Lead NBA Trader reflects on the Western Conference

Lead NBA Trader reflects on the Western Conference

By Pinnacle Sports Apr 1, 2014

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The 2014 NBA playoffs begin on April 19th, offering opportunities for profitable betting that come with conditions that separate playoff markets from regular season ones. Below, our lead NBA trader shares some thoughts on playoff betting and how the Western Conference shapes up in the first installment of our two-part 2014 NBA playoffs betting preview.

Is recent domination or revenge a factor?

Recent domination by one team over another may be relevant for series where the main players were there for the team getting beaten (discounting injuries), if you can find a logical reason why the pairing may deserve to be one-sided given specific player/style match-up issues.

Revenge motivation for prior playoff meetings might be worth a little, but bettors should always examine what changes may have been made in the meantime, including current injuries, etc. Oklahoma City beat Houston in the 2013 playoffs, but that Houston team didn’t include Dwight Howard, while Oklahoma City had to deal with the injury of Russell Westbrook in game two of that series. Expecting the same result without accounting for roster changes isn’t advised.

The importance of referees

While bettors can state games here and there in which a ref or even a crew seem biased, since the Donaghy scandal many years ago, the officials have performed well overall, even if they have the odd poor performance.  The referees chosen for the playoffs are the best, and its unlikely much can be made of regular season tendencies they may have tallied.

If Miami especially or perhaps San Antonio or Oklahoma City are in an elimination game, including a Game 7 vs. a team outside that group, you can count on the officials to swallow their whistles more than usual.  If the other team isn’t that physical, and/or new to the pressure of advancing past a better opponent, it rates to be tougher on them in those spots due to the “play on” atmosphere.

There isn’t a league bias like it seemed back in some of the early Laker runs with Phil Jackson. A particular Game 6 at Sacramento comes to mind. Not saying that the Heat don’t seem to get breaks; just not constantly.

Western Conference Teams

We asked our NBA trader for his thoughts on the teams that appear to be playoff bound.

San Antonio Spurs: On a major run and appear destined to position them as the #1 seed in the league.  Perhaps most importantly, their key pieces are healthy.

Oklahoma Thunder: Kevin Durant hopes to stop the Miami Heat, but he’ll need consistent help and the return of key defenders Kendrick Perkins and Thabo Sefolosha, both of whom have been out since late February.  Russell Westbrook has had three knee operations spanning nine months and it’s far from clear whether he can contribute close to his maximum potential in a full-time capacity right now.

Los Angeles Clippers: Doc Rivers has put his stamp on the clippers, particularly with the expansion of Blake Griffin’s game and the elevation of DeAndre Jordan, but there are questions about whether they can dish out or respond well enough to playoff defense. Chris Paul may have to wait at least one more year to play in his first Finals.

Houston Rockets: The combination of Dwight Howard and James “The Beard” Harden could see the Rockets well prepared for the playoffs, but the question is whether or not they have the maturity and the time logged together to make a real run this year.

Golden State Warriors: They were the surprise package in last year’s playoffs and have fought well this season, despite struggling through periods of inconsistency. Their defense is decent and they have a good array of scorers, spearheaded by the Splash Brothers, their great 1-2 guard tandem of Steph Curry and Clay Thompson. Another team that may lack the appropriate collective maturity for sustained big moments, but they’ll have learned from last year and they are dangerous when on a roll.

Portland Trailblazers: They’ve had a terrific season, featuring one of the leagues best starting fives and have garnered fantastic team chemistry. However, those starters have played a lot of minutes and there may be too much wear on them to plausibly hope their season continues past the second round. Their defense wouldn’t appear to be playoff caliber, but their offense can hang in there late in games with the combination of great players such as Damian Lilliard and All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge.

Memphis Grizzlies: Assuming no late injuries take them out of the playoff group, this is a difficult team for the presumed front-runners to face. Their offense will likely eventually trip them up, but they are terrific defensively, smart and have gone deep in the playoffs before. The Grizzlies’ bench is stronger than in prior years, and although you don’t use the bench as much in the playoffs, it certainly could help.

Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks: Both teams have some fine qualities, but aren’t likely of the caliber to make it out of the first round.

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