апреля 2014 ~ Betting is life

среда, 30 апреля 2014 г.

Germany favourites to top Group G

By Michael Gales Apr 29, 2014

Germany are favourites to qualify from a tough World Cup Group G which contains Portugal, USA and Ghana. Read this 2014 World Cup Group G betting preview for an insight into who is best placed to qualify for the knockout stage.

Germany: Should be too strong for Group G opponents

Fifa Ranking: 2nd

Best Finish: Winners (1954, 1974 & 1990)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,031^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 6.620*

Three-time winners Germany are the 1.100* favourites to qualify from Group C but are only third favourites to win the tournament outright with odds of 6.620*. This may have something to do with their past performances in South America; they reached the Quarter-Finals in Chile (1962), and the Second Group Stage in Argentina (1978) however they did reach the final in Mexico 1986 – albeit it not South America, the climate and altitude is similar. Incredibly the Germans have reached seven World Cup finals, the last in 2002.

This 2014 Germany team is blessed with more flair and fluidity than sides of the past, and their attacking play can be terrifying. As a team they have excellent cover in all positions but the array of talent in midfield is their main strength.

One area of weakness however could be in defence. Despite being traditionally solid at the back, they have been vulnerable in qualifying where they conceded seven goals in two qualifiers against Sweden. Another area of concern is upfront – Miroslav Klose is just one goal shy of Ronaldo’s all-time World Cup finals tally, but will be 36 by the time the tournament starts and a reliable replacement has yet to be found.

Manager Joachim Low will see the World Cup as a failure if he doesn’t secure a fourth World Cup win for the Germans, however he has a 68% win ratio that is the best of any German manager.

Low guided Germany through qualification with the only hiccup dropping points in an extraordinary 4-4 draw with Sweden – having led 4-0. They scored an average of 3.6 goals per game – the highest of anyone at the World Cup -, were one of only two teams to score at least two goals per game, and conceded an average of 1 goal per game.

With the conditions so different in South America – the grass is longer and denser, meaning the ball won’t move quickly, while the heat and humidity can be an issue for a team who play with high intensity – Germany’s success will depend on how swiftly they can adapt their game, but the odds at Pinnacle Sports imply a 91% chance of advancing so that question should be answered in the latter stages of the tournament.

Germany’s record against Group G opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Ghana

100%

USA

67%

Portugal

56%

Portugal: Will Ronaldo shine in Brazil?

Fifa Ranking: 5th

Best Finish: 3rd (1966)

Overall Miles to travel: 2,823^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 31.000*

Portugal’s odds of 1.513* to progress out of Group G sees them as the clear second-favourites behind Germany. However their fate will surely lie on the form and fitness of the World Player of The Year, Cristiano Ronaldo. His individual brilliance is the perfect foil for a lack of a top class striker, which has hindered the team since their Semi-Final exit in Euro 2012.

Despite only losing to Russia during qualifying, Portugal finished second in the group meaning they qualified via the play-offs for the second successive World Cup, and it was Ronaldo who scored a brilliant hat-trick to secure a 4-2 aggregate win against Sweden.

Manager Paulo Bento took charge in September 2010 after a successful period in charge of Sporting Lisbon, where he won four domestic cups in six years. One problem facing Bento and his Portugal team however, is the amount of travelling they have to deal with. They have to travel 2,823 miles across their three group games – the second worst of all teams at Brazil. How they deal with this, and their perennial issue of relying so much on one player, could determine how far they progress.

Portugal’s record against Group G opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Germany

11%

Ghana

USA

40%

USA: Can Klinsmann ruin Germany’s chances?

Fifa Ranking: 14th

Best Finish: Semi-Finals (1930)

Overall Miles to travel: 3,482^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 136.00*

The USA are Group G third favourites to qualify for the knockout stages and can be backed at 3.700*. Head coach Jurgen Klinsmann has stated that anything but reaching the knockout stage will be classed as a failure – his World Cup winners medal from 1990 proves he knows what it takes to succeed on the pitch.

They have been in good form recording a national record 16 wins in this calendar year, which included a win against Germany – albeit a weakened side.

Under Klinsmann the USA are the most improved team in the competition moving from 27th in the FIFA World Rankings, to 14th over the past year. They recovered from an opening 2-1 defeat by Honduras in qualifying to finish four points clear at the top of the six-team final group phase, winning all five home matches, though the depth of opposition must temper the value of that success.

Their defence will be an issue however and there is a lack of continuity as Klinsmann seeks out his best team – 37 players were used in qualifying, suggesting an uncertainty in his mind as to the right formation and personnel.

That aside, the biggest threat to the USA will be the local conditions and the travelling they will endure. They have the most distance to travel at 3,482 miles, while they will suffer the 2nd highest average temperatures of anyone at Brazil. How will the logistics and local climate affect their chances of qualifying for the knockout stage?

USA’s record against Group G opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Germany

33%

Ghana

Portugal

40%

Ghana: Will they be the surprise package?

