2015 ~ Betting is life

четверг, 14 мая 2015 г.

How do big servers perform against strong returners on the handicap?

This tennis betting strategy article looks at trends when 'big servers' and 'strong returners' go head-to-head, with a view to generating tennis handicap betting opportunities.

In this previous article we found that:

ATP Top 10 'big servers' won best of three matches in straight sets more often than the top 10 most return orientated players (38.3% compared to 30.9%).

'Big server' matches went to a deciding set less than 'strong returners' (35.1% compared to 40.0%).

'Big server' matches covered the over 22.5 game line significantly more (52.1% compared to 46.4%).

This highlighted that backing strong returners to win at ‘-1.5 sets’ was generally a worse bet than backing big servers to win in straight sets.

Isner vs. Nadal

At Monte Carlo in 2015, John Isner (starting price 8.260) took on the greatest clay-courter of all time, Rafael Nadal. The big-serving American came close to an upset, eventually losing 6-7 6-4 3-6 - which covered the over 2.5 sets and the ‘average’ over 22.5 game lines.

In the 12 months prior to the match, Nadal held 83.1% and broke 45.4% on clay, with Isner’s strong serve propelling him to a higher hold percentage - 93.2% - but his limited return game meant he only broke opponents 6.9% on the dirt.

These statistics generated a projected hold (on a relatively slow clay court) of 70.1% on Isner, which is almost certainly his lowest projected hold percentage for a considerable time.

Serve dominated the match, with Nadal conceding just three break points in 16 service games (being broken once) and these figures wouldn’t be hugely dissimilar to pre-match expectations.

However, in Isner’s 15 service games, he was broken just once. Therefore, compared to pre-match expectations, Isner’s serve over-performed, and in this one-off match, negated Nadal’s magnificent return game.

On this basis, it would be beneficial for tennis bettors to see if big servers were generally able to do the same across a bigger sample, or whether this one match was an outlier.

The following table illustrates the results of the top 15 big servers (Nick Kyrgios was omitted due to lack of matches), in best of three set head-to-head matches against the 15 most return orientated players from 2013 onwards:

Player

Matches

Win %

3 set match %

Over 22.5 games%

Karlovic

33.3

58.3

Isner

54.5

36.4

63.6

Groth

100

De Schepper

Raonic

71.4

14.3

Lopez

42.9

Johnson

100

Tomic

66.7

22.2

Querrey

71.4

57.1

Tsonga

Bolelli

100

Anderson

57.1

71.4

Pospisil V

Sock

62.5

Del Potro

100

66.7

Overall

58.8

38.1

47.4

Results

We can see that big servers had the edge, winning 58.8% of head-to-head matches sampled, despite only having one top ten player (Milos Raonic) in their group, compared to two (David Ferrer and Andy Murray) in the strong returner list.

In addition 38.1% of sampled matches reached a deciding set. This is 2.9% above the 2014 ATP average of 35.2%, so the head-to-head matches between big servers and strong returners covered over 2.5 sets more frequently than average.

Previously we discovered that the top ten big server matches went to a deciding set 35.1% of the time, and strong returners did so 40.0%.

The head-to-head sample result of 38.1% is between these two figures, indicating that both genres contribute to weighting this figure.

However, the over 22.5 game lines were skewed strongly towards the strong returner data, with just 47.4% of head-to-head matches covering this line.

This is very similar to the 46.4% generated from the top 10 return orientated players from the previous article, and significantly below the top 10 biggest servers, which was 52.1%.

On this basis, we can start to draw several conclusions:

Backing over on the game handicap in these matches should be carefully considered.

'Big servers' went over 22.5 games 46.4% of the time, but covered 52.1% on the handicap, meaning when big servers' go head-to-head, they could be expected to cover around 60% of the time.

Nothing can be read into the one-off match between Isner and Nadal, and is more to do with the current frailties in the Spaniards game.

This article should give tennis bettors a good guide of how to approach head-to-head matches between 'big servers' and 'strong returners', and contribute to research for betting handicap opportunities.

Click here to see the latest ATP odds.

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Terms & Conditions

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Online Roulette casino strategy

Understanding how to play on online Roulette will give you the best chance to win.

While online Roulette appears to be based on luck, there are strategies you can use to win on Roulette and maximise your profits.

Online Roulette strategy

Martingale

If betting on either black vs. red or odd numbers vs. even, then a martingale strategy can help you win on online Roulette.

Each time you lose, double the amount that you bet the first time and then bet on the same colour until you win.

Example:

Let's say you bet $10 on red and it lands on black. The next turn, you would bet $20 on red so if you win, you earn your stake back and make a profit.

If it lands on black again, double your stake, betting $40 on red. Continue doing so until the wheel lands on red (which it will), to win your losses back and gain a profit.

Roulette players should remember that this strategy requires you to have enough money in your account to be able to double up if necessary.

James Bond Roulette strategy

The James Bond Roulette strategy involves betting $200 total, distributed as follows:

$140 on the high numbers (19-36)

$50 on the six numbers (13-18)

$10 on zero

Therefore if you land on 19 to 36, you will have a profit of $80. If one of the six numbers from 13 to 18 comes out, you will have a profit of $100, while a Zero results in a profit of $160.

The only way to lose with this strategy is if a number between 1 and 12 comes up. However, you can then employ the Martingale strategy mentioned earlier.

Use bonuses to increase your capital

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Play classic Casino or live Roulette

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Online Blackjack casino strategy

If you want to win lots of money playing online blackjack in the Pinnacle Sports Casino, then learning some Blackjack strategy is vital.

You might be thinking that everything is simply down to the luck of the cards but there's a lot more to Blackjack than that. And having a Blackjack strategy is very important.

Online Blackjack strategy

Beat the dealer

Blackjack strategy will teach you that the game isn't all about getting as close to or hitting 21. It's great if you can do that but your main task is to beat the dealer.

This knowledge will help you learn how to win at Blackjack, and then you can start beating the dealer and winning money.

Freedom

In Blackjack, the player has more freedom than the dealer. You can choose to play your hand in whatever way you want too. Every decision is entirely yours.

That's not the case for the dealer who has to abide by house rules and must stand at 17 or over.

Use your knowledge

The big advantage you have is that you get to see one of the dealer's cards, allowing you to make an educated estimate of how the hand will develop.

Blackjack strategy charts

Basic Blackjack strategy charts are widely available online. The bonus of playing online is that you can print out these charts and continually refer to it while you're playing.

Blackjack strategy declares that your hand can fall into one of two categories - hard and soft totals.

A hard total is one in which you haven't been dealt an ace. If you have been lucky enough to be given an ace then that's a soft total. Why? Well the ace has two values 1 and 11 so that's going to be a big help to you.

Example:

The charts show you how to win at Blackjack based on the hand you have been dealt and the one card you know the dealer has.

If your two cards total 16 do you hit or stand? The basic Blackjack strategy chart suggests if the dealer has a card between 2 and 6 then you should stand and let them hit more cards.

If the dealers card is 7 or more then you should hit. Why?

Well there's more cards in the pack with a value of 10 than any other. That means the dealer is likely to be on 17 after their next card causing them to stand and beat your 16.

You might think it's crazy to hit on 16 but it could be your only chance of winning.

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Is a short-term profit always a sign of good betting?

As a bettor do you understand how luck influences your short-term betting? Is a run of five winning bets skill or luck? This article explains how assigning probabilities to your bets is a good habit to develop, as a run of winning bets isn't always a sign of good betting.

The relationship between bookmaker and bettor is based around the odds priced up by the former, and the opinion of the latter regarding the accuracy of that calculation.

The most readily used example is a fair coin toss. The expectation that either a head or tail will result from a single toss is equal, with an implied probability of 0.5, and if this expectation were to be converted to decimal odds, the fair price for a head or tail would be 2.0.

Of course, a bookmaker intent on making profit would price this market up at shorter odds than 2.0 to ensure that any bet made would, in the long term, be favourable to the book. A price of 1.87 on both would have an implied probability of 0.535 for each of the two possible outcomes.

The margin - learn how to calculate betting margins here - for such a simple market is derived from the sum of the implied probabilities. In the case of the example above, this would be 1.07 and the margin would typically be quoted as 7%.

The larger the margin, the easier task the bookmaker has to ensure their prices are not longer than the true chance of an event happening, which would present a long term value opportunity for the bettor.

Therefore, a bookmaker who consistently applies low margins to their markets, such as Pinnacle Sports should be the preferred bookmaker, as they are more likely to present value betting opportunities in sporting markets, where, unlike a coin toss, the odds are influenced by numerous variables.

How likely is a run of profitable bets?

If betting with a low margin book is the first step to a profitable approach, the most visible sign that a series of bets have passed the value test, is a profitable yield.

