The FA Cup reaches the semi-final stage at the weekend with underdogs Reading and Aston Villa taking on Arsenal and Liverpool, respectively at Wembley Stadium. This FA Cup semi-final betting preview looks at the odds to see if big favourites Arsenal and Liverpool offer any value?
The cream tends to rise to the top in the FA Cup
Much folklore has developed around the rich history of the competition, most notably the view that the cup is a great leveller, allowing unconsidered teams to surprise their more fancied opponents.
However, the reality is that despite unexpected results are occur, there is no evidence that the minnows derive an extra advantage merely because the match is an FA cup tie.
The gap between the richest Premier League teams and the rest is evident not only over 38 league games, but also in outcomes of recent FA cup competitions.
Since 2000, 13 of the 15 finals have been won by one of the Premier League’s big five sides - Man United, Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal - only Portsmouth and Wigan having broken that streak.
In the last 14 years 78% of semi-finalists have been one of the big five EPL teams
An unseeded draw and the unforgiving nature of knockout football, may occasionally scupper the chances of that year’s best all round side, but since 2000, it has been odds on that at least one finalist will be a member of the top five elite.
In the last 14 years 78% of semi-finalists have been one of the big five teams. So the culmination of this year’s competition would appear typical of the recent past.
Therefore, recent FA cup history, along with league form, strongly favours defending champions Arsenal and Liverpool.
Who will progress to the FA Cup final?
Identifying the most likely finalists is reasonably straightforward, but attaching probabilities to the individual match outcomes to compare these to the odds requires some simple data crunching.
Liverpool’s clash with Aston Villa is the most straightforward as both are Premier League teams. The Reds, after Monday night had a goal difference of +11 from 32 games or an average difference of 0.34 goals per game, compared to a goal difference of -21 from 33 games or -0.64 per game for Villa.
So over the season so far, with no weighting for more recent results, Liverpool average goal difference per game is 0.98 of a goal superior to Villa’s, with neither side enjoying home advantage on Sunday.
Similar calculations using the scoring and conceding rates of both sides at home and away, estimate that Liverpool are around 9 tenths of a goal superior to Villa on neutral turf and using the Poisson distribution and methods described in this linked post, give Liverpool (1.571) a 61% chance of winning in 90 minutes, with Villa’s (6.650) chances at 17% and a draw at 22%.
Reading, of course do not currently play in the Premier League. But teams from the Championship do frequently meet EPL teams in the domestic cups and three teams swap places through relegation and promotion each year.
Using these collateral form lines we can estimate that the best Championship teams are typically as good as the 16th or 17th best Premier League teams.
So we can estimate in terms of goal difference, the current quality gap between Reading and the promotion contenders in the Championship and Arsenal and the teams just above the EPL relegation places.
Arsenal are around 2.4 goals per game superior to Reading at a neutral venue
Arsenal are likely to be around 2.4 goals per game superior to Reading at a neutral venue, which translates to a 85% chance for the Gunners, 4% for the Royals and 11% for a draw. Reading’s odds of 15.750 reflect this, while Arsenal are available at 1.243 on the 1X2 market.
These baseline numbers partly omit situational factors. Liverpool may be a better team now they have a more settled attack since Sturridge’s return from injury, while experience of both Wembley and the big occasion could help to favour Arsenal even more strongly against Reading.
For the Saturday evening game, where Arsenal are clearly superior, total goals tend to increase as the talent gap between the teams widens. However, bettors should remember sides have no real incentive to score lots in a single knockout game. Reading can be backed at +1.5 and 2 on the handicap with Pinnacle Sports.
And similarly, where a team is favoured by around 0.9 of a goal, as Liverpool are against Villa, the average number of total goals scored would usually be an above average 2.7. However, 61% of Villa’s games have had two goals or fewer, this season, including both league encounters with Liverpool. The handicap is set at -1 in favour of Liverpool.
Click here to see the latest FA Cup semi-final odds.
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