giannopoulos. Down to 180,000 chips, Giannopoulos looked down at Ad-8d and decided to three-bet all-in over the top of a Honeyman raise to 50,000. Honeyman felt priced in to call with his Jh-7s and the dealer got to work putting the community cards into play. By the river the board read 5h-Qs-6s-7d-10h, Honeyman's pair of sevens was the best hand and Giannopoulos was eliminated.

Another player who committed his stack with the best hand but still lost was Fabian Craib. Tam Truong opened the betting with a raise to 60,000 from under the gun and Craib, the last remaining $1,000 bounty in the tournament, three-bet all-in for 400,000 in total. Truong rechecked his cards and called with Kc-9c, finding himself up against the Ac-2d of Craib. The 8s-10d-7s flop gave Truong plenty of extra outs as he picked up an open-ended straight draw. The Qh turn was not one of them, but the 6d was and Craib was dispensed of.

Four became three with the demise of Rusnak. Colman opened to 80,000 and Rusnak thought the best play for his Jd-9c was to move all-in for 600,000 in total. Colman called with a superior Kd-Qd and although neither player's hand improved by the river, Colman's king-high bettered the jack-high of Rusnak and the latter was busted out of Event #7.

The penultimate elimination claimed the scalp of Colman, who just couldn't put the chips he won from Rusnak to good use. Colman got a little frisky with 6d-4s on a 4c-2s-9h flop and ran into the Ad-9s of Honey man. No six or four appeared on the turn or river, and  Colman was left with just 6,000 chips. These went into the middle on the next hand, Colman's Qc-9d losing to the 8c-4c of Honeyman when the board ran out 7c-2c-Ac-Ad-Kc.

Going into the heads-up encounter, Honeyman trailed Truong by 2.3 million to 3.075 million chips. Within minutes, Honeyman had drawn level, then pulled in front, only to see Troung reclaim the lead again! After swapping the title of chip leader several times, Honeyman finally ran out on top.

The final hand saw Honeyman open to 125,000 and Truong call. Truong checked the arrival of the Ac-Kc-2c flop, but when Honeyman fired a continuation bet of 140,000 Truong check-raised to 280,000. Honeyman was done with his hand though, far from it, instead he raised to 545,000 and after much deliberation, Truong called. The 7h turn as Truong check-raise all-in with Ad-6h but he was drawing completely dead as Honeyman had flopped a flush with his 7c-6c. The meaningless 2s river was the final card dealt in the tournament, and Honeyman had won all of the chips in play.

2013 Aussie Millions Event #7 Final Table Results

1st: Dylan Honeyman - $120,000
2nd: Tam Truong - $78,500
3rd: Julius Colman - $50,000
4th: Frank Rusnak - $40,000
5th: Fabian Craib - $30,000
6th: George Giannopoulos - $25,000
7th: Will Jones - $20,000
8th: Daniel Lee - $15,000

Join Betfair Poker Now

Timeform Daily: Thursday, Wolverhampton 18:50

Timeform look at a sprint handicap at Wolverhampton

Timeform examine each runner in a competitive class 4 handicap...

Dorback won over 5f at Southwell in November and good staying-on second over C&D on New Year's Day. Creditable efforts all 3 starts since and likely to continue to perform well.

Island Legend is best when able to dominate and bounced back to form when making all at Kempton (5f) last month. Ridden too aggressively/finished lame over that C&D next time, but may bounce back here.

Six Wives went close to a tenth career win when touched off over C&D in November (Alaskan Bullet behind). Below form all 3 starts at Lingfield since, but back off a winnable mark and one to consider

Tyfos's best effort in 2012 came when close third to Head Space at Newcastle (5f) in June. Not so good in 3 subsequent runs, though, and needs to put his best foot forward after 6 month absence.

Royal Bajan was blinkered for the first time when dotting up at Southwell (5f) in November. Has been well below form all 5 starts on polytrack since, though, and hopes rest on re-fitting of headgear working oracle.

Verinco had a good spell in 2011 but never found his feet in light campaign last year. Possibly needed run on recent C&D return and dangerous to dismiss from reduced mark.

Alaskan Bullet matched the pick of his form for Michael Bell when taking C&D seller in November and career-best effort from out of weights when third in Lingfield handicap (5f) last week. Tops the shortlist.

Rylee Mooch is a front runner who won over C&D back in March and notched a third success of last year in a 5f Lingfield handicap in November. Below par 4 days later and others preferred after 2-month absence.
 
Triple Dream won 3 times in 2012 and has posted solid placed efforts both starts this year. Holds each-way claims again.

Rocket Rob landed a 5f Sandown handicap in September. Below form at Kempton twice since, though likely to get strong pace which suits here, so not dismissed, especially if the market speaks in his favour.

Timeform 1-2-3:

1. Alaskan Bullet
2. Dorback
3. Rocket Rob

Timeform View: The presence of several prominent racers may set this up for the likes of Alaskan Bullet, Dorback and Rocket Rob, with the first named of particular interest after a smashing effort at Lingfield just over a week ago.

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

In-Play Hints: Michel le Bon to rock rivals?

The Paul Nicholls-trained Michel le Bon could be at an advantage

Using their In-Play Hints, Timeform try to predict how a pair of races at Wincanton will unfold...

Race: 14:40 Wincanton- 2m 5f Handicap Chase

Pace Forecast: Contested

Specific Pace Hint: With no shortage of likely pace-forcers, Carrickboy may need to be ridden further back than in its recent starts: Arthurian Legend tends to race further back than some and could be suited by having a good pace to run at.

Individual Price Hint: Milarrow traded at more than 5 times BSP twice when winning during its last 5 starts: Royal Charm traded at 10% or less of BSP and 50% or less of BSP twice on 3 of its last 5 starts.

Short Priced Hint: Ballyallia Man traded at a high of 3.55 and BSP of 3.38 when winning last time, a race in which it raced prominently and travelled strongly early on.

Race: 3m 1f 110yds Veterans' Handicap Chase

Pace Forecast: Contested

Specific Pace Hint: With no shortage of likely pace-forcers, Richard's Sundance may need to be ridden further back than in its recent starts: Michel Le Bon tends to race further back than some and could be suited by having a good pace to run at.

Individual Price Hint: Jaunty Journey traded at 10% or less of BSP, 25% or less of BSP and 50% or less of BSP on 3 of its last 5 starts: Tamarinbleu traded at 10% or less of BSP, 25% or less of BSP and 50% or less of BSP twice on 4 of its last 5 starts.

Short Priced Hint: Michel Le Bon traded at a low of 10.50 and BSP of 12.00 when losing last time, a race in which it raced towards the rear.

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

O'Driscoll will be hungry for a Six Nations swansong

Brian O'Driscoll... a leader with or without the captain's title

Brian O'Driscoll's demotion to the ranks marks the end of an era for Irish rugby, but Ralph Ellis reckons it will fire up the veteran star to show Wales - and The Lions - that he's still got what it takes.

There are some things about sport you take for granted. When I was growing up it was that Bobby Moore was England captain. I presume a modern young Chelsea fan can't think of a time when John Terry won't be the man who wears the armband at Stamford Bridge. And if you were an Irish rugby fan then it has been a given that Brian O'Driscoll is the man who leads out the team at the start of the Six Nations.

But not any more. For the first time in ten years O'Driscoll will be in the Irish team, but not the captain, when he lines up against Wales in the Millenium Stadium on Saturday. It is a seismic shift in the sport and seems to throw a massive responsibility on the shoulders of the new leader Jamie Heaslip.

But does it? The more I think about it, the more the decision to relegate one of Ireland's all-time greats back to the rank and file is a brilliant decision by coach Declan Kidney. He gets two captains for the price of one.

Heaslip is bright eyed and bushy tailed at being given the honour, determined to inspire the boys around him. And meanwhile do you think O'Driscoll will be any less of a leader just because he doesn't have the title? Absolutely not.

The 34-year-old with 120 caps still has unfinished business as far as the Lions are concerned and remains a candidate to be the captain when Warren Gatland names his tour party. There has been money for Heaslip who is now 3.55n/a in Betfair's Specials market to be Lions Captain as an alternative candidate to 1.8810/11 favourite Sam Warburton. But O'Driscoll wants the job and knows the best way to get it is to deliver superb performances in the next few weeks.

He missed last season's Six Nations after surgery to free a trapped nerve in his neck and shoulder, and another ten weeks out at the end of 2012 following ankle surgery has left a man hungry for success. "He is challenging everybody in training as he always does," is how Kidney defines his mood.

Ireland have exciting young players coming into their side, with wingers Craig Gilroy and Simon Zebo being promoted. But the beauty is they will step out with experienced help alongside them which gives Kidney's team a real balance. Heaslip talked yesterday about the numbers of caps along the back row resembling a lotto ticket - 41, 1, 120, 71, 3. It sounds like a winning line.