Fifa Ranking: 24th

Best Finish: Quarter-Finals (2010)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,321^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 151.00*

Ghana have qualified for their third World Cup in succession. However having been drawn in a relatively tough group they are the 3.850* underdogs to qualify for the knockout stages.

In 2010 Ghana were in touching distance of becoming the first ever African semi-finalists after Uruguay’s Luis Suarez was sent off for handling on the line in the dying seconds of extra-time. However, Asamoah Gyan missed the spot-kick and Ghana then lost the penalty shootout, but the threat was there.

On paper Ghana are one of the strongest African sides – reaching the semi-finals at each of the last four Africa Cup of Nations. However keeping Andre and Jordan Ayew, Michael Essien and Kevin-Prince Boateng happy will be key to their success. The quartet returned to the setup following a self-imposed exile, which helped the Black Stars qualify – they won five of their six games and then thrashed Egypt 7-3 on aggregate in the play-off game.

During the campaign they scored more goals (25) than any other African nation at an average of 3.31 goals per game. However their odds suggest a repeat of their performance in 2010 is unlikely.

Ghana’s record against Group G opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Germany

USA

100%

Portugal

Click here to see the latest 2014 World Cup futures odds.

Click here to see the latest 2014 World Cup match odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

вторник, 29 апреля 2014 г.

Odds suggest Froch will repeat his victory over Groves

By Calum Ward Apr 28, 2014

Carl Froch is the favourite to repeat his victory over George Groves when the pair go toe-to-toe inside Wembley Stadium on May 31st. With bad blood remaining from their first fight in November 2013, this Froch vs. Groves II betting preview explains how the bettor can find value in boxing rematches through loss aversion, odds movement and the under/over rounds market.

Froch vs. Groves statistics

Carl Froch

Name

George Groves

“The Cobra”

Nickname

“Saint”

Age

Nottingham, UK

Birthplace

London, UK

6ft 1″ (1.85m)

Height

6ft 0″ (1.82m)

74 ” (189cm)

Reach

71.1″ (182cm)

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

32-0-2 (23 wins by KO)

Career Record

19-0-1 (15 wins by KO)

What can the first fight tell us?

Froch 1.575* and Groves 2.540* engaged in a fierce war of words throughout the build-up to their epic clash in November 2013, where Froch retained his WBA and IBF super-middleweight titles after a controversial stoppage by referee Howard Foster in the ninth round.

Groves, the bookmakers’ underdog, had unexpectedly floored Froch in the opening round and was ahead on all three judges’ scorecards going into the ninth (78-73, 76-75 and 76-75), before Froch was awarded the contentious victory. Since then, the two British fighters’ bitter rivalry has intensified further, and although the rematch in May is expected to put their bitter feud to an end, bettors consider how much Froch and Groves learnt about each other from their previous fight.

Loss aversion

In our betting preview before the April 2014 rematch between Manny Pacquiao and Timothy Bradley, we looked at how psychology and in particular regression, can influence the outcome of a boxing rematch. Loss aversion is another feature of rematch psychology, and has particular relevance to Froch vs. Groves II.

Having won the first fight, bettors must now decide how difficult it will be for Froch to remain the aggressor and retain his initiative following a debatable victory. With pride at stake, will the Champion be looking to avoid a knockout defeat and thereby change his boxing style? Arguably there is more to lose from defeat, than there is to gain from victory. What’s more, Groves is certainly being considered a greater threat to Froch’s Championship belts this time around, with Pinnacle Sports’ odds closing at 6.200 before Froch vs. Groves I, to the current 2.540* offering before Froch vs. Groves II.

Odds movement

The final press conference and the weigh-in is the last opportunity that both the media and the public have to see the boxers ahead of their upcoming fight. For the bettor, it is also an opportunity to make a decision on which boxer they think will win and place their bets accordingly. Here’s why:

Fight

Opening Odds Fighter 1

Opening Odds Fighter 2

Closing Odds Fighter 1

Closing Odds Fighter 2

Odds Increase Fighter 1

Odds Increase Fighter 2

Froch Kessler I

3.270

1.275

3.360

1.346

2.75%

5.57%

Froch Kessler II

1.515

3.970

1.632

4.410

7.72%

11.08%

Froch Groves I

1.750

5.650

1.810

6.200

3.43%

18.09%

Pinnacle Sports opened their lines before Froch-Kessler I at Froch 3.270 and Kessler 1.275. The lines closed before the fight at Froch 3.360 (2.75% rise) and Kessler 1.346 (5.57% rise). Similarly, with reference to Froch-Kessler II, the odds increased by 7.72% for Froch.

Focusing more specifically to the upcoming rematch, Froch-Groves I opened with Froch at 1.750 and Groves at 5.250. Following the final press conference on November 22nd (the day before the fight), Froch closed at 1.810 (0.06% rise) and Groves at 6.200 (18.09% rise).

With Groves opening as the underdog again, and the lines susceptible to movement, bettors could make an increased profit by backing their winner after the final press conference.

Could it go the distance this time?

Froch vs. Groves betting will also be available via the over/under market for total rounds. This is a really interesting market for bettors as the previous bout between the two ended in the ninth round.

