Factors to consider when betting on the Fed Cup

Factors to consider when betting on the Fed Cup

By Dan Weston Apr 11, 2014

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With there being just one WTA tournament – a low-profile Kuala Lumpur International event – next week, much of the attention in the women’s game is focused on the Fed Cup World Group semi-finals, played on the 19/20th April. This article previews the 2014 Fed Cup World Group semi-finals.

Fed Cup Format

The format of the Fed Cup is slightly different to the men’s Davis Cup, with the doubles rubber being played as a fifth match decider, as opposed to the third in the Davis Cup. The effect of this is that doubles specialists are a little less relevant in the Fed Cup, as the tie may well be won or lost prior to their matches taking place. However, should a match be tied at two rubbers apiece, having players adept at doubles is obviously very useful indeed…

The semi-finals are between the Czech Republic and defending champions Italy, played at the CEZ Arena in Ostrava, and Australia and Germany, which is played at the Queensland Tennis Centre in Brisbane. The nations have played each other many times before, with Italy edging a 5-4 head to head record – which is pretty irrelevant – against the Czech Republic, whilst the 8-4 lead that Australia enjoy over Germany carries slightly more weight.

Strength in depth is a crucial facet in both the Fed Cup and Davis Cup, with nations able to be decimated by injuries and withdrawals, which can often take place for political, as well as scheduling reasons. Last year’s finalists, Russia, were forced to field a shadow of their best team, after a fall-out with their coach prior to their final with Italy. Whilst having an elite player is clearly a great advantage to nations, an over-reliance on them can cause huge difficulties should they be unavailable for a tie.

Czech Republic vs. Italy – Played on Indoor Hard Court.

Squad stats:-

Czech Republic

Singles Ranking

Doubles Ranking

Hard/Indoor W-L

Hard/Indoor Service Hold %

Hard/Indoor Service Break %

Hard/Indoor Combined %

Petra Kvitova

6

270

29-14

71.4

36.5

107.9

Lucie Safarova

26

22

22-13

74.8

30.1

104.9

Klara Koukalova

31

35

18-15

56.7

47.7

104.4

Andrea Hlavackova

113

12

3-6

70.8

28.4

99.2

 

Italy

Singles Ranking

Doubles Ranking

Hard/Indoor W-L

Hard/Indoor Service Hold %

Hard/Indoor Service Break %

Hard/Indoor Combined %

Sara Errani

11

5=

16-16

55.3

46.1

101.4

Roberta Vinci

16

5=

15-16

65.2

35.3

100.5

Karin Knapp

50

263

9-13

63.9

32.9

96.8

Camila Giorgi

69

NR

10-5

70.5

35.5

106

*Data taken from the last 12 months

We can see from the above stats that the Czech Republic (3.330*) have arguably the more accomplished players. Not only do they boast the highest ranked singles player – Petra Kvitova – their three highest ranked singles players have better surface win-loss record and combined hold/break percentages than the top three ranked Italian players.

However, both Errani and Vinci – whose results have been very disappointing so far in 2014 – did not participate in Italy’s 3-1 quarter final victory over the USA (also played on Indoor Hard). It was left to Knapp and the talented 22 year old Giorgi – whose stats have hugely improved this season – to take the first three singles rubbers over Christina McHale, Madison Keys and Alison Riske in Cleveland in February.

It will be interesting to see Italy (4.710*) captain Corrado Barazzutti’s singles selection, as Giorgi would possibly be a better choice over her higher ranked compatriots.

If the match goes to a deciding doubles rubber, Italy will be favourites. Errani/Vinci are superb doubles players and should have the edge over Andrea Hlavackova, and whomever captain Petr Pala decides to pair her with. Barbora Zahlavova-Strycova paired up with Hlavackova to get a crucial deciding rubber victory over Spain in the quarter final, but Zahlavova-Strycova was not nominated in the starting squad for the semi-final, with the returning Kvitova included.

Australia vs. Germany – Played on Outdoor Hard Court.

Squad stats:-

Australia

Singles Ranking

Doubles Ranking

Hard/Indoor W-L

Hard/Indoor Service Hold %

Hard/Indoor Service Break %

Hard/Indoor Combined %

Sam Stosur

20

42

24-12

74.4

33.6

108

Casey Dellaccqua

52

18

11-7

64.1

39.1

103.2

Ashleigh Barty

169

17

2-3

66.7

26

92.7

Storm Sanders

269

28

1-2

71.1

35.9

107

 

Germany

Singles Ranking

Doubles Ranking

Hard/Indoor W-L

Hard/Indoor Service Hold %

Hard/Indoor Service Break %

Hard/Indoor Combined %

Angelique Kerber

7

155

33-14

70.2

43.5

113.7

Angela Petkovic

28

90

10-11

65.2

33.5

98.7

Julia Goerges

94

30

8-15

66.2

29.7

95.9

Anna-Lena Groenefeld

NR

13

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

*Data taken from the last 12 months

This match-up is highly intriguing. The stats clearly show that in Angelique Kerber, Germany (3.800*) have the best player on the surface, with a significantly better win-loss record on hard court, as well as a superior hold/break combined percentage. No doubt she should be favourite if she plays both singles rubbers, with her likely opponent Sam Stosur – who often struggles to perform in her home country – and Casey Dellacqua, who has improved of late.

Both Ashleigh Barty and Storm Sanders have little WTA main tour experience, although both – especially Barty – have excellent doubles record. In 2013, Barty and Dellacqua reached three Grand Slam doubles finals together, and clearly this would give them a significant advantage in the event of a deciding doubles rubber, against likely opponents Groenefeld and Goerges, who lost in Germany’s quarter-final against Slovakia, in a dead rubber.

Australia’s (3.550*) success in this match is likely to be decided by two factors.

Firstly, how well Stosur copes with expectation in her home country. It should be noted that she has a 60.95% win percentage in her career, but this lowers to 55.21% in Australia.

The second factor is Casey Dellacqua. As the likely second singles player as well as doubles player, she will almost certainly need to take at least two from three rubbers for Australia to win the tie. Should she face Kerber, she will start as a heavy underdog, which means that her clash with Petkovic will be the crucial rubber in this match.

Dan Weston is a freelance tennis writer who, along with producing expert content for Pinnacle Sports, also produces his own tennis rating system, and trading analysis, which can be found at www.tennisratings.co.uk.

*Odds subject to change

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