However, bettors should look at how likely it is that a run of bets will produce a profit or loss based on the implied true probabilities.

If we again use the artificial example of a series of coin tosses, where we are certain of the true probability, we can calculate the likelihood that a particular run of bets will be profitable or not.

The outcome of ten such true even money bets can range from ten consecutive losing bets all the way through to a full house of winners.

It is more likely that the outcome of ten such trials will include a mix of successful and unsuccessful wagers and the most likely outcome is an even split of wins and losses. In simulations or by the use of a binomial calculator, this particular outcome has a probability of occurring nearly 0.25.

The outcome of each trial is independent of the previous outcome and the bookmaker will use the margin to offer an unfavourable price for each toss.

If, for example the price for each outcome was set at 1.87 - a margin of 7% - five successes from 10 bets would produce a return of 9.35 units if 1 unit level stakes were wagered on each of the ten bets.

Overall, a yield of 0.65 units lost from the ten units staked.

How the margin affects your returns

We can use this simple example to illustrate the importance of understanding the effect the bookmaker’s margin has on returns. If each event had been priced at 1.95, the margin would have only been 2.5% compared to the previous 7% and although a loss would still have been made from only picking five winners from ten bets, this loss would have fallen from 0.65 units to 0.25.

To make a profit from such a series of poor value wagers, six or more successes are required. And again either by simulations or with the online calculator there is just under a 0.21 probability that exactly six wins fall in ten trials, and a yield of 1.22 units are made at 1.87 or 1.7 units at the more generous price of 1.95.

Of course, seven wins and greater will also produce a positive return from these ten bets and the cumulative probability for each number of wins of six or greater totals nearly 0.38.

Therefore, because of how we have set up this artificial scenario, we know that each individual wager is priced to represent poor value for the bettor. Yet there is not an insignificant chance that six or more wins will occur in ten bets and a profit will be made.

Keep records to identify the difference between luck & skill

Real life betting sequences will involve a variety of prices and stakes, but the key to a successful approach will include identifying prices, which may not fully reflect your estimation of the actual chances of an outcome occurring.

Therefore, keeping a record of your estimation of the true probability of your bet being successful, alongside the implied probability from the bookmaker’s odds, is a good habit to develop.

Not only can you compare the two values, but it also allows for relatively simple spreadsheet based simulations, along the lines of the coin toss scenario, to be created to examine the part in which luck and skill may have played in the short term to your current yield.

A knowledgeable bettor will often think in probabilistic terms, not only for individual outcomes, but also in the profit or loss scenario from a sequence of such bets.

среда, 22 апреля 2015 г.

Does the market understand the home and away dynamics of the Davis Cup?

The Davis Cup is tennis’ premier team event, and is arguably the biggest example of a home/away concept seen in most other sports. This article assesses whether there is a home field advantage for nations in the Davis Cup, and if the market takes this into account?

The advantage of playing at home in the Davis Cup

126 nations entered the 2015 Davis Cup, while the elite 16 participate in the knock-out World Group, on a yearly basis.

The eight teams that lose in the World Group first round participate in a relegation play-off with the eight winners from Zone Group One, with the eight winners participating in the quarter-finals.

As the main team event in tennis, the Davis Cup is the only event where nations have home advantage, as the Hopman Cup team exhibition is held in Australia.

The rules for deciding who plays at home are simple - the venue is reversed from the two nations’ previous meeting.

Home nations theoretically have a big advantage, as they are able to choose the venue, and surface, for the tie.

The 2014 Davis Cup quarter-final tie between Italy and Great Britain provides a good example of the benefits to choosing the venue.

Italy were the designated home team, and chose to play the tie on clay in Naples. This suited their players - Fabio Fognini (an out-and-out clay courter) and Andreas Seppi - whilst negating Great Britain’s edge of having the highest ranked player in the tie, Andy Murray – his ineffectiveness on clay has been well documented.

Ultimately, Murray’s rubber against Fognini was the crucial match in the tie, and the Italian prevailed in straight sets.

If the tie had been played on any other surface, and in particular the Grass or Indoor Hard surfaces preferred by Great Britain, Murray would have been an overwhelming favourite against, but clay made the ability differential between the two players much smaller.

With the surface advantage considered, it's logical that home teams should win ties more often than 50% of the time. The table below shows the results of the outright team markets in the World Group between 2012 and 2014, with a hypothetical £100 bet placed on the home nation using Pinnacle Sports’ closing prices:

Year

Matches

Home wins

Win %

P/L

ROI

2012

-382

-25.5

2013

66.7

2014

66.7

-175

-11.7

Overall

64.4

-527

-11.7

Home teams have an advantage but are over-valued

The statistics clearly indicate that home teams have an advantage, with 29 of the 45 ties won by the home nation.

However for betting purposes, it's clear that the market factors in this advantage, and with a -11.7% return on investment, it would appear that home teams are over-rated by outright bettors.

The table below shows further evidence to this assertion, showing the results of all the individual rubbers (including relegation playoffs) in the World Group. As before, a £100 hypothetical bet was applied for all home nation players:

Year

Matches

Home wins

Win %

P/L

ROI

2012

63.2

-844

-11.1

2013

64.9

-462

-6

2014

61.7

-348

-4.3

Overall

234

148

63.2

-1654

-7.1

It's clear home players enjoy an advantage, with consistent win percentages over 60%. Despite this, blindly backing home players generated highly negative figures, with a return on investment of -7.1% from 234 matches.

The data illustrates that home teams and players do enjoy an edge in matches, but this edge is somewhat over-rated by the betting market.

Backing home players and nations should only be considered in very select circumstances, and value looks to exist on backing away players and nations instead.

Further research to try and find value on away players who are competent on the home nation’s choice of surface is highly recommended for Davis Cup betting.

Click here to see the latest ATP odds.

пятница, 17 апреля 2015 г.

Great reasons to bet Australian Sports at Pinnacle Sports

The Australian sporting calendar is in full swing with AFL, Super 15 and NRL providing a betting bonanza. Find out how low margins and high limits are two reasons why Aussie bettors should be betting at Pinnacle Sports.

The ‘Big Three’ Australian Sports

To prove our commitment and passion for Australian Sports we’ve improved our offerings for the ‘Big Three’ Australian markets – AFL, Super 15 and NRL.

We’ve made significant enhancements to our Handicap, Money Line and Total points markets across these three sports.

We offer you the best odds across the industry, and unlike the majority of other bookmakers winners are welcome, i.e. we won’t ban you if you are a successful bettor.

The AFL is in full swing and we have unbeatable odds for every week of the season as the Hawks try to win their third straight title.

The 2015 Super 15 season exploded into life in February, and you can bet on all games at Pinnacle Sports, while close to game day props are also available. Can the Waratahs defend their title?

The much anticipated 2015 NRL season is underway, can the Sydney Roosters defend their title or will there be another name on the cup this year?

Unrivalled Margins on Australian Sports

We are offering unrivalled margins of just 2.5% for Money Lines and Handicaps on the ‘Big Three’ Australian sports, with Totals at 3.84%. This is much smaller compared to our competitors who offer margins ranging from 5-6%.

So what does this mean for you the bettor?

In layman’s terms, betting with the lowest margins at Pinnacle Sports will give you better odds for your favourite Australian sports, presenting you with the best potential value on the market, which translate to bigger potential wins.

Click here to understand the fundamentals of how margins work, including how to calculate them yourself.

Huge limits give bettors the chance to win more

We have also raised the limits you can bet on Australian Sports to demonstrate how serious we are about offering a committed service and confirm ourselves as the best bookmaker for Australian Sports betting.

Below is a table outlining the standard limits for the ‘Big Three’ Australian sports, but will vary game-to-game, and may increase in key matches:

Sport

Handicap (AUD)

Money Line (AUD)

Totals (AUD)

AFL

$19,000

$13,000

$3,000

Super 15

$13,000

$6,000

$3,000

NRL

$26,000

$13,000

$3,000

Still want to bet more? As bettors at Pinnacle Sports you can build positions with successive bets to increase your stake and therefore, potential winnings.

You can rebet up to the maximum limit – whether the price has changed or not – once a short period of time has elapsed.

Winners are welcome - we don't restrict profitable players

Unlike other bookmakers offering odds on Australian Sports – who are prone to closing successful bettors accounts – Pinnacle Sports welcomes winning players.

Not only do we not restrict winning players, we encourage them. The reason is down to our low margin approach, which needs sharp players to shape markets and generate volume.

With winner’s welcome, best odds, unrivalled margins and huge limits on AFL, Super 15 Rugby and NRL, Pinnacle Sports is the smart choice when betting on Australian Sports.