Froch is the more experienced fighter over 12 rounds, having competed in 23, compared to Groves who has fought in just six fights scheduled for 12 rounds. When selecting from the over/under 9.5 rounds market, bettors should be aware that Froch has won 61% (14 of 23) of these 12 round fights by knockout. Although Groves posts similar stats, winning 67% of his fights by knockout (4 of 6), Froch’s experience could prove decisive.

What happens when Groves and Froch go all 12 rounds? Froch is 6-2 (lost vs. Mikkel Kessler and Andre Ward) whilst Groves is 2-0 (wins vs. James DeGale and Glen Johnson). This would suggest that both Froch and Groves prefer the early finish, due to their aggressive boxing styles.

With the odds suggesting another close fight, bettors should consider – in addition to statistics and records – the impact of factors such as loss aversion and odds movement before selecting the winner of Froch vs. Groves II.

Click here to see the latest Froch vs. Groves II boxing odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Magic: the Gathering betting guide

Magic: the Gathering betting guide

By Pinnacle Sports Apr 28, 2014

The Magic: the Gathering Pro Tour bring the world’s best MtG players together in one of four annual professional tournament stops, where they’ll compete for a share of $250,000 in prizes. This article examines betting opportunities that Pinnacle Sports is providing with MtG markets, and why Magic players should be excited about that relationship.

What is the Magic: the Gathering Pro Tour?

Magic (MtG) is a collectible trading card game created in 1993, the first successful archetype in the genre. Players purchase unique random game cards in packs, then build decks using strategies that use those cards in unison, attempting to make the whole deck greater than the sum of its parts.

The MtG Pro Tour, created in 1996, was a marketing scheme designed to give players aspirations of playing full time, thus increasing player dedication to the game. The gambit worked better than could be expected; the Pro Tour has spawned a worldwide community of over 12 million players, with deep qualification system that spawns local communities. It’s bound to get bigger too, with 20th Century Fox signed on to create a series of films based around the game. MtG has provided the mold from which a plethora of other gaming phenomena have followed.

Interesting markets

Pinnacle Sports has committed to offering odds on every Pro Tour. While constantly on the lookout for additional market ideas, the focus at present is on two groupings, both of which focus on the contents of Pro Tour: Journey Into Nyx’s top 8 composition:

The players – Simply, you can bet yes or no on the question of whether particular competitors will make the top 8. Options include well-known players and popular sub-groups like the top 10 or top 25 ranked players and members of the MtG Pro Tour Hall of Fame. You can also bet over/under on the number of North Americans and Europeans who will do the same.

The cards – By understanding the cards that might be popular in the top 8, you can gain an edge on the market with over/under bets on Swamps, Islands, Mountains, Forests, Plains and Temples.

To look at both strategies, we called on a pair of Pinnacle Sports employees who have both played Magic professionally in the past, Jelger Weigersma of the Netherlands and Italian Antonino DeRosa:

Jelger: “I would be interested in the Basic Land props. It would be cool to see if I can accurately predict the metagame and the best decks. For the player props, I would bet the somewhat underrated players on the big teams.”

Antonino: “When choosing what to bet I would focus on the players with the hot hand. Don’t really go on historic data to find value. Another thing you should focus on is the format they are playing; if a player has historically performed well in the tournament’s format, then you should try to get a good price on him. Finally, before making your bet, try to analyze what team your horse is testing with. Facebook can help with that. With it being so prominent thru the magic community, you can read status updates to make sure players haven’t found a distraction that will make less time for them to test.”

Betting MtG for the Professional

Antonino and Jelger agreed that if betting markets were available in their day, they’d have taken advantage.

Antonino: ”I would have loved the opportunity to bet when I was on the tour. There were many Pro Tours where I thought my team would have the best deck, but I either felt I wasn’t able to play the deck properly or I was too busy going to school or working to be able to test enough. I would have loved to bet on some of my teammates who I knew were playing it well.”

Jelger: “It’d be sweet to be able to use my expertise from testing to make some money and add some excitement to the Pro Tours even if I didn’t do well at the tournament itself.”

For professional players, bragging rights are on the line too. Not only will MtG markets provide the opportunity for pros to back the inevitable trash talk that emerges in any competitive endeavor, but they’ll also eventually sort that pecking order for everyone to see. General consensus on who the best are will be backed by the numbers. For experienced players, inside knowledge could be profitable here as those markets develop. You may want to urge your favorite MtG bloggers to weigh in on our odds.

One other likely potential effect: Markets will give an indication of the metagame (the subset of popular decks). Pro Tour participants can watch Pinnacle Sports markets—which have always proven predictive in other sports—and use the information to determine what other players might play. If a particular player’s odds tighten, it may be because of team belief in their deck. If over/under on a land type moves, it’s likely an indicator of what teams are finding in their tasting. Information is power, both in MtG and sports betting.

Betting MtG for the fan

While some of the benefits to pros detailed above may be obvious, the broader benefits will belong to the fans of the game watching at home. As with fandom in other sports, a personal stake in the results heightens the fan experience. As with betting on other sports, the personal stake will incentivize the fan to delve even deeper in their understanding of the professional game.