I was thinking this way even before I read Will Greenwood's column yesterday. I'm not sure I necessarily agree that the Irish are Grand Slam contenders, I think England are stronger providing Owen  Farrell is given the freedom to play at number ten. But his views do support the belief that odds-against for Ireland to start the campaign with a win over Wales - the price is 2.35/4 - are well worth taking.

Even at 34 and with so many Tests behind him his fire for success burns as bright as ever. Saturday's visit to Cardiff gives him one more chance to prove it. O'Driscoll's demotion marks the shifting of time but it doesn't mean his era has ended yet.

Mario Balotelli's Top Ten Moments: The best of Balo's stay in Blighty

Mario Balotelli is soon to leave these shores for Milan

With the news that Mario Balotelli may be leaving our shores to return to Italy after a two-and-a-half-year stint in the Premier League, Luke Moore takes a look back over his most memorable moments.

1. Why Always Me?

After opening the scoring against Manchester United at Old Trafford during City's title-winning season, Super Mario pulled his shirt over his head to reveal a t-shirt asking 'Why Always Me?' in reference to the heavy media attention he was receiving. He went on to score another in a 1-6 drubbing of United but it's the celebration that has lived long in the memory.

2. Setting his own house on fire

There are some things that happen accidentally and are more a case of misfortune than genuine clumsiness, and then there is setting your own house on fire because you were letting off fireworks indoors. At school, we were shown plenty of firework safety videos and not one of them included the tip 'Don't let them off inside your own house', presumably because that was a given. No-one would actually be that stupid. Enter Balotelli, who later that weekend scored two goals against Manchester United in the aforementioned game and seemed remarkably unfazed by the incident. He subsequently tried to make up for his error by fronting a fire safety awareness campaign which he himself clearly should have just watched in the first place. 

3. That shopping trip

Sent out on a fairly routine mission to buy an iron for his mother, our hero returned empty-handed after failing to secure the item. So far, so ordinary. What wasn't ordinary however was the van that turned up later delivering a table-tennis table, a Scalextric, a giant trampoline and two Vespas. 

We can only imagine the conversation in the Balotelli household shortly afterwards: 

'Have you ironed that shirt yet?'
'Er, sort of.' 
'What's taking you so long?'
'This table tennis bat is rubbish!'

But in Italian, obviously.

4. That Euro 2012 semi-final

Among all the lurid details of his off-field antics, Balotelli's destruction of a strong Germany side in the semi-final of Euro 2012 was a potent reminder of his undoubted talent. His second was a sublime effort of great power and precision as he rifled the ball past Manuel Neuer who could do nothing but sink to his knees in dejection. Mario went on to be joint top-scorer in the tournament and reminded us all that he is indeed a footballer of some eminence.

5. That training ground bust-up

Unfortunately, a public footpath runs through Man City's training ground and provides a safe haven for paparazzi who want to grab a photo of Roberto Mancini's charges playing keep ball of a Tuesday morning. Or in Mario's case, fighting with the manager. In scenes not observed since Joey Barton left the club, Mancini and Balotelli went at it, toe to toe, stripped to the waist, to the death. 

Well, ok, they just grabbed each other for a bit. Didn't stop the red tops going mad though, did it?

6. Those hats and haircuts

Whatever one thinks of Balotelli in a footballing sense, sartorially it's hard to deny he regularly tests the eye. Whether it's a hat strangely reminiscent of the penguin in The Wrong Trousers, a bleached blond mohican or a multi-coloured dyed effort with the number 17 printed in it, it's never boring. 

7. That backheel against LA Galaxy

In a move that sent the old guard on the punditry sofa absolutely apoplectic with rage, our intrepid hero once, when through on goal against LA Galaxy in a friendly, had the temerity to try a backheel instead of just slotting the ball into the net. While the rest of the football-watching public didn't actually care (it was only a friendly after all), Mark Lawrenson announced him in the 'last chance saloon'. And if there's one place you don't want Mario Balotelli, it's a saloon. They are traditionally very unsafe places.

8. That press conference

When then 36-year-old Andrea Stramaccioni was unveiled as the manager to replace Claudio Ranieri at Inter, most people were pleased for him. He'd steered the youth team to a successful NextGen Series campaign and was a promising young coach. Balo decided he was not only pleased for him however, he was REALLY pleased. So he went and gatecrashed the press conference itself. Despite playing for a team based 750 miles away. An act that Balotelli probably thought constituted normal behaviour.

9. That camouflage car

By Mario's standards, this isn't even that surprising. The only question we have is: When he's parked it somewhere, how does he find it again?

10. That bib

Before a Europa League game against Dynamo Kiev, Mario was unable to don a bib and needed help from the teach...sorry coach to get it over his head. This is a professional footballer at the top of his game who relies on top-notch coordination to ply his trade. It beggars belief. Mario tried to save face by getting angry with the bib itself, which only served to make him look more silly. Mario, it's a bib, it doesn't have sentience. This is YOUR fault.

Racing Post Greyhound TV: The dogs to back over the next three nights

Three nights of top class dog action await

The Lord is primed for three nights of quality greyhound racing as RPGTV kicks off the week with Henlow and Hove tonight (Thursday), Sunderland and Romford tomorrow (Friday) and Crayford and Newcastle on Saturday...

Kicking off with Henlow and Inslips (20:26) will have improved for his return race last week and his terrific early speed could be key against fellow sprinting types Head Case and Denwill Rocket, while Forest Dot (20:58) is a cracking sort on the bunny and her form here plus the draw and her early pace might be too good to miss.

Stress Force (21:48) could represent value despite dropping down in distance, with his finish set to reap dividends with trouble ahead, while kennelmate Stress Impact (22:03) didn't quite get the breaks at Romford but has run two solid races to win here previously, and a lead is very much on the cards here against Savana Roberto.

Over at Hove, Droopys Casspi (20:18) showed great pace to win a D1 last week and might have turned the corner to strike again, while Rayvin Again (20:34) has the advantage of a vacant trap inside and could strike earlier here after some fair 475 runs.

Carkei Glen (20:50) has run two solid races at Romford showing plenty of pace and could take advantage of a prime pitch inside in one of the many sprints on the card, while Ard To Beat (21:06) ran a cracker latest and should still be improving just fourth time up against useful types Tullna Hawk and Slippery Patch.

Jolly Bullseye (21:40) may prefer a draw closer to the middle but did ping latest before blowing up, and will improve in what looks a terrific 515m race, where Swift Signal is a 695m star but also packs a real finish over this trip. Benkaat Blue and Larrikin are also in here. Good race.

Maui Hawk (22:26) ran a cracker last time considering he never dominated and showed some great back-straight pace. The draw with a vacant trap outside may help him strike at the expense of improving pair Sidaz Dippy and Makeit Magic.

On Friday, it's another quality card at Romford spiced by the maiden stayers' final over 575m in which the Monmore trainer Chris Allsopp has the nap hand with half of the field!

Allsopp's trio include heat winners Sidelight and Sharp Bullet, plus the strong Joscar, but they could all be out of luck with Keith Allsop (no relation!) looking good for victory if Swift Saleen (21:24) repeats his lightning start in the heat and escapes the pack.

Millridge Blue (19:31) won well last week and another sprint victory looks on the cards in the opener, with his trainer David Allen perhaps having a ready-made replacement for the sidelined Fernhill Jess.

Tunnel Tiger (20:18) made up huge ground last week and, if turning handy, might be tough to hold over 400m, while Hove raider Droopys Franklin (20:34) has shaped as if 575m will suit and could win another maiden stayers' race.

Sids Ninja (20:50) ran a decent race behind a good winner latest and might be the answer to a cracking maiden race, with Crucial Kaka the biggest danger after staying on well latest behind Glory Stream.

And Glory Stream (22:11) himself will be tough to hold if pinging the lids like he did last week and looks a nice prospect, with Sequential (21:06) looks set to bounce back earlier from a defeat last week with the wider draw set to help her trap better.

Nans Turbo (22:26) impressed last week and could double up in a cracking 400m race, where Sharons Return and Millstreet Lar are big dangers if starting faster, while Droopys English (22:40) could get back on track with a plot draw in the finale.

Its Golden Jacket night at Crayford on Saturday with the heats of the prestigious, lucrative and fantastic betting event - and the best bets of six heats might prove to be Lode Vanquish (19:46), Blonde Reagan (20:02), Ayamzabeauty (20:34), Ballymac Swift (20:50), Express Trend (21:24) and Romeo Explosion (21:40).