NBA Head Trader has his say on the Playoffs

Ahead of the first NBA Playoff games Pinnacle Sports' NBA head trader gives his thoughts on the First round games in both the Western and Eastern Conferences. Do you agree with our NBA oddsmaker?

Western Conference – First Round Playoffs

Golden State Warriors vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Exciting times for both teams.

The Warriors posted the best record in the NBA at 67-15 - despite playing in the power-packed West - while going a terrifying 39-2 at home, the joint-second best record in NBA history.

The Warriors outscored their opponents for the season by a whopping average of 10.1 points per game

Likely MVP winner Stephen Curry leads an athletic, smart, deep group, which can dominate, on either end of the court. The Warriors outscored their opponents for the season by a whopping average of 10.1 points per game.

The Pelicans return to the playoffs for the first time in the post Chris Paul era, led by 22-year-old PF/C starlet Anthony Davis.

The Warriors won the season series 3-1, but two of the Pelicans losses came without Davis on the court, while they won the final meeting quite recently, a 103-100 home victory.

Bet the Golden State Warriors vs. New Orleans Pelicans series now.

L.A. Clippers vs. San Antonio Spurs

The best first round match-up in terms of talent – possibly ever.

The Clippers were white-hot down the stretch, winning 14 of their final 15 games, but with few challenging opponents.

Home court edge keeps this from being an obvious Spurs' advance. The Clippers have a potent trio of Paul, Griffin and Jordan...comparative team depth is a big disadvantage for them against the Spurs, but not quite as relevant in the playoffs.

The defending champions Spurs also crushed the end of their schedule, winning 11 of 12 and 21 of 25.

Kahwi Leonard and a healthier Tony Parker were the difference-makers in their late season ascension, which nonetheless was derailed in their loss to the Pelicans on the final night.

This season they split their four meetings. The Clippers won the last two, but both teams have been dominant since then.

The Spurs swept aside the Clippers in the playoffs three years ago, however much has changed for LA, in particular, since then.

See the latest odds on the L.A. Clippers vs. San Antonio Spurs series.

Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks

A Texas war.

From the owners to the players, these two franchises just don't like each other, adding spice to the natural playoff intensity.

The Rockets have had a terrific season, despite Center Dwight Howard missing half their games (he's fairly healthy now), and several others being in and out of the line-up.

James "The Beard" Harden is the biggest reason, with both his beautiful and crafty offense and his noticeably improved defense and leadership.

The Mavs are always a threat under the savvy guidance of Coach Carlisle but Dirk has clearly dropped off this year, the addition of Rajon Rondo has had limited success, and the team D beyond Tyson Chandler, is awful.

Houston won the season series 3-1, while Howard missed three of those games, including the only Rocket loss.

Get the best odds for the Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks series.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Without the sex appeal of the other West match-ups, but someone has to advance.

The Blazers have been hit hard by recent injuries, most notably to Wes Matthews, a fine 3-pt shooter, ace defender and vocal team leader.

Aldridge and Batum aren't too healthy and Matthews' back-up Aaron Afflalo will miss the post-season. The Blazers can score with Aldridge and Lillard, but their defence isn't playoff caliber right now.

The 2014-5 edition of the Grizzlies is familiar...you either like their NBA-rare "Grit-n-Grind" approach to the game, or you don't.

Memphis possess good leadership and play tough D most of the time, but they haven't solved their outside shooting deficiencies enough.

See the latest odds for the Memphis Grizzlies vs. Portland Trail Blazers series.

Eastern Conference – First Round Playoffs

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics

JAMES & CO. vs. the Celtic kids.

Lebron James has helped this fresh blend of Cavaliers come together just in time to give him a shot at a fifth consecutive Finals.

Kyrie Irving has finally matched the hype surrounding him, whereas Kevin Love has proven an awkward fit so far.

Lebron James has helped this fresh blend of Cavaliers come together just in time to give him a shot at a fifth consecutive Finals

The Cavs astutely added to their core around mid-season - Timofey Mozgov, JR Smith and Iman Shumpert are a huge reason the Cavs may go far. There is a ton of O here, but are these guys ready for the sort of D it usually takes to go deep in the playoffs?

Coach Stevens has worked some real magic in leading his Boston charges to a great season finish and another franchise battle with a Lebron James' team.

Stevens is a young master of preparation and inspiration - don't be shocked if the Celtics win a couple of games.

They split the series 2-2, although the two losses came in the past week with the Cavs somewhat or completely taking it easy.

Bet the Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics series now.

Toronto Raptors vs. Washington Wizards

Looks like a good, even match between two unpredictable teams.

The Raptors began the season on fire at 24-7. An injury to DeMar DeRozan eventually caught up with them, Kyle Lowry ran out of gas and their defense disintegrated.

Just lately they appear to have found themselves enough to be a bit of a tough outfit again.

The Wizards have also gone through phases of looking solid, only to look miserable for another stretch. PG John Wall remains their engine on both sides of the court.

Toronto swept the series 3-0, but these teams haven't squared off in two months, which could be a factor here.

See the latest odds for the Toronto Raptors vs. Washington Wizards series.

Chicago Bulls vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Expressway series (90 miles apart).

The Bulls' season understandably has focused on Derrick Rose's bumpy comeback season from nearly two full years off.

Fortunately, room has been made for Chicago to embrace 34-year-old Pau Gasol and his return to All-Star form. Gasol has posted double-doubles (10+ pts and rebounds) in nearly 70% of the Bulls' games.

Noah, Gibson and Hinrich are all a bit nicked, while Rose recently returned from an in-season surgery. He looks decent at times, but not peaking with the sort of form he rates to need to fuel a long Chicago playoff run.

The Bucks are a major surprise. Jason Kidd took the helm of some decent youngsters and a batch of middling veterans.

Give the players credit, but Kidd and his staff at least as much for getting this motley crew to believe and play with a lot of energy (especially on D) through most of the 82-game grind.

In the Regular season the Bulls took 3 of 4 from Milwaukee, with the Bucks winning the most recent clash, at home.

Get the best odds for the Chicago Bulls vs. Milwaukee Bucks series.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Brooklyn Nets

Which Hawks will show up?

Atlanta had a great season, which was a big surprise. They locked up the #1 East seed with a few weeks to go, having gone on a spectacular 33-2 run from late November to the end of January.

They've gone 20-14 since, but they were being careful with starters' minutes for the final 4-5 weeks. Other than Paul Millsap's shoulder issue, the Hawks should be quite fresh.

They have no prominent stars, but plenty of solid talent. ATL has a great court dynamic/chemistry, featuring unselfishness and fine communication.

The Nets survived the 8th seed battle by the skin of their teeth. Brook Lopez's return to 2012-13 form toward the finish line was the big story.

However, team speed is lacking, as is the sort of consistency on either end of the court to pull off a major upset.

In the Regular season the Hawks beat the Nets in all four meetings, and two were heavy.

See the latest odds for the Atlanta Hawks vs. Brooklyn Nets series.

четверг, 16 апреля 2015 г.

Do the odds on favourites Arsenal and Liverpool offer true value?

The FA Cup reaches the semi-final stage at the weekend with underdogs Reading and Aston Villa taking on Arsenal and Liverpool, respectively at Wembley Stadium. This FA Cup semi-final betting preview looks at the odds to see if big favourites Arsenal and Liverpool offer any value?

The cream tends to rise to the top in the FA Cup

Much folklore has developed around the rich history of the competition, most notably the view that the cup is a great leveller, allowing unconsidered teams to surprise their more fancied opponents.

However, the reality is that despite unexpected results are occur, there is no evidence that the minnows derive an extra advantage merely because the match is an FA cup tie.

The gap between the richest Premier League teams and the rest is evident not only over 38 league games, but also in outcomes of recent FA cup competitions.

Since 2000, 13 of the 15 finals have been won by one of the Premier League’s big five sides - Man United, Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal - only Portsmouth and Wigan having broken that streak.

In the last 14 years 78% of semi-finalists have been one of the big five EPL teams

An unseeded draw and the unforgiving nature of knockout football, may occasionally scupper the chances of that year’s best all round side, but since 2000, it has been odds on that at least one finalist will be a member of the top five elite.

In the last 14 years 78% of semi-finalists have been one of the big five teams. So the culmination of this year’s competition would appear typical of the recent past.

Therefore, recent FA cup history, along with league form, strongly favours defending champions Arsenal and Liverpool.

Who will progress to the FA Cup final?

Identifying the most likely finalists is reasonably straightforward, but attaching probabilities to the individual match outcomes to compare these to the odds requires some simple data crunching.

Liverpool’s clash with Aston Villa is the most straightforward as both are Premier League teams. The Reds, after Monday night had a goal difference of +11 from 32 games or an average difference of 0.34 goals per game, compared to a goal difference of -21 from 33 games or -0.64 per game for Villa.

