When young players breakthrough onto the main ATP Tour, there is little statistical data on them. This article looks at whether the tennis market can accurately assess a Junior Grand Slam winner’s ability once they start playing ATP main draw matches.
When two elite players go head-to-head it's very rare for either to offer strong statistical value, given there is a plethora of historical data on them to interpret.
Therefore pre-match betting is unlikely to provide bettors with an edge, unless the bookmakers make a big mistake.
However, very young players - who haven’t played on the ATP tour - are far less exposed. Therefore with a lack of statistical data, it's very difficult to price up their matches accurately.
A comparison can be drawn to horse racing. A veteran horse will have raced many times, which will allow bettors to make an accurate assessment of their level, while a two-year-old may have only raced a couple of times, making it very difficult to know both their current level and potential.
In tennis, it's difficult to gauge whether or not young players will be over or underrated by the markets.
As mentioned in previous articles, subjective assertions are generally to be avoided, which is why quantitative statistics are much preferred.
On this basis, an assessment was made for the first ten ATP main draw matches for male Junior Grand Slam winners between 2010-2014. Only matches where a set was completed were included, and all prices used were Pinnacle Sports’ closing prices:
Player
Current Rank
Matches
Win %
P/L
ROI
Tiago Fernandes
2040
0
N/A
0
N/A
Agustin Velotti
314
2
0
-200
-100
Marton Fucsovics
154
4
25
96
24
Jack Sock
45
10
30
-112
-11.2
Jiri Vesely
48
10
20
-623
-62.3
Bjorn Fratangelo
166
0
N/A
0
N/A
Luke Saville (2)
186
6
33.33
-145
-24.17
Oliver Golding
717
3
0
-300
-100
Kimmer Coppejans
150
2
0
-200
-100
Filip Peliwo (2)
337
5
40
423
84.6
Nick Kyrgios
37
10
50
704
70.4
Christian Garin
233
4
25
345
86.25
Gianluigi Quinzi
373
0
N/A
0
N/A
Borna Coric
59
10
50
499
49.9
Alexander Zverev
129
10
40
152
15.2
Andrey Rublev
389
5
40
147
29.4
Noah Rubin
637
2
0
-200
-100
Omar Jasika
444
1
0
-100
-100
Overall
84
32.14
486
5.79
No guarantee of success
There are a number of statistics that should interest tennis bettors. The first is how few Junior Slam winners have actually made a significant breakthrough - just four of the 18 Junior Slam winners from 2010 onwards have achieved a top 100 ranking.
Indeed, the two Juniors who won it twice, Filip Peliwo and Luke Saville, are currently ranked well outside the top 150.
In addition, Oliver Golding, who gave Britons hope for the future with a US Open Junior triumph in 2011, has already retired, having grown disillusioned with the sport.
It's clear to see that Junior success does not guarantee main ATP Tour success, and even carving out a career in the sport is far from a given.
The big four
However, four Junior Slam winners - Nick Kyrgios, Borna Coric, Jack Sock and Jiri Vesely – are currently ranked inside the top 50. Only Vesely, with two wins from his first ten matches at ATP level, had a shocking start to life on the main tour.
Kyrgios and Coric had superb success, both winning half of their first ten matches and recording a huge return on investment.
It's also apparent how experience tended to help these players - all the players with 10 or more main tour appearances are ranked inside the top 150.
On this basis it’s reasonable to assume that these young players learn fast, and being from a major nation, where players frequently benefit from wild cards to big events is beneficial.
Tennis betting takeaway
Overall, these Junior Grand Slam winners recorded a solid 5.790% return on investment from 84 main tour matches. This hints that these players are slightly under-rated by the market, albeit from a relatively small sample.
With current speculation about a ‘changing of the guard’, and a great deal of hype surrounding many young players, bettors may be interested in conducting further research to see if these results are replicated over a bigger sample, as it would provide them with a major edge in the tennis betting markets.
Click here to see the latest ATP odds.
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