Home and Away: Simeone looking to use home advantage in Copa del Rey tie

Simeone will be eyeing domestic cup glory this year

Jonno Turner picks two more selections to boost the bank this Thursday.

We're off to Spain for our first pick of the day, as Atletico Madrid line up against Sevilla in the Copa del Rey semi finals.

Home boss Diego Simeone could welcome back star striker Radamel Falcao into the team after injury, but it is likely that the Colombian will be given a place on the bench at this point.

Nonetheless, his presence in the matchday squad will be a huge boost to the Rojiblancos - who will probably start with in-demand forward Adrian Lopes up top.

The hosts are in formidable form on their own patch, and go into this one unbeaten in 22 - and incredibly they have won their last 19 consecutive outings at the Estadio Vicente Calderon. Simeone will be keen to make their home advantage count here, with a tricky trip to Sevilla coming up in the return fixture at the end of next month.

Three clean sheets from their last trio of Copa del Rey games at home shows that Atletico are taking this competition very seriously, and they will be keen to give themselves a massive advantage in this semi final first leg by not conceding any away goals.

The visitors go into this tie sitting 11th in La Liga, and that is largely down to their inconsistent form which has seen them go four without a win on the road.

Unai Emery's side have won just one of their last three outings in this competition - and four of their last seven away from the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan.

And just one clean sheet from their last four on their travels suggests that they are likely to gift their hosts a chance or two tonight - and with the momentum and vigour shown by the Madrid side in recent weeks, I think that they will come out on top in this first leg.

Bet 1: Atletico Madrid (HOME) @ 1.74

Staying in warmer climes now, and we're off to Portugal - as in-form Leixoes travel to an out of sorts Freamunde side, with the visitors looking to heap the pressure on the top five.

Freamunde sit rock bottom of the Liga de Honra, and go into this one in miserable form having not won in five outings - a run which will have boss Joao Eusebio feeling the heat.

The home side have won one in nine games on their own patch, and that will have knocked confidence as they aim to engineer a turnaround in fortunes.

One of the biggest issues in the Capoes side is their leaky defence - and the home rearguard has not kept a clean sheet in the league since May, a whopping 13 games.

Visitors Leixoes will be full of confidence going into this tie, having won three of their last four encounters.

Nine goals in that time suggests that Litos' side have more than enough quality to punish their opponents this evening, and six without a loss from their last eight away from the Estadio do Mar indicates that they are a good bet to pick up at least a point here.

But three points here could move the visitors as high as fourth in the division, and they will be looking to take the maximum return back to Matosinhos.

History certainly suggests that is a likely scenario - and the away side have lost just one of their last seven meetings with Freamunde.

Bet 2: Leixoes (AWAY) @ 2.52

Cricket Betting: New Zealand no match for England's strength in depth

Alastair Cook looks to maintain an unbeaten series record as England captain

England's cricket team have arrived in Auckland ahead of their series against New Zealand. Richard O'Hagan takes a look at the make-up of the squads and at how the tour might pan out.

If you want some insight into the craziness of the international cricket schedule, consider this: England have just played a one day series in India while New Zealand finished a similar series in South Africa on Friday. Now both have trekked all of the way down to the Land of the Long White Cloud to face each other. That's a lot of air miles.

There were few surprises in the squads announced by England. Stuart Broad is restored to full fitness and to all three squads. Graeme Swann, Jonny Bairstow and Jonathan Trott come back after their breaks from the one day game. Eoin Morgan and Samit Patel having both failed in the number six slot in the Test side, and Joe Root having been a success there, it was obvious who was going to be picked and who wasn't.

There are a couple of interesting tweaks, though. Chris Woakes replaces Tim Bresnan, whose Test bowling average since elbow surgery a year ago is now over 55 and who, it has been decided, will remain in England to have the problem looked at again. Craig Kieswetter finally loses hold of the one day wicket-keeping spot, not to Matt Prior but to Jos Buttler. New Zealand will see that as an area of potential weakness, because Buttler's record in both ODIs and T20Is is inferior to Kieswetter's in every way. 

The most interesting change came two days after the squads were announced, when left arm spinner Danny Briggs had to pull out of the tour with injury. Rather than bring in another specialist spinner, the selectors simply added Root to the T20 squad, relying upon his developing off-spin despite his failure to take a wicket in India. Spin will play less of a role in New Zealand but the extra batting strength that Root will also provide might make it hard for the likes of Bairstow to find their way back into the matchday 11.

Even with these changes England should be strong enough to overcome New Zealand in all three formats. The Black Caps won the limited overs series in South Africa, but it was against a side weakened at times by suspension and injury, neither of which are concerns for England. They may well scrape one of the three games, which makes a 2-1 England win at around 3.02/1 look the best bet. 

In the Test series they looked horribly out of their depth, will again be missing former captain Daniel Vettori and at 3.02/1 a 3-0 series win for England looks a good bet indeed.

Recommended Bet
Back England at around 3.02/1 to win the ODI series 2-1

Ludlow Placepot: Wednesday January 30

Today's Placepot attempt comes from Ludlow

Tony McFadden is glad to see the national hunt action return and he attempts to scoop the Placepot at Ludlow...

13:40- Useful on the Flat for Clive Cox, Little Dutch Girl showed plenty of ability on her first start over hurdles for Nicky Henderson, finishing third in what may turn out to be quite a strong juvenile event at Doncaster. She appeared to know her job pretty well on that occasion, travelling well for much of the way, and she looks sure to go close here.

14:10- The Venetia Williams-trained Sustainability rattled up a four-timer in handicap hurdles last season and appears to have taken well to chasing, winning his latest start at Newbury. That handicap victory marks him down as one of the main protagonists on form and he looks capable of running well for a yard that continues to churn out winners.

14:40- Annaluna probably doesn't have too much in hand over the handicapper, but she is a thorough stayer who often hits the frame and she appeals as a good Placepot type. Both On The Off Chance and Brockwell Park remain open to significant improvement but we will instead opt for one likely to be carrying fewer lines in the shape of the Claire Dyson-trained Qualitee. Jumping has often let her down over fences, but she ran well over hurdles on her penultimate start, possibly not seeing out the extended three miles, and today's contest may see her in a better light. 

15:10- A winner on one occasion over hurdles, Rydalis stepped up her game to score on her chasing debut, beating another of today's rivals, Addiction, into second place. The way in which Venetia Williams' charge travelled and jumped during that race indicates that she may well make a better chaser than a hurdler and she is worth following while her stable remain in such good form. For a bit of insurance, we will also include Quinte du Chateltet. David Pipe's runner is becoming well handicapped on the best of his form and shaped nicely at Exeter last time, possibly finding it too much of a test. He is becoming one to be interested in and we will keep him on our side.

15:40- Not the easiest race to assess but the first horse we will turn to is Nowurhurlin. It is slightly disconcerting that all of his best efforts have come at Carlisle, but the level of form he has produced there makes him of interest. He is no banker, however, so Drussell is also included having made a winning start on his first run for Martin Bosley.

16:10- Angles Hill sets a fairly high standard based on his effort in a competitive Cheltenham handicap and it is well worth forgiving him for his subsequent flop. Given a short break since, he should be capable of bouncing back and will be our sole selection in the final leg.

Selections:
13:40- 9
14:10- 7
14:40- 7, 9
15:10- 1, 6
15:40- 2, 4
16:10- 1
= 8 lines

Did you know that you can bet on the Tote from your Betfair account? Click here for our Tote gateway. 
Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

Follow The Money: Bolero backed to be the punter's Buddy

Two of today's FTM selections run at Leicester

Today's Follow The Money comes from Leicester and Ludlow...

Starting at Leicester and today`s negative on a morning where there has been an absence of any notable drifters Franklin Roosevelt now trades at 2.8815/8 from an early 2.6413/8 in the opening 14.00 contest. Backers haven't exactly fallen over themselves to get involved with David Pipe`s seven-year-old who finished tailed off on his chasing debut earlier this month. His previous hurdles form would give him a decent chance this afternoon however he cannot be backed with any confidence given the run last timeout so a lay looks the call.

Our next mover is in Ludlow`s 14.40 race where there has been some interest in Brockwell Park who has shortened in to 4.57/2 from 6.611/2. This one ran an eye catching race at Huntingdon last time out under today`s pilot Nick Scholfield when making late headway to run on for a place. His mark allocated for this afternoon`s handicap debut appears very fair so looks of interest given the early money.

Back to Leicester for our final selection where Buddy Bolero has been a very solid market leader in the 15.30 race having been backed in to 2.01/1 from 2.747/4. This is another one trained by David Pipe and comes here looking for a three-timer following wins at Folkestone over hurdles and Exeter on chase debut last time out. He is upped in trip on handicap debut today but that is unlikely to stop this Cheltenham Festival entry.