So over the season so far, with no weighting for more recent results, Liverpool average goal difference per game is 0.98 of a goal superior to Villa’s, with neither side enjoying home advantage on Sunday.

Similar calculations using the scoring and conceding rates of both sides at home and away, estimate that Liverpool are around 9 tenths of a goal superior to Villa on neutral turf and using the Poisson distribution and methods described in this linked post, give Liverpool (1.571) a 61% chance of winning in 90 minutes, with Villa’s (6.650) chances at 17% and a draw at 22%.

Reading, of course do not currently play in the Premier League. But teams from the Championship do frequently meet EPL teams in the domestic cups and three teams swap places through relegation and promotion each year.

Using these collateral form lines we can estimate that the best Championship teams are typically as good as the 16th or 17th best Premier League teams.

So we can estimate in terms of goal difference, the current quality gap between Reading and the promotion contenders in the Championship and Arsenal and the teams just above the EPL relegation places.

Arsenal are around 2.4 goals per game superior to Reading at a neutral venue

Arsenal are likely to be around 2.4 goals per game superior to Reading at a neutral venue, which translates to a 85% chance for the Gunners, 4% for the Royals and 11% for a draw. Reading’s odds of 15.750 reflect this, while Arsenal are available at 1.243 on the 1X2 market.

These baseline numbers partly omit situational factors. Liverpool may be a better team now they have a more settled attack since Sturridge’s return from injury, while experience of both Wembley and the big occasion could help to favour Arsenal even more strongly against Reading.

For the Saturday evening game, where Arsenal are clearly superior, total goals tend to increase as the talent gap between the teams widens. However, bettors should remember sides have no real incentive to score lots in a single knockout game. Reading can be backed at +1.5 and 2 on the handicap with Pinnacle Sports.

And similarly, where a team is favoured by around 0.9 of a goal, as Liverpool are against Villa, the average number of total goals scored would usually be an above average 2.7. However, 61% of Villa’s games have had two goals or fewer, this season, including both league encounters with Liverpool. The handicap is set at -1 in favour of Liverpool.

Click here to see the latest FA Cup semi-final odds.

Be part of the action with our new NBA Live product

To coincide with the NBA Playoffs Pinnacle Sports are launching a significantly improved industry leading live betting product. Live NBA 2.0 puts you in the heart of the action with non-stop betting from tip-off to buzzer. Find out what NBA Live 2.0 means for your playoff betting and enter our competition for a chance to win a cash prize of $1000, and limited edition merchandise.

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Bet continuously

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Eastern Conference - First Round

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April 18th: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Chicago Bulls (4:00 pm PDT)

April 19th: Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (12:00 pm PDT)

April 19th: Brooklyn Nets vs. Atlanta Hawks (2:30pm PDT)

Western Conference - First Round

April 18th: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Golden State Warriors (12:30 pm PDT)

April 18th: Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets (6:30 pm PDT)

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* A minimum bet of $5 or equivalent in local currency

Terms & Conditions

The Live NBA 2.0 competition is open to new and existing customers of Pinnacle Sports, one entry per customer.

To be eligible for the competition you must have placed a minimum $5 graded live NBA bet on any of the eight opening games of the 2015 Playoffs.

The winners will be drawn at random on April 21st, 2015 from eligible entrants.

Cash prizes will be credited to the winner’s Pinnacle Sports account in US Dollars or equivalent local currency, with no rollover requirements.

Subject to these terms, the winner will be credited/emailed within 5 days of the prize draw taking place.

In the case of any disputes, the decision taken by Pinnacle Sports shall be final.

In the case of abuse or fraud, Pinnacle Sports reserves the right to cancel the competition at any time.

четверг, 9 апреля 2015 г.

15 Eurovision betting trends

The 2015 Eurovision Song Contest commences on May 19th with 40 countries competing for the crown. This article highlights a number of Eurovision song contest trends, to help your betting.

1 – G’Day Australia

Australia make their debut at Eurovision, making them only the second country outside of Europe to compete after Morocco in 1980. Guy Sebastian’s “Tonight Again” is available at 15.090 to win.

1:27 – A quick Finnish

Finland’s Eurovision entry “Aina mun pitää” (I always have to) by PKN is the shortest song to be entered in the history of Eurovision at 1 minute and 27 seconds. They are 13.840 to win the competition.

2nd – The curse of Eurovision

Throughout the history of Eurovision, no country has won when performing second.

2 (Again) – Will Estonia celebrate yesterday?

Estonia’s entry “Goodbye to Yesterday” by Elina Born & Stig Rasta has them as 3rd favourites at 7.210. They previously won back in 2001, which is their solitary win to date.

3 – Italy to take flight?

Italy are second favourites to win Eurovision this year at 4.170 with their entry “Grande Amore” by Il Volo (The Flight). The group’s album was released in Italy in February, and after three weeks was certified platinum. Should Italy triumph it would take them up to three Eurovision wins.

6 – Swede success?

The favourite (2.580) is Sweden’s entry “Heroes” by Mans Zelmerlow. Should Sweden win, they would become the second most successful nation with six Eurovision wins.

6 – Home Advantage

The host country has won Eurovision on six occasions; most recently in Ireland in 1993 and 1994. Austria are hosting this year.

7 – Sing when you’re winning

Ireland hold the record of the most Eurovision wins with seven. They tasted victory in 1970, 1980, 1987, 1992, 1993, 1994 and 1996.

7 – It’ll be all white on the night

Strangely performers wearing white outfits have won Eurovision more times than any other colour.

12 - Maximum points

Sweden’s entry in 2012 - “Euphoria” - holds the record for being award the most maximum number of points - 12 - from 18 countries.

15 - Good but not good enough

The United Kingdom have finished as Eurovision runners-up a record 15 times. However their most recent near miss (and best finish) hasn’t been since 1998.

16 - Nul Points

Since the introduction of the current scoring system in 1975, there have been 16 entries that have received no points - the most recent in 2009.

28 – Female advantage

Female solo artists hold an advantage over their male counterparts, with 28 wins compared to just seven.

29 – English Tone

The last seven Eurovision winners were sung in English, in fact, in the last decade there has only been one winning song not in English, which was in 2007 when Serbia triumphed with “Molitva”.

387 – Record Points

Norway currently hold the record for the most points won at Eurovision, when Alexander Rybak’s song “Fairytale” scored 387 points in 2009.

Click here for the latest Eurovision song contest odds.

Is there value betting on recent Junior Slam winners

When young players breakthrough onto the main ATP Tour, there is little statistical data on them. This article looks at whether the tennis market can accurately assess a Junior Grand Slam winner’s ability once they start playing ATP main draw matches.

When two elite players go head-to-head it's very rare for either to offer strong statistical value, given there is a plethora of historical data on them to interpret.

Therefore pre-match betting is unlikely to provide bettors with an edge, unless the bookmakers make a big mistake.

However, very young players - who haven’t played on the ATP tour - are far less exposed. Therefore with a lack of statistical data, it's very difficult to price up their matches accurately.

A comparison can be drawn to horse racing. A veteran horse will have raced many times, which will allow bettors to make an accurate assessment of their level, while a two-year-old may have only raced a couple of times, making it very difficult to know both their current level and potential.

In tennis, it's difficult to gauge whether or not young players will be over or underrated by the markets.

As mentioned in previous articles, subjective assertions are generally to be avoided, which is why quantitative statistics are much preferred.

On this basis, an assessment was made for the first ten ATP main draw matches for male Junior Grand Slam winners between 2010-2014. Only matches where a set was completed were included, and all prices used were Pinnacle Sports’ closing prices:

Player

Current Rank

Matches

Win %

P/L

ROI

Tiago Fernandes

2040

N/A

Agustin Velotti

314

-200

-100

Marton Fucsovics

154

Jack Sock

-112

-11.2

Jiri Vesely

-623

-62.3

Bjorn Fratangelo

166

N/A

Luke Saville (2)

186

33.33

-145

-24.17

Oliver Golding

717

-300

-100

Kimmer Coppejans

150

-200

-100

Filip Peliwo (2)

337

423

84.6

Nick Kyrgios

704

70.4

Christian Garin

233

345

86.25

Gianluigi Quinzi

373

N/A

Borna Coric

499

49.9

Alexander Zverev

129

152

15.2

Andrey Rublev

389

147

29.4

Noah Rubin

637

-200

-100

Omar Jasika

444

-100

Overall

32.14

486

5.79

No guarantee of success

There are a number of statistics that should interest tennis bettors. The first is how few Junior Slam winners have actually made a significant breakthrough - just four of the 18 Junior Slam winners from 2010 onwards have achieved a top 100 ranking.

Indeed, the two Juniors who won it twice, Filip Peliwo and Luke Saville, are currently ranked well outside the top 150.