“I love MtG,” said DeRosa. “Now that I am retired, watching it at home makes me feel like I am still in the loop. Betting on the Pro Tour can only make your interest in watching it and your enjoyment that much greater. I love the idea of testing for the Pro Tour even though you aren’t qualified just so you can make some prop bets.”

Pinnacle Sports is excited about MtG betting, much in the same way as we are about eSports. We believe these sports are part of the future of sports betting, which is why ours is the first major sports book to support their markets. We also feel that’s an important step in their upwards march toward mainstream recognition. We look forward to continuing to grow our MtG offerings; if you have any suggestions on how to do so, we’d love to hear from you at market-request@pinnaclesports.com.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

суббота, 26 апреля 2014 г.

Will an away goal prove decisive in UCL Semi-Final?

By Mark Taylor Apr 25, 2014

With both 2014 Champions League Semi-Finals finely poised after the first-leg we use Poisson analysis to evaluate how decisive an away goal could be. Are Chelsea at a disadvantage despite a 0-0 draw in Madrid and how advantageous was Real Madrid’s 1-0 home win against Bayern?

Lack of goals follows historic pattern

The UEFA Champions League has almost reached its conclusion following the completion of the semi-final first legs. In keeping with the later stages of many knockout competitions, goals were rare. Since the turn of the century, twenty-one semi-final 1st leg ties have produced under 2.5 total goals and just nine have gone over. Therefore, a goalless stalemate in Chelsea’s visit to Atletico and a narrow single goal victory for Madrid over Bayern wasn’t a departure from long-term trends.

The lack of goals, especially in the Chelsea/ Atltico means an away goal may play a vital role in deciding the ultimate outcome of the tie and therefore, its ominous presence will influence the odds for each side to progress to the final match.

Understanding the away goal

Away goals where the aggregate score is tied apply both at the end of normal time in the 2nd leg and at the conclusion of extra time, should it be required. The fairness of the away goals rule has been questioned in the modern game, most notably by Arsene Wenger following his side’s elimination by Bayern Munich in 2012/13’s round of 16, when away goals broke an aggregate 3-3 score line in favour of the eventual winners.

Fair or not, both sides are aware of the rules and have the same opportunity to prioritize their attempts to claim an away score. Also, in the event of extra time being required in the 2nd leg, the opportunity for the visitors to score an away goal in that period counterbalances the extra thirty minutes of home field advantage received by the home side.

The initial aim of the rule was to encourage attacking play by the away side. However, the flip side of this is that home teams have increasingly become wary of conceding at home in 1st leg ties, so they in turn have become more cautious. This occasionally results in a sterile stalemate, such as Tuesday’s game in the Vicente Calderon, where two counter attacking teams were unwilling to take too many risks.

Poisson analysis of Chelsea vs. Atltico

The UEFA website sent mixed messages to Chelsea fans following their 0-0 draw in Spain. On the one hand, by virtue of avoiding defeat, Jose Mourinho’s side were credited with being handily placed, but later doubt was cast on their prospects because of their failure to profit previously from a 0-0 1st leg score line in Barcelona at the same stage in 2008/09.

In an attempt to explore Chelsea’s chances we can use a Poisson approach to break down the likely match outcomes next Wednesday and track which ones favour Chelsea and which suggest Atltico will progress.

Atltico currently top La Liga, while Chelsea are likely to finish third in the Premiership. Therefore the Spanish team could be legitimately considered as slightly superior of the two teams and a comparison of the respective odds for a home win in each of the two legs appears to confirm this.

Atltico were given around a 49% chance of beating Chelsea on Tuesday, but Chelsea are only around 43% to win the return at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday. However, the fact Petr Cech will miss the 2nd leg and John Terry is also a major doubt, must be considered

A Chelsea victory over the 90 minutes on Wednesday will see them through to the final, but progressing following a 90 minute draw is much less certain. Chelsea’s lack of an away goal ensures Atltico progress in the case of any score draw, while a 0-0 will send the game into extra time.

Therefore, we need to break the overall draw probabilities down into their correct score components and the Poisson distribution is a fine framework to achieve this. The Poisson has been described here, but basically we take the average number of goals we expect Atltico or Chelsea to score on Wednesday night and project probabilities for each side to score a particular number of goals in the match.

Subject to a few slight tweaks, such as the Poisson slightly underestimating the likelihood of drawn games, we can combine the chances of neither team scoring to arrive at the chances of the match ending 0-0 after 90 minutes. We can do likewise for the score draws and we can therefore use these probabilities to see the impact of the goalless 1st leg on Chelsea’s prospects.

Overall, the chance of the match ending level after 90 minutes is around 28%. For two closely matched sides around 30% of these drawn matches will be goalless and this merely keeps Chelsea in the tie via extra time. Nearly 70% of the draws will see Atltico progress, with 1-1 being the most likely outcome.