Recommended Bets

Lay Franklin Roosevelt @ 2.8815/8 14:00 Leicester
Back Brockwell Park @ {4.5} 14.40 Ludlow
Back Buddy Bolero @ 2.01/1 15:30 Leicester

Cash Out: Late Lane joy for Tottenham pays dividends

Do You...Don't You? Cash Out is the unique Betfair tool that allows you to lock in a profit or minimise losses regardless of the final result. In a new regular column, Christian Crowther reviews where the optimum Cash Out profits were to be had from last weekend's Premier League action... 

Cash Out is the phrase on every punter's lips and here at Betfair we are so committed to helping our customers find the best value that we have created our very own Cash Out Value league table.

The table works by adding up the total minutes of positive Cash Out return a team has offered throughout each game, then displaying the average over the duration of the season.

All Cash Out value is based on a 25 stake.

Last weekend's Premier League action threw up all sorts of drama at both ends of the table, with 90% of the games producing at least two goals.

Liverpool's 5-0 demolition of Norwich was also one of four games which produced over 3.5 goals as part of a goal-filled showing in the top-flight.

And where there are goals, there are always going to be big cash out opportunities for those with a bit of know-how and a healthy sense of timing.

Observers who got behind a Newcastle win over Reading - but were wise to the goal threat from the bench posed by Adam Le Fondre - could have made a tidy 10.59 profit if they'd cashed out just before the striker's 71st-minute equaliser.

However, it was leaders Manchester United's big Sunday afternoon clash at White Hart Lane which provided the Cash Out dream ticket, thanks to Clint Dempsey's equaliser deep into stoppage time.

While a mixture of David De Gea's ineptitude and a turned down penalty appeal enraged Sir Alex Ferguson at the whistle, those who suspected Tottenham would grab their richly deserved leveller would have been cartwheeling in delight if they'd cashed out on a United victory just before the Texan slotted home.

If the Premier League has taught us anything it's to expect late, late goals and those who applied this principle with Spurs continuing to pepper their visitors' goal, could have walked away with a cool 34.05 profit.

Betfair German Masters Snooker Tips: One player to back from each quarter

Nobody is in better form right now than Mark Allen

Betfair's sponsorship of the snooker scene continues at this week's ranking event, where Paul Krishnamurty is bidding for a hat-trick of winners, having successfully tipped Mark Selby at the Masters and Martin Gould in the Shootout. Read his betting plan for the German Masters here...

Back Ali Carter 2u @ 26.025/1

Prior to the Masters, I argued Ali Carter was an improving player, still under the market's radar. Although he failed to deliver against John Higgins on that occasion, the theory still stands and the Captain deserves another chance from this draw. He's positioned in a section where his two supposed 'superiors' look well worth opposing. Judd Trump has already fallen victim to the improved Carter at last year's World Championship and after dire performances at both the UK Championship and Masters, the Juddernaut is becoming a very risky betting proposition. 

Mark Williams was even worse during those two majors and could well be in terminal decline. Furthermore even dangerous floaters in this section such as Mark Davis and Tom Ford have already lost at the last-64 stage, leaving these three seeds relatively little to beat in order to reach the semis. 

Back Shaun Murphy 3u @ 17.016/1

By contrast, the second quarter looks extremely tough, containing numerous potential champions. Apart from Murphy, Neil Robertson, Stuart Bingham and Masters semi-finalist Graeme Dott all deserve to enter calculations. Murphy has become very reliable during the opening rounds and is strongly fancied to reach at least the quarter finals, where either Robbo or Bingham will likely await. 

Although Shaun came up short against Robertson in the Masters semi, the Aussie may not represent the same formidable presence here, having reportedly taken last week off. Robbo tends to save his best for the majors these days and, in order to set up a rematch with Murphy in the last-eight, will need to overcome dangerous qualifier Daniel Wells and bang-in-form Bingham. Punters taking this level of pre-tournament odds about Murphy with a view towards trading will have racked up plenty of profit in recent years and the Magician looks overdue another title.

Back John Higgins 6u @ 9.08/1

The third section doesn't look like it will take much winning, with seeded players Ricky Walden and Matthew Stevens below their best of late. That leaves old sparring partners John Higgins and Stephen Maguire set to form an all-Scottish quarter-final. The latter is always respected but very unreliable so preference must be for the four-times world champion, who is chasing his third title of the season. Higgins tends to start tournaments slowly before coming into his own during the latter stages so opening matches against the limited Peter Lines and declining Ken Doherty offer the perfect draw in that respect.

Back Mark Allen 4u @ 14.5n/a

If there's a standout angle for snooker betting over the next few weeks, it has to be backing Mark Allen whilst the Pistol remains available at double-figure odds. If recent form were the criteria, the Northern Irishman deserves to be favourite. He was only edged out by Neil Robertson in a deciding frame at the Masters, in what was the best match of the tournament. Next, he won Group 4 at the Championship League, winning all eight matches for the loss of just five frames, before finishing runner-up over the weekend at the Shootout.

Allen is expected to ease into the quarter-finals, where either Mark Selby or Ding Junhui will probably await. Although the former is world number one and enjoying the most prolific run of his career, the Jester is far from unbeatable and was thrashed 3-0 by Allen at Crondon Park last week.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle: Make a winning start to Cheltenham 2013

Puffin Billy (right) on his way to winning at Ascot.

As the countdown to Cheltenham begins to build up a head of steam, Timeform's Matt Gardner attempts to find the winner of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle...

The anticipation of what Cheltenham 2013 has to offer will at no stage, no matter how excited you are now, exceed the level at which it will be at around 13:28 on March 12. The Supreme Novices' Hurdle is the opening race of the meeting and accruing that extra bit of punting confidence by nailing the winner will do wonders for your finances throughout the week- at least that's what I thought as I celebrated the success of Cinders And Ashes last year. What it actually brought about was a run of dismal personal results, abated only slightly on the Thursday by the tiniest of wagers on Cape Tribulation, but by that time my wallet, and confidence, had already been well and truly decimated. 

Nevertheless the theory still stands that winners lead to more winners, the Midas touch, "I'm feeling lucky now", and all the other jargon that regularly gets wheeled out by someone who's just backed the victor, which heaps that bit of additional pressure upon our selection for this race. Where shall we begin in our quest for the winner? Well, seeing as the two at the head of the market are trained in Ireland we best cram ourselves onto a Ryanair flight across the Irish Sea. 

Speaking of Ryanair, Chief Executive Michael O'Leary is the owner of Gigginstown House Stud who look set to be represented by the Willie Mullins-trained Un Atout, an as yet unbeaten five-year-old. By the French stallion Robin des Champs, whose progeny Mullins has excelled with in recent years with the likes of Quevega, Sir des Champs and Sous Les Cieux flying the flag, Un Atout first came onto the radar when making a winning racecourse debut at Naas last January, smashing his rivals by 24 lengths. He looked a good prospect when successful on his hurdles bow in December but improved markedly upon that next time, looking one of the best seen in the division as yet when again winning by a wide margin at Naas, jumping soundly in the main. He has created a big impression in a short space of time over hurdles and looks the one to beat in the Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown on February 9 and, were success to come just as easily there, his price for this contest could well shorten considerably. 

A likely rival in the Deloitte is Moscow Mannon, who enjoyed a profitable season in bumpers last term as he won three of the five he contested. His season ended with an excellent fourth-placed effort in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham, with conditions that day possibly just a shade too quick for him to be seen to full advantage as he was tapped for toe upon entering the straight, keeping on well but unable to get on terms with the principals. He looked the type to do well over hurdles and duly made a highly encouraging start at Navan after nine months off, beating The Paparrazi Kid by two and three-quarter lengths, and he strikes as being open to significant improvement. However, although yet to race beyond two miles the suspicion is that he will prove suited by two and a half and, with connections suggesting that were the ground to again come up on the quicker side he may run in the Neptune, he is difficult to recommend as an ante-post play for this.

Another to have made a taking start to life over hurdles is Jezki, who maintained his unbeaten record over timber with a six length defeat of Waaheb at Leopardstown over Christmas. He has progressed with each and every start in this sphere and at this stage is the leading contender on form for the Supreme, although that could change were Un Atout to set about demolishing his rivals in the Deloitte. The gripe I have with Jezki is price, the five-year-old presently trading at 4.94/1 which seems on the short side when compared with the next couple we must discuss. 