In addition, Oliver Golding, who gave Britons hope for the future with a US Open Junior triumph in 2011, has already retired, having grown disillusioned with the sport.

It's clear to see that Junior success does not guarantee main ATP Tour success, and even carving out a career in the sport is far from a given.

The big four

However, four Junior Slam winners - Nick Kyrgios, Borna Coric, Jack Sock and Jiri Vesely – are currently ranked inside the top 50. Only Vesely, with two wins from his first ten matches at ATP level, had a shocking start to life on the main tour.

Kyrgios and Coric had superb success, both winning half of their first ten matches and recording a huge return on investment.

It's also apparent how experience tended to help these players - all the players with 10 or more main tour appearances are ranked inside the top 150.

On this basis it’s reasonable to assume that these young players learn fast, and being from a major nation, where players frequently benefit from wild cards to big events is beneficial.

Tennis betting takeaway

Overall, these Junior Grand Slam winners recorded a solid 5.790% return on investment from 84 main tour matches. This hints that these players are slightly under-rated by the market, albeit from a relatively small sample.

With current speculation about a ‘changing of the guard’, and a great deal of hype surrounding many young players, bettors may be interested in conducting further research to see if these results are replicated over a bigger sample, as it would provide them with a major edge in the tennis betting markets.

Click here to see the latest ATP odds.

Are soccer games more unpredictable towards the end of the season?

It's said that as the soccer season draws to an end, the games become more unpredictable. To help your soccer betting this article looks at the influence of motivation towards the end of the campaign, and analyses the data to see if games actually become more unpredictable towards the end of the season?

The question of motivation is difficult to analyse. A soccer match lasts 90 minutes and any apparent sub-par performance can be marked as a side lacking effort, when it's merely variation.

At the end of a season motivations throughout the league differ. Certain teams are embroiled in relegation, others are fighting for European places or the league title, while a select few are merely playing for increased prize money through a slightly higher mid table finishing position.

Does this therefore affect the way you bet and should you factor in both teams motivation for the game?

The curious case of May

We can test this by looking at the record of teams at both ends of the table over the first 30 and final 8 games of the season.

The month of May's results, in particular, appear to be abnormal compared to the previous nine months of the Premier League. Let's look at the data.

Figures hint at a slight fall-off in performance for the league’s best teams

From 2002 to 2013, shots on target increase by 5% in May from the previous August and there were 7% more goals and 11% fewer fouls.

The decreased rate of fouling, hints at a less combative approach overall, although this does not disqualify matches where both teams will be desperate to secure a win.

The desire for points and the ability to deliver wins should be strongest at the top of the table. Individual player motivation to keep their places in the league’s top squads will also be a factor.

A third of Premier League titles since 2002/03 have been decided by two points or fewer and the final participation place in the following season’s Champions League has gone down to a margin of three points or fewer 50% of the time.

Since 2002/03 the top five sides (after 30 matches) had accrued a combined average of 2.01 points per game.

However, in the remaining eight matches, this rate fell to 1.95 points per game, with 55% of these sides faring worse in the final run in.

Interestingly these figures hint at a slight fall-off in performance for the league’s best teams at a time when points become vitally important for title hopes or European qualification.

In comparison, those sides who reach 30 games and find themselves in one of the three relegation spots since 2002/03 have averaged 0.8 points per game, and of these around a third managed to avoid the drop in May.

60% of these struggling teams improved their ability to win points over the final eight matches.

As a group they upped their production to just over one point a game and nearly 60% of these struggling teams improved their ability to win points over the final eight matches.

Serie A – It's all about the draw

Historically motivational related results, late in a campaign, occur more regularly in Serie A.

Draws are difficult to predict and a side, who records lots of draws one season often return to more usual, levels subsequently. The average implied probability for a draw in Serie A over the last nine completed seasons is around 0.28.

However, many late season games have draws priced at much shorter odds. This strongly implies that for a variety of reasons, a draw is more likely to occur.

Of the 20 shortest priced draws since 2005/06, a more typical draw price would have led to 6 expected draws, the odds implied 11 would end stalemated, yet in reality 14 ended level, half of them by a 0-0 score line.

So the shortened odds for the draw were justified. Almost exclusively these matches involve two teams who were placed just above the relegation places, where a point each would assist both side’s survival chances.

This data highlights more abnormal results towards the latter eight games of the season compared to the previous 30. Soccer bettors should consider motivation alongside other factors such as form, natural regression or weakened team selection, while Serie A should be judged as a special case, especially where a draw is mutually beneficial.

среда, 1 апреля 2015 г.

The Masters by numbers: 15 Masters trends

Bettors aiming to make a profit at the 2015 Masters should read these 15 Masters golf betting trends which give an insight into the numbers for the previous 78 tournaments.

0 - Avoid the par 3 contest

The par 3 contest was first introduced in 1960 and is traditionally played on the Wednesday before the tournament starts. Interestingly for bettors no par 3-contest winner has also won the Masters in the same year. Can someone break the duck in 2015?

1 – Anchor Putter

In 2013 Adam Scott (21.110) became the first player to win the Masters using a belly or broom-handle putter.

1 – Don’t expect a rookie to win

Only one rookie has ever won the Masters – Fuzzy Zoeller. The American beat the odds in 1979, and despite Australian Jason Day (14.370) finishing 2nd in 2011, it appears that course knowledge has a pivotal bearing on performance at Augusta. Shane Lowry can be backed at 111.910 to become the first since 1979.

3 – Tough to defend title

Only Jack Nicklaus (1965, 1966), Tiger Woods (2001, 2002) and Nick Faldo (1989,1990) have defended their Masters title the following year since 1934. This highlights the difficulty Bubba Watson will face when he begins his defence, but odds of 11.240 make him the second favourite.

4 – Avoid the early leader

Just four champions – Craig Wood (1941), Arnold Palmer (1960), Jack Nicklaus (1972) and Ray Floyd (1976) – have led for all four rounds of the Masters.

5 – Beware the watery graves

Five holes – 11, 12, 13, 15 & 16 – on Augusta’s back nine have water waiting to trap an errant shot. Many Masters hopefuls have met a watery end during the 78 years of action at Augusta. (13) was the score carded by Tom Weiskopf on the par-3 12th hole in the 1980 Masters.

7 – Consider the Left-handers

Left-handers have won only nine major tournaments. However, they have won seven of the last 12 green jackets. Could Phil Mickelson (27.990) or Bubba Watson claim another major win?

12 – Biggest winning margin

Twelve was the biggest winning margin set by Tiger Woods when he won his first Masters back in 1997. Woods’ four-day score is also a record at 270.

14 – Make the cut 12 months earlier

Since the 2000 Masters every winner has made the cut in the year immediately preceding their victory. Does this eliminate Phil Mickelson and Sergio Garcia (45.380) who struggled 12 months ago?

15 – Settled by a playoff

The Masters has gone to a playoff on 15 occasions. Two of the previous three Masters have been decided by a playoff – Scott beating Angel Cabrera (85.660) in 2013, while Bubba Watson beat Louis Oosthuizen (60.510) in 2012.

16 – Can a European break the duck

No European has won the Masters since Jose-Maria Olazabal 16 years ago. Will it be 17 years without a European green jacket winner? Rory McIlroy goes in as the favourite, while Henrik Stenson (17.650) and Justin Rose (37.280) join him amongst the top of the Masters winner odds.

24 – Hole in one

There have been 24 hole-in-ones recorded at the Masters. Interestingly 15 of these have come at hole 16, a par 3 of 170 yards. In 2013 Jamie Donaldson (136.450) became only the fifth player to achieve the feat on hole six in the event’s 78-year history.

Interested in how bettors and bookmakers underweight rare events? Click here to read about the infamous Hole In One Gang who in 1991 made a profit from taking advantage of ill informed bookmakers on the probability of a hole-in-one at a tournament.

25-39 – Age trend

Every Masters winner this century was aged between 25 and 39, with those in their 30′s enjoying the most success – Bubba Watson was 35 last year.

That range covers most of the leading candidates, and for the first time Rory McIlroy - who turned 25 in May.

46 – Over the hill at 40

At the tender age of 46, Jack Nicklaus became the oldest winner of the Masters in 1986 – no one this century has won the masters in their 40′s.

63 & 75 – One round doesn’t win or ruin your chances

63 is the joint Augusta course round record set by Nick Price in 1986 and Greg Norman in 1996 – but neither man went on to win.

75 is the highest first-round score of an eventual winner, when Craig Stadler carded it in 1982.

Click here for the latest 2015 Masters odds.

Why the usual suspects dominate the UCL knockout stage

This Champions League betting article looks at recent trends that help predict the Champions League winner, and why teams from England, Spain, Germany and Italy tend to dominate the UCL knockout stage.