The disadvantage caused by their failure to score in Spain continues if the tie moves into extra time. Chelsea’s chances of winning after extra time fall to below 30% and a continued stalemate has a 50/50 chance. They do however have the comfort that this time 80% of the draws will be goalless, allowing the game to go to an evenly contested penalty shootout.

We now have a sequence of score line based match events, each with a Poisson derived probability attached, which lead to either Chelsea or Atltico qualifying for the final. Despite avoiding defeat in Spain, Chelsea’s lack of an away goal has handed their opponents an advantage on Wednesday, should the game remain tightly fought.

Chelsea’s possible routes to the final are to win the 2nd leg in 90 minutes (about a 43% chance). Draw 0-0 after 90 minutes and win in extra time (about a 2.5% chance) and a 0-0 stalemate throughout regular and extra time and a win on penalties (around a 1.6% chance). That is enough, once totalled up to give them a 47% overall chance to book their place in Lisbon, with Atltico slightly ahead at 53%.

UEFA.com was correct to temper initial optimism with a later air of caution, even though they based it on a single match played six years ago.

Real hold the advantage after clean sheet in Madrid

The process can be repeated for the other semi-final involving Real Madrid and Bayern Munich. Madrid’s 1-0 victory gives them an edge that Atltico do not possess and in addition, by preventing Bayern from scoring an away goal, they can claim all but one of the one-goal margin defeats in the 2nd leg for themselves. The exception being a Bayern repeat of the 1-0 home win which takes Madrid on a journey that may also end in spot kicks or possible victory by means of an extra time away goal.

Madrid will progress with all of their 90 minute wins in the 2nd leg, all of the draws and a sizeable chunk of the one goal defeats. Three more successful routes via extra time exist, each adding a couple of percent to their more substantial chances to win the tie in normal time. Despite Bayern being odds on to win the 2nd leg, Madrid are approaching 60% to win the tie outright and progress, especially with their counter attacking ability.

Click here to see the latest Champions League Semi-Final 2nd leg odds.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

четверг, 24 апреля 2014 г.

What home set-up is best for in-play betting?

What home set-up is best for in-play betting?

By Pinnacle Sports Apr 24, 2014

In-play betting requires traders to have a detailed setup to achieve maximum success. This article examines a typical set-up that traders have, and what can be done to avoid disasters in the markets.

The basic Home bettor set-up

First and foremost, a laptop or a desktop computer is mandatory – a bare minimum. Many traders also run several monitors from their computers, with a set up of four or more monitors not uncommon.

Some bookmakers who advertise a lot on television are very keen to promote the use of a phone or tablet device to trade from. However, it is not an ideal way to trade as refresh rates are slower and there are far fewer options than on the full website. Having said this, if your computer has an unforeseen issue, they are very useful for managing positions quickly in an emergency.

Furthermore, the use of API applications on phone or tablet devices is very limited. This third party software enables traders to automate their trades and various gadgets, such as the ability to set up a stop-loss figure, are available. In tennis trading, API software – view Pinnacle Sports API here – is particularly useful if you trade during service games, with quick refresh rates essential for getting trades matched in short time periods.

Live isn’t necessarily live

Something that new traders do not realise is that ‘live’ pictures – be they either from terrestrial television, satellite or live bookmaker streaming – may not necessarily be live. These pictures are subject to at least a 5 second delay, and even more than this isn’t uncommon. Whilst watching on a big-screen television is much easier on the eye than on a monitor, it’s worth noting that ‘live’ television is often even further behind than internet streams.

Court-siding – where traders (or traders representatives) are in the crowd – has been in the news lately, with an Englishman being arrested at the Australian Open. It goes without saying that these courtsiders have a big advantage in that they will know who has won the point 5-10 seconds prior to those watching on television or live streams. It is very important for traders to be aware that some people will almost certainly have access to information quicker than them.

Many matches are not available to watch live, and trading the non-live matches requires usage of a live scores website. These are plentiful and all have very similar refresh rates. Some are very different in terms of user-friendliness and layout so trying each one out to see which suits individual requirements is useful.

The importance of a back-up

As previously mentioned, it is highly useful to have a back-up plan if your computer, the internet or the bookmaker has reliability issues. It’s rare that – very differently to a pre-match bettor – an in-play trader wishes to expose their full stake, because they will almost certainly have an exit point, whether the trade has gone in a positive or negative way. Therefore it is necessary to have a back-up plan in case these issues, which whilst being rare, do occur.

Recommended back-up would be the following:-

An iPad and iPhone in case of computer malfunction.

A 3G connection on an iPhone (or similar) in case the internet fails. This can be used to monitor positions on a phone or tablet, or using a phone as a personal hotspot to provide internet access on a computer.

Several exchange or bookmaker accounts in case the bookmaker or exchange of choice has problems.

Having all three of these is highly recommended in case of technological failure. As previously mentioned, with trading, often a trader’s stake is a lot bigger than their stop-loss figure, so a loss of a full stake can be disastrous. Having these back-up solutions will ensure that this disaster does not occur.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Does the market take world ranking into account efficiently?