The way you view the price of the Nicky Henderson-trained My Tent Or Yours depends very much upon whether you think he will win the Betfair Hurdle as, were he to prove triumphant there, the 11.5n/a on offer for the Supreme would be snapped up instantly. His defeat of subsequent Grade 1 Challow Hurdle winner Taquin du Seuil at Ascot in November advertises his claims admirably and he could hardly have been more impressive at Huntingdon last time, though a mark of 149 for the Betfair looks stiff enough given that Darlan, who was at a similar stage in his career, was thought to face a difficult task off 146 in the same race last year. Were he to be beaten in the Betfair, not out of sight but by a few lengths, his price for the Supreme is likely to be fairly static so it is not worth risking him winning at Newbury and therefore being cut for Cheltenham. Advice: Back him for the Supreme prior to the Betfair Hurdle and hope that he hacks up there.

Currently trading at the same price as the aforementioned My Tent Or Yours is Puffin Billy, who has looked hugely exciting on the four occasions he has taken to the track so far. Two successful outings in bumpers led to his hurdling debut at Newbury, where he created an excellent impression in a race run at a ridiculously slow pace, but he posted a greater performance on the figures when running out a facile winner of a Grade 2 at Ascot. There is still room for improvement in his jumping and his target is as yet unconfirmed, as he could run in the Neptune if the ground were good, but he shows so much speed that he seems highly likely to cope with the demands of this race. In short, the Oliver Sherwood-trained five-year-old could make the 11.5n/a available at present look like an absolute gift come March 12. 

The main contenders we have now dealt with but it would be wrong were we not to mention a number of others that also have a chance. River Maigue couldn't have won any more easily than he did at Kempton over Christmas but, for all that he seems sure to go onto better things, he may just find one or two too good here. Similar sentiments go out to both New Year's Eve and Pique Sous, whilst Melodic Rendezvous' best form has come on heavy ground and he may not be suited by the usual Festival conditions. 

Dodging Bullets is a horse I have a bit of a soft spot for and it is easy to forget that he remains a novice; his fourth-placed effort in the Triumph last year was a highly creditable feat given it was just his second start over hurdles and he seemed unsuited by the steady pace in the Christmas Hurdle on his most recent start. However he trades at 14.013/1, just a few points bigger than Puffin Billy and My Tent Or Yours, and I know who I would rather be backing. 

"Which race will he go for?" is a well-worn phrase in Cheltenham ante-post betting, and we must utter it once more with regards to Puffin Billy. At the prices however he is just too big to ignore for this contest and we would be kicking ourselves were he to be sent off at closer to 5.04/1 on the day, so he is a must-have addition to our plays. The advice with My Tent Or Yours is to back him for this race before the Betfair Hurdle safe in the knowledge that there is nothing to lose but everything to gain as, were he to win he goes off considerably shorter at Cheltenham and were he to be beaten he goes off at around the same price. Perhaps we have found the opening winner of the Festival and we will feel incredible at about 13:35, just as the cash hits our palms, but the rest of the week is up to you. All the best. 

Recommendations:
Back Puffin Billy @ 11.5n/a
Back My Tent Or Yours @ 11.5n/a prior to the Betfair Hurdle

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

Timeform UK SmartPlays: Wednesday January 31

Venetia can keep firing in the winners

Timeform bring you three national hunt bets from today's meeting at Wincanton, which was given the green light earlier...

We don't have to wait long for our first bet as it comes in the opening race on the card in the form of Parsnip Pete. Tom George's seven-year-old was only a fair hurdler, but he has looked a different proposition since having his attentions turned to chasing, improving on his initial effort to score at Haydock and Newbury. He has been given a 9 lb rise in the weights since last seen in action, but the manner in which he travelled at Newbury marked him down as a progressive young chaser and he can complete the hat-trick of wins.

The following race presents us with another opportunity as we take the view that siding with the stable in form can lead us to financial gain. Ambion Wood is undoubtedly a horse with potential, showing smart form over hurdles and appealing as an exciting prospect in novice chases. However, his stable have had problems this year, shutting for a short period due to equine herpes, and they haven't really hit top gear yet. On the other hand, Tenor Nivernais hails from a Venetia Williams yard firing on all cylinders and has created a good impression over fences so far, achieving a level of form well in excess of what Ambion Wood managed on his seasonal reappearance at Exeter. Come the end of the season it would be little surprise were Ambion Wood to achieve the highest rating, but under today's conditions, considering the respective form of the stables, Tenor Nivernais has to rate as the bet.

It is a bit of a stretch to describe Michel le Bon, the lightly-raced ten-year-old trained by Paul Nicholls, as a veteran, but he has qualified for races of such nature and looks sure to take a great deal of beating in the 15:10. He actually faces a couple of rivals who are by no means past their best in Master Overseer and Pentiffic, but Michel le Bon's second in the Badger Ales over C&D in November sets a fair standard and a reproduction should ensure victory. He has since disappointed, but that came in the Welsh National and this race is obviously significantly less competitive than that marathon.

Timeform SmartPlays:
All at Wincanton

Back Parsnip Pete @ 3.211/5 in the 13:40 
Back Tenor Nivernais @ 2.285/4 in the 14:10
Back Michel le Bon @ 3.211/5 in the 15:10

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

Handicappers' Corner: The Trials of Oscar

Will Oscar Whisky (left) go for the World Hurdle at Cheltenham?

Timeform's Jumps Handicapper, Phil Turner, reflects on Cheltenham's Festival Trials Day and brings you the latest ratings updates.

Race-starved jumping fans were able to gorge on a bumper feast of top-notch action after Trials Day at Cheltenham beat the weather and, for once, they're unlikely to mind if such over-indulgence repeats on them come the Festival itself in March.

Indeed, it wouldn't be a surprise if several of Saturday's close finishes are played out again by the same protagonists (plus leading Irish raiders) in seven weeks time, though whether they'll finish in quite the same order is another matter.

Perhaps the biggest question still revolves around Oscar Whisky (Timeform rating h167), whose narrow defeat in the Cleeve Hurdle may have proved his stamina at three miles but wasn't enough to fully clear up lingering doubts about his likely participation at the Festival. With the Nicky Henderson stable likely to be mob-handed in the Champion Hurdle, it seems increasingly unlikely that Oscar Whisky will get the chance to try and improve upon his third place in the 2011 renewal of that race. Another tilt at the World Hurdle, therefore, could well be on the cards, though it is worth stressing that connections have repeatedly stated that a third win in the Aintree Hurdle is the main aim, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him miss Cheltenham altogether - which is reportedly the plan with Thousand Stars (h163), a close second to Oscar Whisky at Aintree in both 2011 and 2012.

Should the pull of the Cheltenham Festival prove too strong, however, then Oscar Whisky is well worth a chance to reverse placings with Cleeve winner Reve de Sivola (h162x), particularly if granted less extreme underfoot conditions and a less patient ride than was adopted on Saturday. That said, Reve de Sivola still deserves to be viewed as a major player in the World Hurdle, particularly as Saturday's win fully confirmed the form of his wide-margin success in last month's Long Walk Hurdle and maintained his unbeaten start under new jockey Richard Johnson.

Timeform's top-rated staying hurdlers:
176+ BIG BUCK'S 
167  OSCAR WHISKY
164+ QUEVEGA 
163  MONKSLAND 
163  THOUSAND STARS 
162x REVE DE SIVOLA 
162  BOG WARRIOR 
162  CELESTIAL HALO 
161+ SOLWHIT 
161  ZAIDPOUR 

Speaking of unbeaten records, there was a trio of up-and-coming novices bidding for a four-timer in the Grade 2 Classic Novices' Hurdle, so another grandstand finish was always likely to be on the cards. Coneygree (h142) was arguably unsuited by the drop back in trip and had cried enough on the long run to the last, largely due to an impressive injection of pace off the home turn by The New One (h151p). Alas, the latter probably paid for that move as he was unable to withstand a strong late rally by At Fishers Cross (h152p) and went down by a neck in the end. As the retention of a "p" on each of the first two would suggest, they remain very exciting prospects and seem set to head the home-trained challenge in the staying novice hurdles come the Festival.

It proved a heart-breaking afternoon for local trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies, as The New One's last-gasp defeat was a mirror image to that suffered by his 2010 Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander (c164?) in the Argento Chase just thirty-five minutes earlier. Rather like The New One, Imperial Commander shaped like the most likely winner for much of the way and clearly retains the bulk of his ability after nearly two years off, though the fact he ultimately failed to beat Cape Tribulation (c159+) when in receipt of 6 lb suggests he'll struggle to regain that Gold Cup crown now aged twelve - particularly as his past record suggests he may not come on for what ended up a hard race.

Another gelding with Gold Cup aspirations is the rapidly-improving Katenko (c157p), who followed up his recent impressive Sandown win with a wide-margin success in what had looked a competitive handicap beforehand. Admittedly, French import Katenko still has significant improvement to find if he's to mix it at Grade 1 level, but he's clearly a different proposition now under the care of Venetia Williams and is well worth a step-up in class.