The Champions League is dominated by the major soccer nations. You have to go back 11 tournaments to find a winner, in Porto, who didn’t hail from Spain, England, Italy, or Germany.

In the past decade domestic success 12 months earlier hasn’t guaranteed Champions League victory. Since Porto’s win, six of the subsequent ten winners failed to win their domestic league the previous season.

Since the tournaments expansion a defeat in the group stage is not fatal, and the two-legged nature of knockout games allows a team to recover from a single poor performance.

Winning your Champions League group

Although past events aren’t perfect indicators of future performance, a side which does particularly well in the group stage has gone on to lift the trophy frequently.

In the ten competitions since Porto’s win, just Liverpool, the following year and another Mourinho managed team in Inter in 2009/10 have lifted the trophy when qualifying from the group stages as a runner up.

17 of the last 20 finalists topped their group, so although the group phase only consists of six matches per team, it does appear to be sufficient in identifying the stronger teams.

Over the last decade Spain, England, Italy, followed by Germany have provided the winners, the bulk of which have topped their group with an average of 13 points.

Predicting the Champions League winner

This year English clubs have been eliminated prior to the Quarter-final stage and the teams represented instead are Monaco, Porto and PSG. History suggests none of these teams will progress to the final.

Juventus have the pedigree, but only finished runners-up in Group A, which leaves Atletico, Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich as the four sides fitting the profile of recent successful teams – the odds at Pinnacle Sports to win the Champions League represent this.

Interestingly Juventus’ 9.650 could be down to a perceived easy last eight draw against Monaco, while Atletico’s longer price at 16.000 appears to factor in a difficult meeting with Real Madrid.

Historical profiling can be a fast way to spot betting opportunities but it merely confirms obvious preferences. It's no surprise to see Bayern Munich 3.050 and Barcelona 3.390 heading the betting markets.

To enhance your chances of predicting this year's Champions League winner you can go further and look at goal based data - performed particularly in this season’s top matches against similar levels of opposition.

Interlocking form to predict game outcomes

Although currently favourites to lift the trophy, Bayern Munich have yet to meet a Spanish rival, but they did play Manchester City twice in the group fixtures. City then went on to face Barcelona in the last 16.

We can therefore use the two favourites relative performances against a common opponent – Man City.

Similar interlocking form lines exist for all 32 sides which took part in the group phase, not only from games played in the Champions League, but also from domestic competition.

Therefore, an appraisal of the relative strengths of each team remaining in the Champions League can be made by comparing an objective rating, such as goal difference in competitive matches against the other 31 teams, which competed in the group phases.

Using this rating approach of interlocking form lines, the eight Quarter-finalists are all found in the top ten sides from this year’s Champions League.

Chelsea, of the already eliminated teams, are second in the ratings, buoyed by a fine domestic record against their fellow Champions League participants and Leverkusen are 5th.

Ranking prior to the QF stage of the Champions League

Team

Goal Rating

Bayern Munich

1.6

Atletico Madrid

1.3

Barcelona

1.2

Real Madrid

1.1

Porto

1.0

Monaco

0.9

Juventus

0.8

PSG

0.7

Very little separates the last eight sides based on their performance in the Champions League and against other domestic opponents who participated.

The clear exception is Bayern Munich (1.671) who are upwards of three tenths of a goal superior to their nearest rivals and would appear to be worthy favourites, especially facing an inexperienced Porto (5.800) side in the last eight.

Real Madrid’s (2.600) perfect qualifying record is tarnished by an unimpressive domestic record against Atletico (2.990). And Real’s city rivals would appear to present a formidable obstacle at the quarter final stage.

Barcelona (1.925) appear to play the weakest of the survivors in PSG (4.279), who are without key players in the first leg through suspension.

The final tie between Juventus (1.478) and Monaco (9.280) may be closer, based on collateral form, than the strong preference shown to the Italian team would appear to indicate.

This article has highlighted a number of historical betting trends that have been evident in teams winning the Champions League, and explained a concept to determine each team's relative strength.

Based on performance, both domestically against quality opposition and in the Champions League, only Bayern standout as superior of the remaining eight teams.

Click here to see the latest Champions League odds.

вторник, 31 марта 2015 г.

Assessing different clay court conditions and strong returners on clay

This clay court tennis betting strategy article focuses on the differing court conditions across the schedule, and the records of strong return players on clay, to identify betting opportunities.

With the ATP & WTA tennis schedule moving from hard court to clay court tennis bettors should be aware of the differences.

Clay events have very different characteristics to the harder surfaces, with fewer service holds, fewer aces and generally much longer rallies. Clay matches are arguably a stronger test of a player’s fitness level than other surfaces.

The table below illustrates the significant difference in service hold percentage and aces per game between clay courts and other surfaces:

Surface

2 Year mean service hold %

2 Year mean aces per game

ATP

Clay

75.7

0.35

Hard

79.4

0.55

Indoor Hard

80.8

0.58

Grass

83.6

0.65

WTA

Clay

61.9

0.19

Hard

63.8

0.25

Indoor Hard

63.1

0.26

Grass

69.6

0.31

With the difference so evident in the table above, the following table highlights the court speed of each ATP & WTA event for the clay court schedule in 2015 (sorted from fast to slow):

ATP Tournament

понедельник, 30 марта 2015 г.

Factors to consider before betting the biggest fight in history

On May 2nd Floyd Mayweather fights Manny Pacquiao in the biggest fight in boxing history. This Mayweather vs. Pacquiao betting preview looks at factors to consider before betting, the odds, and our unique promotions.

Tale of the tape

Floyd Mayweather and Filipino, Manny Pacquiao are considered the best two fighters of their generation.

After years of talking the mega fight will finally see Floyd put his WBC and WBA welterweight titles on the line against Pacquiao's WBO at the MGM Grand.

Below are the head-to-head stats for each fighter:

Coming into the fight Pacquiao beat Chris Algieri on a unanimous points decision in November, but lost twice in 2013 - to Timothy Bradley and Juan Manuel Marquez.

Mayweather meanwhile, whose unbeaten record stretches back to 1996, has won his past five bouts on points, most recently a rematch with Marcos Maidana in September.

Where the fight could be won and lost

Every boxing fan and bettor will have an opinion on where the fight could be won and lost. We’ve broken down a couple of key areas to see if there is an advantage for either fighter.

Does Mayweather struggle against Southpaw fighters?

Ever since Mayweather was originally accused of ‘ducking’ a fight with Pacquiao, there has been a stigma surrounding his ability to fight against southpaws.

Promoter Bob Arum was quoted, "I promoted the guy for 10 years, and I know how difficult it was to get him in the ring with any southpaw."

The reason behind the assumption is that Floyd pins his chin against his left shoulder and often stands with his front turned to his right.

This works well against an orthodox fighter as the power punches come from his right towards his left shoulder, which guards his chin.

The potential problem comes when the power punch comes from his left. Despite mastering the art of rolling to his right and then countering, his ageing years could make him more vulnerable.

However, he has been training with Zab Judah, so you can expect him to enter the ring with a plan.

Southpaw vs. Orthodox

Like other bouts that have seen a southpaw take-on an orthodox fighter the cross - Pacquiao’s straight left and Mayweather’s straight right – could be key in determining the fight.

The Pac Man is more powerful, but Floyd is more accurate, and more flexible in the way he throws it. The Filipino has also been known to overcommit as he aims to force the pace, which could leave him open to a counterpunch.

Mayweather is renowned for his great movement, and given Pacquiao struggled to tag good movers in the past - Timothy Bradley and Chris Algieri – he will need to keep Floyd guessing by throwing a number of feints.

Pacquiao’s Angles

The peculiar angles Pacquiao throws his punches from could cause problems for Floyd, like it has done for all of his other opponents. It didn’t affect Marquez recently, but that was his fourth attempt.

Determining how long it will take Mayweather to adjust could determine which way you bet.

Work rate vs. Accuracy

Judging accurately how each fighter's style will affect the other will help picking a winner.

Pacquiao is renowned for his relentless pressure, while Mayweather is revered for his passive stick and move style. Both are effective, but which will be more successful in this fight?

Many think Pac Man can't win on points, but if the judges favour work rate over accuracy, Floyd could be in trouble.

Manny will throw six punches to land one, while Floyd will be content to throw one or two more accurate punches. If he fails to tag Pacquiao, he could struggle to pick up points, making the 4.550 odds for Pacquiao to win on the judge's scorecard more promising.

Also will the Filipino’s work rate affect Mayweather like it did against Maidana in their rematch? Floyd resorted to excessive clinching on that night to neutralise Maidana's aggression, can he employ these tactics against a faster, fitter Pac Man?

Power

Power is a leveller in most fights. Mayweather may have the single punch speed advantage, but Pacquiao has the power.