By Dan Weston Apr 24, 2014

Some bettors place faith in world rankings when assessing a pre-match betting position, whilst others consider them absolutely irrelevant, with some players having the ability to play well above or below their world ranking on a given surface. This tennis betting article examines whether the market takes account of world ranking information correctly, in the ATP.

The theory behind tennis world rankings

As was discussed in the article which assessed players defending ranking points, a Tennis player’s ranking is assessed on a 52-week rolling year basis with points being removed and added each week, depending on results.

Some tournaments offer vastly more ranking points than others. For example, winning a Grand Slam awards 2000 points, whilst the winner of a Masters event will receive 1000 points. Naturally, the winners of a 500 or 250 event will receive 500, or 250 points, respectively. Interestingly, reaching the quarter finals of a Grand Slam will award 360 points, which is more than the tournament winner of a 250 event earns.

Therefore, it is reasonable to suggest that world rankings can be somewhat skewed based on a player’s success or failure in several big tournaments. Just a couple of good runs into the latter stages of Grand Slams or Masters events will dwarf the ranking points received by regular participants of lower level tournaments.

This logical conclusion would support those bettors that disregard world rankings as a serious metric to consider when making a pre-match betting assessment of a forthcoming match. However, those who believe that the world rankings are a fair illustration of a player’s ability will argue that to get to the latter stages of a high calibre tournament, a player must have a high level of ability, and therefore deserves those ranking points mainly derived from several events.

Performance against higher ranked players

The following table shows how selected ATP players performed against higher ranked opponents in the last 12 months (15th April 2013 until 15th April 2014). A sample was used whereby two players at the midpoint of each ten place ranking bracket from 1 to 100 were assessed, which gives a solid sample size, and also a mix of ranking levels. A hypothetical bet of 100 level stake was applied to each player’s match, to derive the profit and loss figure. All prices used were Pinnacle Sports’ closing prices.

Rank

Player

Vs. Higher Rank 12 Month W/L

Vs. Higher Rank Win %

Vs. Higher Rank P/L

Vs. Higher Rank Best Win

Berdych

5-8

38.46

355

Novak Djokovic, 1

Ferrer

2-4

33.33

461

Rafael Nadal, 1

Youzhny

10-10

50.00

1060

David Ferrer, 3

Haas

0-7

0.00

-700

N/A

Kohlschreiber

5-14

26.32

-385

Richard Gasquet, 9

Verdasco

13-12

52.00

936

Richard Gasquet, 9

Seppi

3-16

15.79

-1090

Kei Nishikori, 11

Andujar

10-17

37.04

380

Marin Cilic, 11

Bautista-Agut

12-19

38.71

849

Berdych/Del Potro, 5

Nieminen

4-13

23.53

-1116

Juan Martin Del Potro, 7

Sijsling

10-17

37.04

-47

Raonic/Youzhny, 15

Kukushkin

19-18

51.35

-19

Andreas Seppi, 22

Klahn

6-12

33.33

-525

Daniel Brands, 57

Matosevic

14-19

42.42

-396

Milos Raonic, 13

Nedovyesov

6-13

31.58

-79

Robin Haase, 47

Hanescu

8-16

33.33

-178

Kevin Anderson, 19

Volandri

5-13

27.78

-664

Daniel Gimeno-Traver, 59

Mayer L

11-16

40.74

-294

Tommy Robredo, 16

Robert

10-12

45.45

Michal Przysiezny, 64

Struff

9-21

30.00

-1183

Mikhail Kukushkin, 64

Overall

162-277

36.90

-2540

As can be seen from the above table, ATP players did not fare well against higher ranked players, with a -2540 loss being generated from 439 hypothetical bets (-5.79% ROI).

Quite interestingly, we can see that current top 50 players achieved much better results against higher ranked players than those ranked between 50 and 100. 64 matches were won by current top 50 players against higher ranked players with 120 matches being lost (34.78%) and although the win percentage was lower, the higher average back price ensured that a profit of 750 was generated from these players (ROI of 4.08%).

Therefore a loss of 3290 ensued from backing players currently ranked between 50 and 100 from 255 matches (-12.90% ROI), and this figure shows that there are effectively two levels of the ATP, with the lower ranked players finding it much harder to get wins over their more illustrious opponents. This is also illustrated by the fact that only 4 out of 8 players sampled ranked outside the top 60 had wins over top 50 players, and just three had wins over top 40 players.

Performance against lower ranked players

The following table shows how selected ATP players performed against lower ranked opponents in the last 12 months (15th April 2013 until 15th April 2014, with the same rules as the previous sample applied.