The prize for easiest winner at Cheltenham on Saturday, however, can only go to one horse - Sprinter Sacre (c183p). In truth, his peerless display in the rescheduled Victor Chandler Chase told us nothing new and he didn't have to run right up to that lofty rating, but everything about the performance underlined his position as the best National Hunt horse currently in training. Although his tag as "jump racing's Frankel" may seem a lazy comparison, it's also a very accurate one and he should already be considered as one of the all-time greats even at this relatively early stage of his career.

Look out for the new features in Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

Follow The Money: Two backs and one lay at Kempton

To Kempton we go

All of today's Follow The Money bets run at Kempton...

Starting at 13:20 in the 1m Handicap Camachoice has been backed in to 3.814/5 from 6.05/1. The three-year-old colt makes his handicap debut today, and Jockey Adam Kirby has a 43% strike rate when riding for owner Giuliano Mafrendini. Relatively unexposed, the colt has ridden twice over this trip at Kempton finishing half way down the field on both occasions but has been backed to find the necessary improvement to win today.   

In the 14:20 6f Maiden Stakes Clock Opera has drifted out to 2.915/8 from 2.285/4. The 3yo filly sets the standard in this race but does not appear to be progressing and lost last time out over this course and distance as an 8-15 favourite. Having raced four times, she may be considered a little exposed and may be vulnerable to a potential improver, though it does look a relatively weak maiden race.

Finally, in the 16:20 Handicap over 1m3f, Brimstone Hill has been supported in to 4.94/1 from 7.413/2. The 4yo colt has kept his form reasonably well and has finished second twice in his last four starts, though jockey William Carson has ridden him ten times without a win. The money suggests that record may change.

Recommended Bets
Back Camachoice @ 3.814/5 Kempton 13:20
Lay Clock Opera 2.915/8 Kempton 14:20
Back Brimstone Hill 4.94/1 Kempton 16:20

Supreme Novices' Hurdle: Make a winning start to Cheltenham 2013

Puffin Billy (right) on his way to winning at Ascot.

As the countdown to Cheltenham begins to build up a head of steam, Timeform's Matt Gardner attempts to find the winner of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle...

The anticipation of what Cheltenham 2013 has to offer will at no stage, no matter how excited you are now, exceed the level at which it will be at around 13:28 on March 12. The Supreme Novices' Hurdle is the opening race of the meeting and accruing that extra bit of punting confidence by nailing the winner will do wonders for your finances throughout the week- at least that's what I thought as I celebrated the success of Cinders And Ashes last year. What it actually brought about was a run of dismal personal results, abated only slightly on the Thursday by the tiniest of wagers on Cape Tribulation, but by that time my wallet, and confidence, had already been well and truly decimated. 

Nevertheless the theory still stands that winners lead to more winners, the Midas touch, "I'm feeling lucky now", and all the other jargon that regularly gets wheeled out by someone who's just backed the victor, which heaps that bit of additional pressure upon our selection for this race. Where shall we begin in our quest for the winner? Well, seeing as the two at the head of the market are trained in Ireland we best cram ourselves onto a Ryanair flight across the Irish Sea. 

Speaking of Ryanair, Chief Executive Michael O'Leary is the owner of Gigginstown House Stud who look set to be represented by the Willie Mullins-trained Un Atout, an as yet unbeaten five-year-old. By the French stallion Robin des Champs, whose progeny Mullins has excelled with in recent years with the likes of Quevega, Sir des Champs and Sous Les Cieux flying the flag, Un Atout first came onto the radar when making a winning racecourse debut at Naas last January, smashing his rivals by 24 lengths. He looked a good prospect when successful on his hurdles bow in December but improved markedly upon that next time, looking one of the best seen in the division as yet when again winning by a wide margin at Naas, jumping soundly in the main. He has created a big impression in a short space of time over hurdles and looks the one to beat in the Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown on February 9 and, were success to come just as easily there, his price for this contest could well shorten considerably. 

A likely rival in the Deloitte is Moscow Mannon, who enjoyed a profitable season in bumpers last term as he won three of the five he contested. His season ended with an excellent fourth-placed effort in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham, with conditions that day possibly just a shade too quick for him to be seen to full advantage as he was tapped for toe upon entering the straight, keeping on well but unable to get on terms with the principals. He looked the type to do well over hurdles and duly made a highly encouraging start at Navan after nine months off, beating The Paparrazi Kid by two and three-quarter lengths, and he strikes as being open to significant improvement. However, although yet to race beyond two miles the suspicion is that he will prove suited by two and a half and, with connections suggesting that were the ground to again come up on the quicker side he may run in the Neptune, he is difficult to recommend as an ante-post play for this.

Another to have made a taking start to life over hurdles is Jezki, who maintained his unbeaten record over timber with a six length defeat of Waaheb at Leopardstown over Christmas. He has progressed with each and every start in this sphere and at this stage is the leading contender on form for the Supreme, although that could change were Un Atout to set about demolishing his rivals in the Deloitte. The gripe I have with Jezki is price, the five-year-old presently trading at 4.94/1 which seems on the short side when compared with the next couple we must discuss. 

The way you view the price of the Nicky Henderson-trained My Tent Or Yours depends very much upon whether you think he will win the Betfair Hurdle as, were he to prove triumphant there, the 11.5n/a on offer for the Supreme would be snapped up instantly. His defeat of subsequent Grade 1 Challow Hurdle winner Taquin du Seuil at Ascot in November advertises his claims admirably and he could hardly have been more impressive at Huntingdon last time, though a mark of 149 for the Betfair looks stiff enough given that Darlan, who was at a similar stage in his career, was thought to face a difficult task off 146 in the same race last year. Were he to be beaten in the Betfair, not out of sight but by a few lengths, his price for the Supreme is likely to be fairly static so it is not worth risking him winning at Newbury and therefore being cut for Cheltenham. Advice: Back him for the Supreme prior to the Betfair Hurdle and hope that he hacks up there.

Currently trading at the same price as the aforementioned My Tent Or Yours is Puffin Billy, who has looked hugely exciting on the four occasions he has taken to the track so far. Two successful outings in bumpers led to his hurdling debut at Newbury, where he created an excellent impression in a race run at a ridiculously slow pace, but he posted a greater performance on the figures when running out a facile winner of a Grade 2 at Ascot. There is still room for improvement in his jumping and his target is as yet unconfirmed, as he could run in the Neptune if the ground were good, but he shows so much speed that he seems highly likely to cope with the demands of this race. In short, the Oliver Sherwood-trained five-year-old could make the 11.5n/a available at present look like an absolute gift come March 12. 

The main contenders we have now dealt with but it would be wrong were we not to mention a number of others that also have a chance. River Maigue couldn't have won any more easily than he did at Kempton over Christmas but, for all that he seems sure to go onto better things, he may just find one or two too good here. Similar sentiments go out to both New Year's Eve and Pique Sous, whilst Melodic Rendezvous' best form has come on heavy ground and he may not be suited by the usual Festival conditions. 

Dodging Bullets is a horse I have a bit of a soft spot for and it is easy to forget that he remains a novice; his fourth-placed effort in the Triumph last year was a highly creditable feat given it was just his second start over hurdles and he seemed unsuited by the steady pace in the Christmas Hurdle on his most recent start. However he trades at 14.013/1, just a few points bigger than Puffin Billy and My Tent Or Yours, and I know who I would rather be backing. 

"Which race will he go for?" is a well-worn phrase in Cheltenham ante-post betting, and we must utter it once more with regards to Puffin Billy. At the prices however he is just too big to ignore for this contest and we would be kicking ourselves were he to be sent off at closer to 5.04/1 on the day, so he is a must-have addition to our plays. The advice with My Tent Or Yours is to back him for this race before the Betfair Hurdle safe in the knowledge that there is nothing to lose but everything to gain as, were he to win he goes off considerably shorter at Cheltenham and were he to be beaten he goes off at around the same price. Perhaps we have found the opening winner of the Festival and we will feel incredible at about 13:35, just as the cash hits our palms, but the rest of the week is up to you. All the best. 

Recommendations:
Back Puffin Billy @ 11.5n/a
Back My Tent Or Yours @ 11.5n/a prior to the Betfair Hurdle

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

Andrew Robl Wins the $100,000 Challenge at the 2013 Aussie Millions

Andrew Robl (Image: PokerNews.com)

Andrew Robl has won the $100,000 Challenge at the 2013 Aussie Millions, besting a 21-player field to scoop the $1,000,000 first place prize.

This years $100,000 challenge saw 21 players buy in, but after Robl busted out during Day 1, he re-entered taking the number of entries to 22 and the prize pool to an impressive $2,200,000. This huge sum of money was shared out among the top four finishers, meaning three of the players who reached the final table went home empty handed.