The Pac Man has 38 knockouts in his 57 fights, compared to Mayweather's 26 in 47. Pacquiao is not necessarily a heavy puncher but he has a quick hard punch, which has dropped a number of elite fighters in the past.

However since his TKO win against Miguel Cotto in 2009, the Filipino hasn’t knocked out any of his 9 opponents, while Mayweather's last six fights have gone to the judges scorecard.

The Over/Under at Pinnacle Sports sees 11.5 rounds as the marker. Odds of 1.332 suggest the bookies strongly believe the fight will last the distance.

Mayweather to win on points at Pinnacle Sports is available at 1.840, which implies a 54.35% chance of happening.

Who has the best chin?

Both fighters’ chins have been tested throughout their careers, but Mayweather has yet to be knocked down.

In comparison Pacquiao has been knocked out three times, two of which came over 15 years ago, while the most recent was in 2012 at the hands of Mexican great, Juan Manual Marquez.

Mayweather undoubtedly has a solid chin, and following his knockout defeat against Marquez the Pac Man could be more vulnerable than ever.

Odds at pinnacle Sports give Floyd (6.960) a 14.37% chance of winning by KO, TKO or DQ, while Pacquiao is slightly shorter at 6.150.

Who wins if it turns into a war?

Pacquiao will certainly look to make this a war and drag Mayweather with him, much like Maidana did.

If it does turn in to a toe-to-toe brawl, Manny will be favoured given he has much more experience in this situation. Of course Mayweather will be aware of this and should be too clever to be drawn in.

Can either adjust their style?

It's one thing having a plan before the fight, but if things go wrong, boxers must adapt their style. Who if either, is best equipped to do this?

Pacquiao has fought on the front foot all of his career and has rarely had to make adjustments because his non-stop aggression and speed was enough to beat most.

However when facing boxers who have made him adjust, he has struggled – think Marques and Bradley.

Mayweather has shown the ability to make adjustments during a fight – against Zab Judah for instance.

What the odds say

Odds of 2.660 at Pinnacle Sports make Pacquiao the underdog, a position that he hasn’t been in since the Oscar De La Hoya fight in 2008.

Mayweather meanwhile is currently at 1.540 to remain undefeated. He opened at 1.498 this time, but when Pinnacle Sports offered odds back in 2012 ahead of a potential fight he opened at 1.529, which shows little has happened in the three years since, to change the bookmakers' opinion.

The draw can be backed at 17.00, and with the fight so lucrative it would almost certainly result in Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2.

The biggest fight gets the biggest promotion at Pinnacle Sports

The Mayweather vs. Pacquiao fight is expected to generate in the region of £162m, making it the most lucrative in boxing history.

To celebrate Pinnacle Sports are offering a number of unique boxing promotions:

Boxing bettors may me split as to who will win between Mayweather and Pacquiao but one thing is guaranteed Pinnacle Sports will be offering the best odds, biggest limits and live betting come the first bell on May 2nd.

Click here to see the latest Mayweather vs. Pacquiao odds.

пятница, 27 марта 2015 г.

BNP Paribas Open Betting: Mannarino can test Murray in desert battle

Mannarino can make life tough for Murray on Wednesday

Andy Murray looks to try and book his place in the last eight at Indian Wells on Wednesday and Sean Calvert expects the Scot to have a tricky time of it against Adrian Mannarino.

There was disappointment and frustration in the desert on Tuesday when one of my wagers fell by a single game and the other fell apart after a decent start.

Michael Berrer only needed to hold serve to land the overs against Gilles Simon after saving a bunch of match points previously, but he was broken easily by the Frenchman.

And Roberto Bautista-Agut took the opener against Jack Sock before fading badly against the portly American, who goes on to face Roger Federer tonight.

Andy Murray's chances of easing into the quarter finals today look very good indeed going on his records against left-handers and Frenchmen.

The former Wimbledon champion has only ever lost to three lefties not named Rafael Nadal (Donald Young, Fernando Verdasco and Thomaz Bellucci) and his overall record reads 60-18 - or 55-3 if you discount Rafa.

Against Frenchmen Murray is 71-15 and he's never lost to a left-hander from across the Channel so far in his career at main level.

So, that's what Adrian Mannarino is up against in his first ever match in the last-16 of a Masters 1000 event.

The pair have never met, but it's perhaps a good time for Mannarino to face Murray for the first time at a tournament that is not easy for any of the players in the wildly varying conditions.

Mannarino is having the best season of his career and much of that can be credited to Eric Prodon, who has instilled a better work ethic into the formerly lazy Frenchman.

The 26-year-old will rise to a worst of a career high 31 in next week's rankings and the 11am local time (6pm UK) probably won't be to Murray's liking, although it is set to be a little cooler on Wednesday.

Mannarino is playing with a lot of confidence at the moment and the +5.5 games on him appeals here at 1.910/11, with the Frenchman having lost only twice by that margin or more in a best of three since the French Open last spring.

Having never played each other before the 7-5 correct score in set one to Murray at 13.012/1 appeals as a big priced punt, with the Scot not really knowing what to expect from his opponent.

Interestingly, Murray has never won a match at Indian Wells against a leftie in straight sets, with two losses from four matches (Young and Nadal) and two final set wins (Jiri Vesely and Jurgen Melzer).

Elsewhere on Wednesday I fancy taking on Nadal to some degree with Simon, who having played a leftie yesterday, should be in the zone to have another crack at the Spaniard.

Gillou played pretty well for the most part against Berrer in what should have been a trickier match than it turned out to be, while Nadal was really poor despite the scoreline of his win over Donald Young. Rafa and The Don were both miles below their respective bests and a repeat from the Spaniard today may see Simon win, but a safer wager is the Handicap (betting with the Sportsbook).

The Frenchman played some great, aggressive tennis against Rafa when they met on clay in Rome last year and he's always been competitive in their best-of-three set matches.

Conditions here do suit Rafa and he has to be a good favourite tonight, but he has only won one match against a top-20 opponent since the French Open last year and he'll need a big improvement to win by five games.

So, the +4.5 game handicap wager on Simon looks the best of the rest at around 1.9420/21.

Recommended Bets
Back to lay Murray to win set one 7-5 at 13.012/1
Back Mannarino +5.5 games at 1.910/11
Back Simon +4.5 games @ 1.910/11

четверг, 26 марта 2015 г.

Premier League in Numbers: How the markets stand as the run-in approaches

19... Diego Costa shows us how many league goals he has

With an international break this week our resident Premier League previewer Mike Norman - who has netted 13 winners from his last 16 selections in his 3pms column - is a little bored, so we asked him to take a look at the table and dazzle us with some numbers...

1...

The position Chelsea occupy in the Premier League table as we enter the run-in. Perhaps a more significant number however is six, the amount of points by which the Blues lead Manchester City with just nine games to go (the chasers only have eight games to play).

Jose Mourinho's men have been matched at a high of 4.47/2 in the Premier League Winner market but you won't get any higher than 1.091/11 currently.

2...

The number of league wins Leicester City have achieved since 'that' win. A 5-3 victory over Manchester United way back in September resulted in Nigel Pearson's men being matched at 8.415/2 in the Relegation market, and at 44.043/1 in the Rock Bottom market, but just two wins in 24 outings since has the Foxes sitting bottom of the table, three points behind QPR and six points from safety.

As Michael Lintorn details here, Leicester look destined to finish the season exactly where they are now, but remarkably they aren't even favuorites to do so. That honour goes to QPR, 2.166/5; the Foxes can be backed at 2.546/4 to finish bottom.

4...

The number of league wins Sunderland have achieved all season, no club in the Premier League has recorded fewer. The Black Cats took the drastic action of sacking Gus Poyet last week and replaced him with veteran manager Dick Advocaat - the Dutchman's first game in charge resulting in a loss, without scoring, at out-of-form West Ham.

Sunderland have struggled for goals all season and it's hard to see that changing, so sitting just one point above the drop zone you can certainly see some value in backing them at 2.68/5 to be relegated. But don't do that! This author thinks Leicester are certainties for the drop, so back Advocaat's men at 3.39/4 with Pearson's men in the Relegation Double market.

6...

The position in the the table that will claim the last Europa League qualifying spot. It might not be the most desirable place to finish in the Premier League but while Liverpool and Tottenham still chase an unlikely Top 4 Finish the chances are that one, or both, will finish in the top six, and in doing so deny Southampton European football next season.

The Saints are the side that will perhaps be delighted to end a terrific campaign sixth (or better) and they can be backed at 1.684/6 - from a high of 28.027/1 - to claim a Top 6 Finish; Liverpool are available to back at 1.21/5, and Spurs at 1.774/5.

10...