Rank

Player

Vs. Lower Rank 12 Month W/L

Vs. Lower Rank Win %

Vs. Lower Rank P/L

Vs. Lower Rank Worst Defeat

Berdych

51-16

76.12

-471

Thiemo De Bakker, 104

Ferrer

57-22

72.15

-741

Alex Bogomolov Jr, 83

Youzhny

26-12

68.42

241

Bjorn Phau, 358

Haas

42-15

73.68

866

Steve Johnson, 142

Kohlschreiber

31-14

68.89

Ruben Bemelmans, 176

Verdasco

23-11

67.65

-213

Thiemo De Bakker, 162

Seppi

26-16

61.90

225

Grzegorz Panfil, 288

Andujar

16-12

57.14

263

Miroslav Mecir, 240

Bautista-Agut

23-6

79.31

466

Alexandre Kudryavtsev, 270

Nieminen

27-16

62.79

-428

Felip Peliwo, 355

Sijsling

23-16

58.97

-615

Thanasi Kokkinakis, 570

Kukushkin

30-8

78.95

151

Andreas Beck, 557

Klahn

47-12

79.66

741

Felip Peliwo, 554

Matosevic

9-8

52.94

-234

Ryan Harrison, 132

Nedovyesov

49-29

62.82

1017

Maximo Gonzalez, 370

Hanescu

14-11

56.00

Thiemo De Bakker, 162

Volandri

39-15

72.22

135

Pavol Cervenak, 322

Mayer L

16-9

64.00

-119

Somdev Devvarman, 188

Robert

29-12

70.73

170

Farrukh Dustov, 263

Struff

37-11

77.08

994

Simone Bole, 321

Overall

615-271

69.41

2516

Interestingly, this table shows the polar opposite of the sample on players facing opponents ranked higher than them. Naturally the win percentage for players facing lower-ranked opponents will be much higher than when they face higher-ranked opponents, and the 69.41% win percentage is almost double that of the first sample.

More relevant is the profit and loss figure from the sample. A 2516 profit was generated from 886 bets (2.84% ROI) and this is a pretty solid return on investment for a blindly-backed scenario.

Quite conversely, those ranked outside the top 50 enjoyed much more success against lower-ranked players than they did against higher-ranked players. The vast majority of the sample’s profit, 2274, was earned from these players. This was from 424 bets and generated an ROI of 5.36%. These figures would go towards indicating that there are almost three ‘divisions’ in Tennis, with the top 50, 50-100 rank and the 100+ rank needing to be treated as different entities.

Finally, it is also worth noting some stats on individual players. Mikhail Youzhny, Pablo Andujar, Roberto Bautista-Agut and Stephane Robert enjoyed profits over both higher and lower ranked players, indicating that they are generally under-rated by the market. However, the opposite can be argued against Jarkko Nieminen, Igor Sijsling, Marinko Matosevic and Leonardo Mayer. These players are generally over-rated by the market, as they have negative returns against both ranking brackets.

Overall, the stats in the article would indicate that the world ranking of a player is something that should be taken into account in select circumstances, as part of a balanced betting strategy.

Dan Weston is a freelance tennis writer who, along with producing expert content for Pinnacle Sports, also produces his own tennis rating system, and trading analysis, which can be found at www.tennisratings.co.uk.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

вторник, 22 апреля 2014 г.

The Freak vs. the Streak

By Gary Wise Apr 22, 2014

On April 26th, Jon “Bones” Jones defends his UFC Light-Heavyweight title against Glover Teixeira. Below, we take a look at factors you’ll want to consider when preparing to bet on Jones vs. Teixeira at UFC 172.

Who is Glover Teixeira?

Jon Jones’ title reign has almost exclusively featured big name opponents, many of who have held the UFC LHW title prior to his reign. Shogun Rua, Rampage Jackson, Vitor Belfort, Rashad Evans…it’s a rogues gallery of the UFC hype machine. That Glover Teixeira doesn’t fit that mold is intriguing and should have MMA bettors scrambling for information.

In short, after the UFC’s purchase of Strikeforce, Teixeira was universally considered the best LHW to have not joined UFC. After prolonged visa issues, he finally made it to the organization midway through 2012 and promptly swathed a path through the competition. In five fights, he’s notched five wins–two by knockout, two by submission—averaging just over six minutes per fight. The legitimacy of his contender status is unquestionable, but what makes it fun is that the question marks persist where Jones’ previous opponents came pre-packaged.

What’s in a streak?

Teixeira 5.100* stands out as a contender in large part because of the 20-win streak he brings into the Jones match. There are real questions though about whether the streak is a viable means to measure his quality, especially when the quality of his pre-UFC opposition was…questionable. To get a better grasp, we had our lead MMA trader weigh in: “I don’t think it means much. Glover has some confidence from the win streak, sure, but I don’t see much there in terms of momentum.”

In short, having beaten fighters of a lesser caliber doesn’t matter much when you’re being paired up with Jon Jones.

Is Jones slowing down?

When Jones 1.207* was ascending to the title and in his first few defenses, he was finishing off opponents in ways that had never been seen. He demolished Shogun Rua on the mat, dismantled Rampage Jackson with his striking and then finished Lyoto Machida with a standing choke, the likes of which had never been seen in the UFC. All three fighters were former LHW champions.