The final table should have been the home to eight hopefuls, but the double elimination of Chris "Genius28" Lee and Winfred Yu - at the hands of Igor Kurganov - meant the final table started with one players less than anticipated. When the finale got under way, the players lined up as follows:

Seat 1: Dan Shak - 435,000
Seat 2: Vanessa Selbst - 136,000
Seat 3: Igor Kurganov - 563,000
Seat 4: Masa Kagawa - 695,000
Seat 5: Tobias Reinkemeier - 160,000
Seat 6: Andrew Robl - 129,000
Seat 7: Niklas Heinecker - 85,000

First to exit the final table was Tobias Reinkemeier, around 20-minutes into play. Vanessa Selbst opened to 16,000 in the hijack, Reinkemeier three-bet to 63,000 in the small blind and Robl four-bet all-in from the big blind for 123,000. Selbst folded but Reinkemeier called off his last 115,000 chips and the cards were revealed.

Robl showed As-Qh and was nicely in front of Reinkemeier's dominated Kc-Qc. Reinkemeier's day got a whole lot worse when the flop came down 7d-Ah-2d. The 7c turn left Reinkemeier drawing dead and he left the tournament area as the 2s landed on the river to bust him out.

Sixth place went to the dangerous Selbst, after an ill-timed play against Masa Kagawa went horribly wrong. With blinds at 5,000/10,000/1,000a, Kagawa opened to 20,000, Robl flat-called in the cutoff and Selbst called in the big blind. The trio shared a Qd-8s-3d flop, a flop that Selbst initially checked, Kagawa made a continuation bet of 36,000 on and Robl folded. With Robl out of the way, Selbst check-raised all-in to 79,000. Kagawa paused, took a drink from his freshly ordered hot chocolate and called with Qs-Js. His call was correct as Selbst held 9s-8d for middle pair, and when the turn and river were the 7c and Js respectively, Selbst was sent to the rail.

Selbst's demise brought about the money bubble, the difference between not cashing and reaching the money place being a staggering $237,000. The man who had to endure the pain of not cashing was Niklas Heinecker, a German online poker specialist. Heinecker had been nursing a short stack since the start of the day and he got this into the middle against Kagawa -albeit in unusual circumstances.

Heinecker opened to 40,000 from under the gun and then called when Kagawa three-bet to 70,000. Heinecker's call left him just 24,000 chips behind and they went in on a Kd-Js-8s flop. Many say Heinecker should have just pushed all-in preflop with his Tc-9c, but the result would have been the same as Kagawa held Ad-Qs and would have called. The turn and river missed both players, and Kagawa's ace-high was enough to eliminate Heineker and burst the bubble.

Dan Shak was the first player to be awarded prize money, something he has done in this tournament for three years out of the past four. Shak was knocked out of the tournament when he saw Robl open-limp the button for 16,000 chips and Shak decided to raise to 72,000. Robl called and then saw Shak lead out for 155,000 on a Kd-9c-3c flop. Robl moved all-in and Shak called off his last 144,000 chips with what turned out to be Jd-10d. Robl was ahead with his Ks-5s and when the turn and river were the 2s and 10c respectively, Shak was eliminated in fourth place.

Another limped pot claimed a scalp when Kagawa completed in the small blind and Robl checked his option to be in the big blind. The 10h-7s-8d flop was greeted with a 338,000 all-in bet from Kagawa and, after a minute of thought, a call from Robl. Kagawa's Kh-10c was the best hand when the chips went into the middle as Robl held Jd-10s, but the 9c on the turn improved Robl to a straight and left Kagawa drawing to a chop. The 6d on the river was a bank and Kagaw's tournament had come to an abrupt end.

Kagawa's exit left Robl to take on Kurganov heads-up for the title. Robl held a gigantic 10-to-1 chip lead over his opponents, and despite doubling up early on in the match, Kurganov just could not close the gap enough. The final hand saw a real cooler of hand take place. The board read 9c-4c-2h-3d and Robl bet 60,000. Kurganov raised to 190,000 then called when Robl set him all-in. Kurganov revealed 4d-3s for two pair, but Robl's run-good continued as he showed As-5c for a straight. The Qs river failed to change either player's hand, and Kurganov was busted out in second place, leaving Robl to be crowned champion.

$100,000 Challenge Final Table Results

1st Andrew Robl - $1,000,000
2nd Igor Kurganov - $610,000
3rd Masa Kagawa - $320,000
4th Dan Shak - $237,000

Join Betfair Poker Now

Lee Dixon: Revitalised Sunderland to edge a tight one against Swansea

Martin O'Neill has his Black Cats winning games currently

Martin O'Neill has Sunderland in fine fettle and Lee Dixon is backing them to sneak past a Swansea side whose game may have dropped a level after recent highs...

Sunderland are undergoing a remarkable turnaround under Martin O'Neill and I fancy their good form will continue at the expense of Swansea on Tuesday night. 

The visitors are having an absolutely stonking year under Michael Laudrup but I just sense that a big couple of weeks will take its toll and the Black Cats can capitalise on that. 

Opta tell us that Sunderland have won five of their last eight Premier League games, having only triumphed in four of the previous 29. That's good form and it could just be that Martin O'Neill has his team primed for a strong finish to the season at the Stadium of Light. 

O'Neill had been touted as a candidate for the managerial position at the big clubs after good spells at Leicester, Celtic and Aston Villa, but his chance has probably gone now. The northern Irishman can be an inspirationaI figure - he is unique, a bit off the wall, but he has shown the midas touch throughout his career. I certainly think he can do good things at Sunderland and I wouldn't be backing against a good finish to the season for the Wearsiders.

Whatever happens over the closing months, this will go down as a phenomenal year for Swansea and it's no surprise to see them trading as short as 3.1511/5 for the win. 

Four victories and three draws from 11 games shows the Swans are no pushover on the road and their miserly defence has conceded just nine times during that run. Unfortunately, the attack doesn't exactly fire away from home with just 12 goals registered and I suspect this will be a low-scoring match. 

The Betfair market fancies under 2.5 goals ahead of overs but not quite as much as I expected and I'm happy to back it at 1.865/6.

So, neither team is likely to score a hatful then, and with two good defences on show it would be no surprise were this to be level at halftime. I fancy Sunderland to nick it in the second half, but instead of the straightforward Sunderland win I will play bigger odds with a back of halftime/Sunderland at 6.411/2. 

Swansea have wowed us in the opening half of the season, perhaps Sunderland will shine in the final few months. 

Recommended Bets 
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.865/6 
Back draw/Sunderland HT/FT @ 6.411/2 

FA Cup on Betfair: Fifth Round draw throws up just one all-Premier League tie

Brendan Rodgers saw his team dumped out of the FA Cup by Oldham Athletic

The draw for the FA Cup Fifth Round has been made and features just one all-Premier League tie. But how has the draw affected the betting?

After a rip-roaring weekend of FA Cup action across the country, no fewer than six Premier League teams were knocked out, and four of those to lower league opposition.

The two biggest shocks of the weekend were undoubtedly to be found at Carrow Road and Boundary Park as non-league Luton Town overcame Chris Hughton's Norwich 0-1 and Oldham Athletic welcomed Liverpool to their home ground and promptly dished out a hugely physical 3-2 beating. Luton, who are now a longshot at 600599/1 to win the Cup have been rewarded with a home tie against Millwall 110109/1.

Oldham, who are still available at 500499/1, welcome the other big team from Merseyside in the next round in the shape of David Moyes' Everton themselves an 8.615/2 shot. Everton could provide real value here, it's easy to see them going reasonably far in the competition if they can avoid a tough away draw.

Elsewhere, Arsenal have come right in to 76/1 after their hard-fought win at Brighton. They have an easy-looking home tie against a struggling Blackburn in the next round, whereas Wigan 6059/1 face a potential banana skin travelling to either Huddersfield or Leicester.

The market clearly feels that the cup will go to one of the Manchester clubs though. There's not much between them in terms of price, with United available at 3.9n/a and City only slightly shorter at 3.8514/5. They face Reading at home and Leeds at home respectively.

FA Cup Fifth Round draw:

Huddersfield/Leicester v Wigan
MK Dons v Barnsley
Oldham v Everton
Luton v Millwall
Arsenal v Blackburn
Manchester City v Leeds
Manchester United v Reading
Middlesbrough v Brentford/Chelsea

PDC World Cup of Darts Betting: Aussies to go one better

Australia can go one better than last year's runner-up finish at the World Cup of Darts.

Following a few weeks break the PDC boys are back for the Betfair World Cup of Darts, Jaymes Monte previews the event...