The last position that allows a club to brag about finishing in the top half of the Premier League. We know seven of the clubs that will finish there but who will be the other three?

Swansea (43 points and available to back at 1.132/15 in the Top 10 Finish market), West Ham (42pts, 1.222/9), and Stoke (42pts, 1.282/7) are in the box seats currently, but in-form Crystal Palace, (36pts, 5.69/2), inconsistent Newcastle (35pts, 6.25/1), and improving Everton (34pts, 6.411/2) are all waiting in the slipstream.

19...

The number of goals scored by the Premier League's lowest scoring team, Aston Villa. But despite a weekend loss to Swansea, Villa appear to be on an upward curve under new boss Tim Sherwood.

Four goals at Sunderland and four in two games against West Brom suggest Villa are starting to find their feet in front of goal while the Black Cats - currently on 23 league goals - have netted just once in their last seven outings. At 4.84/1 to back then, Sunderland look a spot of value in the Team To Score Least Goals market; Villa are the strong favourites at 1.222/9.

And staying with 19...

Is also the number of Premier League goals scored by this season's leading goalscorers Diego Costa and Harry Kane.

The latter is in blistering form however, and having been matched at Betfair's ceiling price of 1000.0n/a in the Top Goalscorer market the Spurs hitman is now available to back at just 2.68/5. Costa can be backed at 3.185/40, and Sergio Aguero (17 goals) is trading at 4.1n/a.

62...

The number of goals scored by Manchester City, the highest scoring side in the Premier League. Chelsea have one more game to play than City and have 61 goals to their name, while just behind Arsenal have 58 goals.

All three sides are capable of scoring for fun, but with the Gunners in easily the best form of the trio do they represent a bit of value at 5.14/1 in the Team To Score Most Goals market? Chelsea, 2.0811/10, and City, 2.1411/10, head the market in what is now a three-horse race.

13,474...

The amount of times we've been told in the last week that the Premier League isn't one of the greatest competitions in the world. We're not about to increase that number by one.

BNP Paribas Open Betting: Isner to continue winning streak over Anderson

Isner can win the big-serving battle with Anderson today

Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic are both in action on Monday at Indian Wells and Sean Calvert foresees contrasting fortunes for the Australian Open finalists in their third round matches today...

After another up and down day at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden on Sunday the men's third round begins on Monday, with Andy Murray among those in action on day five.

Stevie Johnson landed my headline tip of the day yesterday with a straight sets win over Ivo Karlovic at a nice price, but prior to that Simone Bolelli was flat as a pancake in a weak two set loss to Milos Raonic.

My main outright bet Stan Wawrinka threw in a shocker of a performance in sets one and three to lose to Robin Haase - a man who hadn't won a single match in 2015 coming into this tournament.

Furthermore, Haase had a 2-5 record at Indian Wells and a 0-6 record against Wawrinka, although I did say yesterday that the overs would be a good bet, with Stan usually slow to start in tournaments.

I didn't think it would be that slow though and Haase - as well as he played - didn't need to do too much to win the last few games of the match, with Stan committing the cardinal sin against Haase of failing to ask the choky Dutchman to serve either set out.

Today's schedule looks to offer some decent opportunities and for those happy to stay up until about 3.30am there's a chance to back Novak Djokovic to thrash Albert Ramos.

I can't see anything in the game of Ramos that will allow him to win more than a couple of games here and the 6-0 set is a distinct possibility if prices arrive on that market.

Novak has been involved in six 6-1 sets in his last half dozen matches at Indian Wells and with the largely weaponless Ramos as his opponent today the 5.59/2 about the Serb winning it by that score is well worth a back-to-lay wager.

There have been reports of Djokovic suffering with a "minor foot issue", but assuming that's all it is he should win this very comfortably and the under 17.5 games looks highly likely too at 1.9520/21.

As for Djokovic's beaten opponent in the Australian Open final, Murray faces a tricky task against Philipp Kohlschreiber, who has given the Scot plenty of problems in slow conditions in the past.

The German thrashed Murray on clay a few years ago in Monte Carlo and should have beaten him in Paris last season, but ended up losing in five, so I'm not too sure why Andy is a 1.162/13 shot here in a tournament he rarely plays well at.

Kohlschreiber has had a poor season so far, but he has been suffering with a few ailments and he looked in good nick in round one against Tim Smyczek.

The +4.5 games on the German at 2.111/10 and over 20.5 total games both appeal here, as does the +1.5 sets at 2.6213/8.

Murray hasn't exactly been Mr Consistency this season, with abysmal performances lately against Borna Coric and Gilles Simon and 1.162/13 looks a shocking price today.

I've talked a lot about John Isner in the build-up to this tournament and it was no real surprise to see him shake off the poor form of the early season and play very well in round one against Jurgen Melzer.

His transformation when he reaches Palm Springs is always remarkable and he looks decent value to get the better of Kevin Anderson in a battle of two players both well suited to conditions at Indian Wells.

Isner leads the career series 7-3 and as he plays better here than anywhere else (he also beat Anderson here in 2010) the 1.9110/11 about him recording a sixth straight win over the South African looks decent.

Recommended Bets
Back to lay Djokovic to win set one 6-1 at 5.59/2
Back Kohlschreiber +4.5 games to beat Murray at 2.111/10
Back Isner to beat Anderson at 1.9110/11

BNP Paribas Open Betting: Back Murray to start fast in Djokovic semi

Can Murray start well against Djokovic on Saturday?

The semi-finals of the BNP Paribas Open are in play on Saturday, with Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic going to head-to-head again, and Sean Calvert fancies an odds-against shot today...

Friday's wager never had a chance of success after a handful of games played by Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych at Indian Wells revealed an in-form Fed and a woeful Berdy.

The Swiss maestro handed out a second set bagel in a 6-3, 6-0 thrashing that few could have predicted and he moves forward to face Milos Raonic in today's second semi.

Raonic saved several match points to stave off a straight sets defeat against Rafa Nadal to emerge the winner of a near-three-hour marathon.

We start at 6pm UK time on Saturday and that in itself could provide an opportunity to side with Andy Murray to start out fast against Novak Djokovic in their 25th career meeting.

Djokovic has played all of his matches at night so far this week and this is one venue on the tour where conditions are totally different later in the day than earlier and it may take the Serb some time to adjust.

We've seen this many times at tournaments that have day and night matches and Murray has played all of his matches in the day and most at 11am local time, which is when the pair clash on Saturday.

Djokovic also hasn't played since Wednesday after his quarter-final opponent Bernard Tomic withdrew and it makes sense to side with Murray early here, with the Scot starting strongly in his matches this week.

With the slight exception of the Adrian Mannarino match Murray has looked on it from the word go and there's enough in this to take a chance on him at a tempting 3.02/1.

Murray will also be very keen to get a win over Djokovic after the shambolic way that he folded against the Serb in the Australian Open final in January when he was affected by his opponent's antics across the net.

There might also be some needle in this one because of that and the resulting comments from Murray and in a best-of-three battle there will be less emphasis on stamina.

Djokovic has to be a worthy favourite, having won the last six in a row against Murray on outdoor hard and eight of the last nine on all surfaces.

Indeed, Murray's last win over the Serb was that Wimbledon title win of 2013 and he's certainly due one, but with that record I prefer the set one wager rather than the outright win at around 3.7511/4.

The world number one's performances this week are hard to evaluate, with a fine start over Marcos Baghdatis being followed by a very scratchy showing against Albert Ramos in which he was broken twice by the limited Spaniard.

Then came a tough win over the dangerous John Isner in a match that could easily have gone to a decider and I don't think the withdrawal of Tomic has really helped him, as this is one venue that takes some getting used to.

Murray was very good indeed against an opponent that's perfect for him in Feli Lopez and that match will have given him confidence that I expect him to take into this one - for a set at least.

Recommended Bet
Back Murray to win set one at 3.02/1

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Pinnacle	Pinnacle Sports site
BWIN	Bwin site
Unibet	Unibet site

четверг, 14 мая 2015 г.

среда, 22 апреля 2015 г.

пятница, 17 апреля 2015 г.

четверг, 16 апреля 2015 г.

четверг, 9 апреля 2015 г.

среда, 1 апреля 2015 г.

вторник, 31 марта 2015 г.

понедельник, 30 марта 2015 г.

пятница, 27 марта 2015 г.

четверг, 26 марта 2015 г.

четверг, 14 мая 2015 г.

среда, 22 апреля 2015 г.

пятница, 17 апреля 2015 г.

четверг, 16 апреля 2015 г.

четверг, 9 апреля 2015 г.

среда, 1 апреля 2015 г.

вторник, 31 марта 2015 г.

понедельник, 30 марта 2015 г.

пятница, 27 марта 2015 г.

четверг, 26 марта 2015 г.