Are soccer games more unpredictable towards the end of the season?

It's said that as the soccer season draws to an end, the games become more unpredictable. To help your soccer betting this article looks at the influence of motivation towards the end of the campaign, and analyses the data to see if games actually become more unpredictable towards the end of the season?

The question of motivation is difficult to analyse. A soccer match lasts 90 minutes and any apparent sub-par performance can be marked as a side lacking effort, when it's merely variation.

At the end of a season motivations throughout the league differ. Certain teams are embroiled in relegation, others are fighting for European places or the league title, while a select few are merely playing for increased prize money through a slightly higher mid table finishing position.

Does this therefore affect the way you bet and should you factor in both teams motivation for the game?

The curious case of May

We can test this by looking at the record of teams at both ends of the table over the first 30 and final 8 games of the season.

The month of May's results, in particular, appear to be abnormal compared to the previous nine months of the Premier League. Let's look at the data.

Figures hint at a slight fall-off in performance for the league’s best teams

From 2002 to 2013, shots on target increase by 5% in May from the previous August and there were 7% more goals and 11% fewer fouls.

The decreased rate of fouling, hints at a less combative approach overall, although this does not disqualify matches where both teams will be desperate to secure a win.

The desire for points and the ability to deliver wins should be strongest at the top of the table. Individual player motivation to keep their places in the league’s top squads will also be a factor.

A third of Premier League titles since 2002/03 have been decided by two points or fewer and the final participation place in the following season’s Champions League has gone down to a margin of three points or fewer 50% of the time.

Since 2002/03 the top five sides (after 30 matches) had accrued a combined average of 2.01 points per game.

However, in the remaining eight matches, this rate fell to 1.95 points per game, with 55% of these sides faring worse in the final run in.

Interestingly these figures hint at a slight fall-off in performance for the league’s best teams at a time when points become vitally important for title hopes or European qualification.

In comparison, those sides who reach 30 games and find themselves in one of the three relegation spots since 2002/03 have averaged 0.8 points per game, and of these around a third managed to avoid the drop in May.

60% of these struggling teams improved their ability to win points over the final eight matches.

As a group they upped their production to just over one point a game and nearly 60% of these struggling teams improved their ability to win points over the final eight matches.

Serie A – It's all about the draw

Historically motivational related results, late in a campaign, occur more regularly in Serie A.

Draws are difficult to predict and a side, who records lots of draws one season often return to more usual, levels subsequently. The average implied probability for a draw in Serie A over the last nine completed seasons is around 0.28.

However, many late season games have draws priced at much shorter odds. This strongly implies that for a variety of reasons, a draw is more likely to occur.

Of the 20 shortest priced draws since 2005/06, a more typical draw price would have led to 6 expected draws, the odds implied 11 would end stalemated, yet in reality 14 ended level, half of them by a 0-0 score line.

So the shortened odds for the draw were justified. Almost exclusively these matches involve two teams who were placed just above the relegation places, where a point each would assist both side’s survival chances.

This data highlights more abnormal results towards the latter eight games of the season compared to the previous 30. Soccer bettors should consider motivation alongside other factors such as form, natural regression or weakened team selection, while Serie A should be judged as a special case, especially where a draw is mutually beneficial.