Odds suggest Froch will repeat his victory over Groves

Odds suggest Froch will repeat his victory over Groves

By Calum Ward Apr 28, 2014

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Carl Froch is the favourite to repeat his victory over George Groves when the pair go toe-to-toe inside Wembley Stadium on May 31st.  With bad blood remaining from their first fight in November 2013, this Froch vs. Groves II betting preview explains how the bettor can find value in boxing rematches through loss aversion, odds movement and the under/over rounds market.

Froch vs. Groves statistics

Carl Froch

Name

George Groves

“The Cobra”

Nickname

“Saint”

36

Age

26

Nottingham, UK

Birthplace

London, UK

6ft 1″ (1.85m)

Height

6ft 0″ (1.82m)

74 ” (189cm)

Reach

71.1″ (182cm)

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

32-0-2 (23 wins by KO)

Career Record

19-0-1 (15 wins by KO)

What can the first fight tell us?

Froch 1.575* and Groves 2.540* engaged in a fierce war of words throughout the build-up to their epic clash in November 2013, where Froch retained his WBA and IBF super-middleweight titles after a controversial stoppage by referee Howard Foster in the ninth round.

Groves, the bookmakers’ underdog, had unexpectedly floored Froch in the opening round and was ahead on all three judges’ scorecards going into the ninth (78-73, 76-75 and 76-75), before Froch was awarded the contentious victory. Since then, the two British fighters’ bitter rivalry has intensified further, and although the rematch in May is expected to put their bitter feud to an end, bettors consider how much Froch and Groves learnt about each other from their previous fight.

Loss aversion

In our betting preview before the April 2014 rematch between Manny Pacquiao and Timothy Bradley, we looked at how psychology and in particular regression, can influence the outcome of a boxing rematch. Loss aversion is another feature of rematch psychology, and has particular relevance to Froch vs. Groves II.

Having won the first fight, bettors must now decide how difficult it will be for Froch to remain the aggressor and retain his initiative following a debatable victory. With pride at stake, will the Champion be looking to avoid a knockout defeat and thereby change his boxing style? Arguably there is more to lose from defeat, than there is to gain from victory.  What’s more, Groves is certainly being considered a greater threat to Froch’s Championship belts this time around, with Pinnacle Sports’ odds closing at 6.200 before Froch vs. Groves I, to the current 2.540* offering before Froch vs. Groves II.

Odds movement 

The final press conference and the weigh-in is the last opportunity that both the media and the public have to see the boxers ahead of their upcoming fight. For the bettor, it is also an opportunity to make a decision on which boxer they think will win and place their bets accordingly. Here’s why:

Fight

Opening Odds Fighter 1

Opening Odds Fighter 2

Closing Odds Fighter 1

Closing Odds Fighter 2

Odds Increase Fighter 1

Odds Increase Fighter 2

Froch Kessler I

3.270

1.275

3.360

1.346

2.75%

5.57%

Froch Kessler II

1.515

3.970

1.632

4.410

7.72%

11.08%

Froch Groves I

1.750

5.650

1.810

6.200

3.43%

18.09%

Pinnacle Sports opened their lines before Froch-Kessler I at Froch 3.270 and Kessler 1.275. The lines closed before the fight at Froch 3.360 (2.75% rise) and Kessler 1.346 (5.57% rise). Similarly, with reference to Froch-Kessler II, the odds increased by 7.72% for Froch.

Focusing more specifically to the upcoming rematch, Froch-Groves I opened with Froch at 1.750 and Groves at 5.250. Following the final press conference on November 22nd (the day before the fight), Froch closed at 1.810 (0.06% rise) and Groves at 6.200 (18.09% rise).

With Groves opening as the underdog again, and the lines susceptible to movement, bettors could make an increased profit by backing their winner after the final press conference.

Could it go the distance this time? 

Froch vs. Groves betting will also be available via the over/under market for total rounds. This is a really interesting market for bettors as the previous bout between the two ended in the ninth round.

 

Froch is the more experienced fighter over 12 rounds, having competed in 23, compared to Groves who has fought in just six fights scheduled for 12 rounds. When selecting from the over/under 9.5 rounds market, bettors should be aware that Froch has won 61% (14 of 23) of these 12 round fights by knockout. Although Groves posts similar stats, winning 67% of his fights by knockout (4 of 6), Froch’s experience could prove decisive.

What happens when Groves and Froch go all 12 rounds? Froch is 6-2 (lost vs. Mikkel Kessler and Andre Ward) whilst Groves is 2-0 (wins vs. James DeGale and Glen Johnson).  This would suggest that both Froch and Groves prefer the early finish, due to their aggressive boxing styles.

With the odds suggesting another close fight, bettors should consider – in addition to statistics and records – the impact of factors such as loss aversion and odds movement before selecting the winner of Froch vs. Groves II.

Click here to see the latest Froch vs. Groves II boxing odds.

*Odds subject to change

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