The Freak vs. the Streak

The Freak vs. the Streak

By Gary Wise Apr 22, 2014

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On April 26th, Jon “Bones” Jones defends his UFC Light-Heavyweight title against Glover Teixeira. Below, we take a look at factors you’ll want to consider when preparing to bet on Jones vs. Teixeira at UFC 172.

Who is Glover Teixeira?

Jon Jones’ title reign has almost exclusively featured big name opponents, many of who have held the UFC LHW title prior to his reign. Shogun Rua, Rampage Jackson, Vitor Belfort, Rashad Evans…it’s a rogues gallery of the UFC hype machine. That Glover Teixeira doesn’t fit that mold is intriguing and should have MMA bettors scrambling for information.

In short, after the UFC’s purchase of Strikeforce, Teixeira was universally considered the best LHW to have not joined UFC. After prolonged visa issues, he finally made it to the organization midway through 2012 and promptly swathed a path through the competition. In five fights, he’s notched five wins–two by knockout, two by submission—averaging just over six minutes per fight. The legitimacy of his contender status is unquestionable, but what makes it fun is that the question marks persist where Jones’ previous opponents came pre-packaged.

What’s in a streak?

Teixeira 5.100* stands out as a contender in large part because of the 20-win streak he brings into the Jones match. There are real questions though about whether the streak is a viable means to measure his quality, especially when the quality of his pre-UFC opposition was…questionable. To get a better grasp, we had our lead MMA trader weigh in: “I don’t think it means much. Glover has some confidence from the win streak, sure, but I don’t see much there in terms of momentum.”

In short, having beaten fighters of a lesser caliber doesn’t matter much when you’re being paired up with Jon Jones.

Is Jones slowing down?

When Jones 1.207* was ascending to the title and in his first few defenses, he was finishing off opponents in ways that had never been seen. He demolished Shogun Rua on the mat, dismantled Rampage Jackson with his striking and then finished Lyoto Machida with a standing choke, the likes of which had never been seen in the UFC. All three fighters were former LHW champions.

While Jones’ more recent fights have mostly been one-sided victories, there have been some chinks in the armor. Rashad Evans was the first to take him to the judges cards in nine fights; Vitor Belfort came close to submitting Jones in the first round; and some observers had Alexander Gustafsson beating Jones on points, even if the judges didn’t. Is Jones slowing down? Again, we hear from our lead MMA trader:

“For me, the only fight he didn’t dominate was against Gustafsson. Gustafsson is an inch taller and Jones only had a 5.5 inch reach advantage (normally 10 inches or more), so it was an unusual set of circumstances. Jones is not slowing down. He knows how to use his height and reach advantage, giving him a huge edge in most fights. Also, he’s not a conventional fighter; he comes at you from weird angles and except for the Gustafsson fight, he won’t just stay in the pocket and trade punches. He really understands the concept of ring control”

That all makes him incredibly difficult to train for.

While the Gustafsson fight gives pause, the perception for most is that what we’re seeing with Jones isn’t about slowing down so much as protecting his interests. Georges St. Pierre, a similarly dominant fighter, had a number of knockouts and submissions before the start of his title reign; in the nine fights since he won the title for good, St Pierre won via decision eight times (the ninth was via stoppage when BJ Penn opted not to come out for a fifth round). He’s averaged $12 million in earnings per year.

Jones has Nike sponsorship amongst others and a champion’s contract and has everything to lose through flashy, higher risk maneuvers. What we’re seeing is a smarter, safer Jones who is eliminating variance with a style that uses control seldom seen in the ring.  That’s a good thing for those who are betting on him.

What will we see?

While Gustafsson’s height and reach made him a unique challenge for Jones, it’s possible he’s set the template for a fighter like Teixeira. Glover is more of a brawler than Gustafsson (landing 5.6 strikes per minute to Gustafsson’s 4.1), and may therefore want to take a more direct line towards Jones, understanding the Jones knows the threat of a takedown looks with Glover, who has averaged 3.9 takedowns per 15 minutes with 63% takedown accuracy.

Jones himself likely won’t have much incentive to go for a takedown against Teixeira, who has six wins by submission, and has only been successfully taken down one time in 25 attempts by opponents over his career. Teixeira himself has never suffered a takedown, though he’s never faced someone with Jones’ wrestling ability. This all adds up to the likelihood that the fight will stay on the feet. If it does and Glover stays as aggressive as we’ve seen him be, we could be looking a war.

Click here for the latest UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira odds.

*Odds subject to change

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