Odds suggest Pacquiao will avenge his defeat to Bradley

Odds suggest Pacquiao will avenge his defeat to Bradley

By Calum Ward Apr 9, 2014

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Manny Pacquiao is the favourite to avenge his 2012 defeat to Timothy Bradley as the two go toe-to-toe inside the MGM Grand Arena in a rematch on April 12th. With bad blood remaining from their first fight, this Pacquiao vs. Bradley boxing betting preview looks at the impact psychology can have before rematches and highlights the key statistics you should be aware of before placing your bets.

Pacquiao vs. Bradley statistics

Manny Pacquiao

Name

Timothy Bradley

“Pac-Man”

Nickname

“Desert Storm”

35

Age

30

Kibawe, Philippines

Birthplace

California, USA

5ft 6” (1.69)

Height

5ft 6″ (1.68m)

67″ (170cm)

Reach

69″ (175cm)

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

55-2-5 (38 wins by KO)

Career Record

31-0-0 (12 wins by KO)

What we learnt from the first fight?

The first fight between the two pugilists ended in controversy with Bradley awarded a split-decision victory over Pacquiao despite many believing the “Pac-man” did more than enough to win – the WBO went as far as to ask five independent judges to review footage of the bout, all of whom scored the fight in favour of Pacquiao.

In addition, according to the Associated Press, Pacquiao landed 253 punches to Bradley’s 159, and 52 out of 55 unofficial score cards had Pacquiao down as the winner.  Despite this, Bradley became the new WBO Welterweight Champion, which meant the announcement of their April rematch makes this one of the most anticipated fights in recent boxing history.

Boxing rematches

This will be the first rematch of Bradley’s career, but what can bettors learn from Pacquiao’s previous rematches?

Manny Pacquiao vs Juan Manuel Marquez III and IV

Fight III

Closing Odds

Winner

Fight IV

Closing Odds

Winner

13th November 2011

Pacquiao 1.895; Marquez 9.910

Pacquiao

8 December 2012

Pacquiao 1.597; Marquez 4.210

Marquez

In Pacquiao’s latest fights with Juan Manuel Marquez (Pacquiao-Marquez III and Pacquiao-Marquez IV),  “Pac-man” was the closing favourite.  Although Marquez lost the third fight in November 2011, he unexpectedly defeated Pacquiao with the “knockout of the year” in their rematch 13 months later, giving underdog bettors a 321 profit for a 100 bet.

This pattern also occurred when Erik Morales beat Pacquiao in March 2005, only for Pacquiao to knock “El Terrible” out for the first time of his career in their rematch a year later.

So why is it that the loser of the first fight can go on to win the second?

Rematch psychology

The ability to bounce back from a sporting defeat is known as ‘mental toughness;’ and is essentially the characteristic that distinguishes successful athletes, especially in individual sports. Focusing attention solely on the upcoming fight is crucial for success in boxing, particularly when the athlete is required to disconnect the negative emotions that may have arisen from their previous defeat.

Pacquiao was the 1.200 favourite for the first fight, while odds of 4.000 for were offered on Bradley. Interestingly despite defeat in that contest, Pacquiao is still the favourite for April’s rematch with odds currently being offered at 1.474* on Pacquiao and 2.810* on Bradley – which suggests the bookmaker has taken into account the controversy from the first fight as Pacquiao is still the favourite despite officially losing.

However, gaining revenge is simply one aspect involved in rematch psychology. Another is motivation. Which fighter is more motivated in the rematch? At 35 Pacquiao is the older boxer, and having lost two of his three previous fights – and with talk of him retiring if he loses – the desire to cement his legacy may give him the motivation he needs. In comparison, Bradley is undefeated and will want to maintain his pristine 31-0 record – and silence the doubters who claim the first fight result was a sham.

Regression to the mean 

Fight

Winner

Result

Pacquiao-Marquez I

Draw

Draw

Pacquiao-Marquez II

Pacquiao

Split Decision

Pacquiao-Marquez III

Pacquiao

Majority Decision

Pacquiao-Marquez IV

Marquez

KO Round 6 of 12

Pacquiao-Barrera I

Pacquiao

TKO Round 11 of 12

Pacquiao-Barrera II

Pacquiao

Unanimous Decision

Pacquiao-Morales I

Morales

Unanimous Decision

Pacquiao-Morales II

Pacquiao

TKO Round 10 of 12

Pacquiao-Morales III

Pacquiao

KO Round 3 of 12

Is it really a major surprise when a rematch between two closely matched fighters produces a different result to the other bout or bouts? For instance if two boxers who are equal in ability fought 10 times, you would expect on average both to win 5 – it would be highly unlikely that one would win all 10. Fortunately for bettors, this regression to the mean creates value in the odds. Bettors must take into account the role of luck in any boxing match – which can come in the way of poor or biased judging results, bad refereeing decisions or a flash knockdown.

Under this theory, even though Pacquiao was 1.200 – an 83.3% chance of winning – favourite before Pacquiao-Bradley I, he would still be expected to lose one fight in three.  Therefore, market value is created with Pacquiao opening as the 1.474* (67.84% chance of winning) favourite for the second fight despite losing the first encounter, and Bradley opening at 2.810* – (35.59%) – despite being undefeated throughout his entire career.

Could it go the distance again?

Pacquiao vs Bradley betting is also available via the over/under market for total rounds. This is an interesting market as the previous bout between the two went to the judges’ scorecards.  Odds of 1.290* suggest the fight will go over 9.5 rounds again, while 3.850* is available if you want to bet on the fight ending in under 9.5 rounds.

 

By looking at each of the boxers’ records scheduled for 12 rounds, Pacquiao has won 63% of his fights by knockout (24 of 38), compared to just 22% for Bradley (2 of 9).

However, Bradley has a record of 7-0 in fights that have gone the distance, including his split-decision victory over Pacquiao last time.  This would suggest that when backing Pacquiao to win, it is likely he will secure victory by knockout in fewer than 9.5 rounds, as he has favored the early finish in 83% of his fights. And when betting on Bradley to win, it is likely to occur in over 9.5 rounds, as per 78% of his fights.

With the odds suggesting another close fight, bettors should consider – in addition to statistics and records – the impact of factors such as rematch psychology, regression to the mean and motivation before selecting the winner of Pacquiao vs. Bradley II.

Click here to see the latest Pacquiao vs. Bradley II boxing odds.

*Odds subject to change

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