Outright Winner

12 months ago England justified favouritism by winning the PDC World Cup of Darts with relatively few dramas along the way, a year on from suffering an embarrassing early exit at the hands of Spain.

Phil Taylor and Adrian Lewis are made the 2.427/5 favourites to defend their title, but only just. Netherlands, represented by Raymond van Barneveld and, for the first time, Michael van Gerwen are only marginally bigger at 2.546/4. It's hardly surprising that these two nations should dominate the betting given that the four players constituted the semi-final line-up at Alexandra Palace just weeks ago. Seeded 1 and 2, there's every chance that they could meet in the final.

But that isn't to say that they necessarily offer the value bet here. In fact I'd argue to the contrary and say that neither should be backed at such short odds. This format has a habit of throwing up shock results.

Instead, it may be worth siding with third favourites Australia at odds of 8.415/2. This will be the third successive World Cup in which Simon Whitlock and Paul Nicholson have been paired together - something that no other top nation can boast - and they seem to have a good camaraderie going between them; an important asset in this format of the game.

In the last two tournaments they've lost in sudden death legs at the business end of proceedings - in the semi-finals to Wales in 2010 and in the final against England last year. While they've also been handed a comfortable draw in both the group stages and potential quarter-finals.

Australia are my outright pick to win this year's Betfair World Cup of Darts.

Group Stages

Naturally you'd expect the seeded nations to be made favourites to top their groups. And they are in all but Group H, where Belgian brothers Kim and Ronny Huybrechts are fancied to topple Northern Ireland (number 6 seed) and Hungary.

We know all bout Kim's qualities as a darts player, and Ronny has just recently won a two-year PDC tour card at Q-School, so will come here in buoyant mood. Nevertheless, I'm not sure they should be as short as 1.664/6 to topple seasoned pros such as Brendan Dolan and Michael Mansell and they have to be worth a tentative lay at the odds.

One unseeded nation who are worth having on side is South Africa. Their team won't include the familiar face of Devon Petersen after he was forced to take some time out of the game due to an arm injury, but the more-than-able Charl Pietersen will replace him. Pietersen recently won his tour card thanks in no small part to a nine-darter in his final against Kevin McDine on day one of Q-school.

Last year South Africa beat Scotland and Spain to reach the quarter-finals, in what was their debut in the event. This time around they've been pitted against probably the weakest of the seeds in Ireland's Willie O'Connor and Connie Finnan, and at odds of 2.6413/8 to progress to the knockout stages I fancy their chances.

Recommended Bets

Back Australia to win World Cup @ 8.415/2
Lay Belgium to win Group H @ 1.664/6
Back South Africa to win Group B @ 2.6413/8

Wincanton Placepot: Thursday January 31

Today's Placepot comes from Wincanton

Wincanton is certainly the higher-quality of today's two jumps fixtures and it's there we're heading for the Placepot.

13:40 - Bury Parade probably has the greatest potential of these, but after such a disappointing debut for Paul Nicholls last time he makes limited appeal for our perm. Parsnip Pete has no such doubts, a winner of his last two starts back in the autumn and looking a quick learner in terms of his jumping, so he's in. Joining him is Saved By John, who isn't quite bombproof (may prove best over further) but is likely to take up a prominent position and showed himself to be in good form when finishing a clear second at Chepstow last time.

14:10 - Neither of the pair that look to dominate this novice (Ambion Wood and Tenor Nivernais) is wholly reliable, the former from the recovering Victor Dartnall yard and the latter simply untrustworthy. Therefore, where a banker on one or the other might have sufficed, we're going to have to include both to be sure of making it to leg three.

14:40 - So stark has been Ballyallia Man's progress in recent weeks, and so impressive his victory over C&D a fortnight ago, that he's impossible to leave out even though he's favourite and 12 lb higher than last time. All other things being equal, we might have included Milarrow, who will surely benefit for this step up in trip, but this leg looks our best option for a banker with eight still entered at the time of writing, so we'll stick with Ballyallia Man on his own.

15:10 - It feels strange to apply the term 'veteran' to the lightly-raced Michel Le Bon, but it's an even confined to such horses that he finds himself in today and, on account of him being relatively unexposed, he's our lead selection. He was runner-up in the Badger Ales Trophy over this C&D back in November and was let down by his jumping more than anything else on his only subsequent start.

Second spot goes to the reformed Desperate Dex, who has remained in good form for all he's been unable to keep up his recent winning streak with second-placed finishes on his last two starts. Neither jumping nor stamina is an issue for Desperate Dex, both assets in fact these days, so he's likely to do himself justice again today.

15:40 - On old form, Vic Venturi would clearly take a lot of beating, though his point form for his new yard is hardly inspiring, so we can take him on. Having much better recent form in the pointing field is Kirkleigh, winner of an Exeter hunter last spring, which is enough to warrant inclusion in this race. The consistent Coombe Hill is as solid a second option as we're likely to get, while a recent run in points should have put him spot on for this first start in hunters for 2013.

16:10 - The eye is instantly drawn to Flying Award in this closing leg, his recent form in similar events on testing ground marking him down as one to keep on the right side of, at least where Placepot betting is concerned. We might have been tempted to bank on him had eight still been in the race, but with one now out we're forced to call in reinforcements. We don't have to look far, as Pericoloso, runner-up to Flying Award at Exeter on New Year's Day, is going the right way and still has room for improvement granted a real test of stamina, something he should get today.

Selections:
13:40 - 2, 5
14:10 - 1, 2
14:40 - 3
15:10 - 1, 9
15:40 - 1, 4
16:10 - 3, 5
= 32 lines

Did you know that you can bet on the Tote from your Betfair account? Click here for our Tote gateway. 

Premier League Betting: West Ham to enjoy Fulham trip

Craven Cottage has been a fruitful destination for West Ham

Assisted by Opta, Christian Crowther provides tips for Wednesday's five non-televised Premier League tussles...

Everton v West Brom, Wednesday 19:45, Match odds: Everton 1.625/8, West Brom 6.611/2, The Draw 4.1n/a 
As Opta inform us, this particular match does not produce draws too often as just one of their previous 13 Premier League meetings has ended all square, with Everton winning seven and West Brom securing five wins. With only one loss at home all season, you'd have to fancy the Toffees against the out-of-form Baggies. Steve Clarke's side are winless in their last four league matches as they visit Merseyside. 
Recommended Bet: Back Everton to win @ 1.625/8

Norwich v Tottenham, Wednesday 19:45, Match odds: Norwich 4.84/1, Tottenham 1.855/6, The Draw 3.8514/5
Norwich rank bottom of the Premier League form table, having succumbed to five losses and a draw from their last six matches, facilitating a subsequent slide down the table. As Opta tell us, the Canaries' chances of redemption against in-form Tottenham are slim, especially as Spurs arrive replete with Gareth Bale who has already matched his goal tally of nine from last season with seven of those coming on the road.
Recommended Bet: Back Gareth Bale to score @ 3.02/1

Fulham v West Ham, Wednesday 20:00, Match odds: Fulham 2.285/4, West Ham 3.55/2, The Draw 3.55/2
If there was one fixture likely to transform West Ham's dismal away form then it's a trip across the capital to Fulham's gentile surroundings. As Opta reveal, the Hammers relish visiting Craven Cottage, with only fellow Londoners Arsenal bettering their six Premier League victories there. Furthermore, the Whites have failed to find the net in four of their last eight home games against the Irons.
Recommended Bet: Back West Ham to win @ 3.55/2 

Manchester United v Southampton, Wednesday 20:00, Match odds: Manchester United 1.251/4, Southampton 14.5n/a, The Draw 7.413/2
Like most visitors to Old Trafford, Southampton could be in for a rough evening when they make the long trip north. As Opta tell us, United's home record against the Saints is formidable, with the Red Devils only dropping two points in 13 previous Premier League tussles at the Theatre of Dreams. What's more, the league's most free-scoring side have not taken it easy on Southampton in the past; having scored at least twice in eight of their last nine Premier League meetings, including a hat-trick for Robin Van Persie in the reverse fixture this term.   
Recommended Bet: Back RVP to score two or more goals @ 3.953/1

Reading v Chelsea, Wednesday 20:00, Match odds: Reading 7.413/2, Chelsea 1.528/15, The Draw 4.77/2
As Opta point out, in-form Reading tested Chelsea's resolve at Stamford Bridge earlier in the season, leading until the 69th minute until succumbing to three late goals. Chelsea started the proceedings with a Frank Lampard penalty that day, the second of a season-high eight spot kicks to date in 2012/13 for the Blues. With Mark Halsey - who has awarded the second highest amount of top-flight penalties this season - refereeing at the Madejski Stadium, the chances of another one are heightened here.
Recommended Bet: Back there to be a penalty taken @ 3.39/4