Can Werdum Slay the Giant at UFC Fight Night?

Can Werdum Slay the Giant at UFC Fight Night?

By Gary Wise Apr 11, 2014

Tweet

On April 19th, Fabricio Werdum (17-5-1) and Travis Browne (16-1-1) will fight in a main event whose winner is presumed to be next in line for a shot at Cain Velazquez’s UFC heavyweight title. Below, we look at the fighters, how they match up and factors you should consider when betting on the fight.

History

In Fabricio Werdum and Travis Browne, we have two fighters who have taken diametrically opposed paths to fighting for a title shot. On the one hand, we have Werdum, the 36-year old Brazilian with black belts in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (2nd degree), Judo and Mui Thai, whose fighting has been sporadic (5 fights since 2009) and who actually needed to leave the UFC to be recognized as an elite fighter.

On the other hand, Brown has been considered a rising star since early in his career and has 12 wins by knockout. Where Werdum relies on technique, Brown is a 6’7” specimen who relies in large part on physical superiority, with a healthy dose of superior coaching from Greg Jackson, considered by many the top MMA trainer in the world.

Browne enters the fight as a solid favorite on the strength of recent first round knockout wins against veterans Gabriel Gonzaga, Alistair Overeem and Josh Barnett; the Overeem victory is especially noteworthy because of Werdum’s loss to Overeem in 2011.

The counterargument is that Werdum’s loss—his only one since 2008—came before Overeem was busted for steroid use, while Brown’s defeat of the Dutchman came afterwards. Werdum also defeated Antonio Silva, the one man to blemish Browne’s resume with a loss.

Striking

While Browne’s reputation as a striker is by far the more pronounced of the two, he and Werdum bring numbers that show some surprising similarity. Brown holds a small advantage in strikes landed per minute (2.94 to 2.83) and has 12 knockouts to Werdum’s five, but that’s where the numerical advantage ends. Werdum has the edge in accuracy (48% to 45%), while his Mui Thai training shines through in strikes absorbed per minute (1.86 to Browne’s 3.1) and striking defense (58% to 47%).

What are not shown in those numbers are two factors that seem to favor Browne; his power as evidenced by his knockout record and self-confidence. While the latter may seem superficial, it’s evident in his style; Browne engages almost recklessly, with faith that his superior physicality will win out in a brawl. While he prefers counterstriking to a proactive approach, he won’t wait too long to engage.

Grappling

The reason Browne’s approach has been so successful is that he’s forcing other fighters to acclimate to his style of fight. This is most evident in the fact that, in 18 fights, he’s never been taken down. By contrast, Werdum has only managed to defend 36% of takedowns, but this is by design; 9 of his 17 wins have come via submission, and there’s no doubt he prefers to fight from his back. In the Overeem fight, he practically begged for the privilege.

Brown has won two fights by submission and does go for takedowns with great success (78% success rate), but the guess here is that coach Jackson will tell him to keep the fight on the feet at all costs. That will leave it to Werdum to get the fight to the ground; Browne’s takedown defense will make that a tall order for a man who has only been successful with takedowns 34% of the time over his career

Conclusions

While Werdum’s experience can’t be ignored, neither can the faults it betrays. Since 2006, he’s lost three fights; to Andrei Arlovski, Junior dos Santos and Alistair Overeem, three huge men who relied on knockouts for the majority of their victories, buoyed by strong takedown defense. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it?

While Werdum could hope to out-point Browne in a Marquess of Queensberry-style dance, Browne is unlikely to cooperate. Werdum’s real hope is that the relatively undisciplined Browne slips up, allowing Werdum an opening for a submission. Either you think Browne’s coaches will have him prepared for that scenario or you don’t. Which way you go there should probably guide your betting.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.