While Jones’ more recent fights have mostly been one-sided victories, there have been some chinks in the armor. Rashad Evans was the first to take him to the judges cards in nine fights; Vitor Belfort came close to submitting Jones in the first round; and some observers had Alexander Gustafsson beating Jones on points, even if the judges didn’t. Is Jones slowing down? Again, we hear from our lead MMA trader:

“For me, the only fight he didn’t dominate was against Gustafsson. Gustafsson is an inch taller and Jones only had a 5.5 inch reach advantage (normally 10 inches or more), so it was an unusual set of circumstances. Jones is not slowing down. He knows how to use his height and reach advantage, giving him a huge edge in most fights. Also, he’s not a conventional fighter; he comes at you from weird angles and except for the Gustafsson fight, he won’t just stay in the pocket and trade punches. He really understands the concept of ring control”

That all makes him incredibly difficult to train for.

While the Gustafsson fight gives pause, the perception for most is that what we’re seeing with Jones isn’t about slowing down so much as protecting his interests. Georges St. Pierre, a similarly dominant fighter, had a number of knockouts and submissions before the start of his title reign; in the nine fights since he won the title for good, St Pierre won via decision eight times (the ninth was via stoppage when BJ Penn opted not to come out for a fifth round). He’s averaged $12 million in earnings per year.

Jones has Nike sponsorship amongst others and a champion’s contract and has everything to lose through flashy, higher risk maneuvers. What we’re seeing is a smarter, safer Jones who is eliminating variance with a style that uses control seldom seen in the ring. That’s a good thing for those who are betting on him.

What will we see?

While Gustafsson’s height and reach made him a unique challenge for Jones, it’s possible he’s set the template for a fighter like Teixeira. Glover is more of a brawler than Gustafsson (landing 5.6 strikes per minute to Gustafsson’s 4.1), and may therefore want to take a more direct line towards Jones, understanding the Jones knows the threat of a takedown looks with Glover, who has averaged 3.9 takedowns per 15 minutes with 63% takedown accuracy.

Jones himself likely won’t have much incentive to go for a takedown against Teixeira, who has six wins by submission, and has only been successfully taken down one time in 25 attempts by opponents over his career. Teixeira himself has never suffered a takedown, though he’s never faced someone with Jones’ wrestling ability. This all adds up to the likelihood that the fight will stay on the feet. If it does and Glover stays as aggressive as we’ve seen him be, we could be looking a war.

Click here for the latest UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

среда, 16 апреля 2014 г.

France heavy favourites to top Group E

By Charlie Rowing Apr 15, 2014

France are the heavy favourites to qualify from Group E with Switzerland, Ecuador and Honduras expected to battle it out for the other qualification place. Read this 2014 World Cup Group E betting preview for an insight into the group dynamics.

France: Which France will turn up?

Fifa Ranking: 19th

Best Finish: Winners (1998)

Overall Miles to travel: 2,184^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 22.000*

At the last four World Cups, France have either reached the final (1998, 2006) or failed to win a game (2002, 2010).

Their inconsistency remained throughout qualifying, as they had to overcome a 2-0 1st leg deficit in the play-offs, beating Ukraine with an impressive 3-0 home win – becoming the first European side ever to overturn a two-goal deficit in the play-offs.

During qualifying the French team failed to score in 30% of their matches – 3rd highest of the teams who qualified – however from winning positions the French were clinical winning 100% of games they took the lead in.

French boss Didier Deschamps has been in charge since 2012 and will be looking to marshal his players to a World Cup win as coach, to match his victory as captain at the 1998 World Cup.

Interestingly their previous two performances in South America resulted in the French exiting at the group stages (Uruguay 1930 and Argentina 1978). This appears to be a trend with the French only reaching the knockout stages once outside of Europe – Mexico 1986.

Despite these Jekyll and Hyde performances France remain the 1.328* favourites to progress from Group E. Bettors must decide which French team will arrive in Brazil; this will sway your decision on whether or not to back them to qualify from this relatively easy group?

France’s record against Group E opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Ecuador

100%

Honduras

Switzerland

40%

Switzerland: Is it too early for youth?

Fifa Ranking: 8th

Best Finish: Quarter-finals (1934, 1938 & 1954)

Overall Miles to travel: 2,281^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 86.000*

Switzerland’s place among the seeds for the tournament caused heated debate but whether you believe the seeding system to be a fair reflection of the international landscape or not, the Swiss are a tough side to beat,.

The Swiss can be backed at 1.746* to qualify for the knockout stages after a successful qualifying campaign which saw them secure their place in Brazil with a game to spare for the first time in their history – finishing unbeaten and keeping clean sheets in seven of their 10 matches.

Their 64-year-old German manager Ottmar Hitzfeld has filled the team with youth since their failure to qualify for Euro 2012. Lambasted for playing dull football, the Swiss have turned to youth, who have excelled in recent times – winning the U17 World Cup in 2007 and reaching the final at the 2011 European U21 Championship.

They are defensively solid – keeping a record nine clean sheets in 15 matches – which included a 1-0, win over hosts Brazil in August 2013. However one area the team may struggle is in front of goal, which is highlighted by defender Fabian Schar scoring the most goals in qualifying (3).

Can the young Swiss team cause an upset at the World Cup or will 2014 be a couple of years too early?

Switzerland’s record against Group E opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Ecuador

Honduras

France

30%

Ecuador: Form away from Quito an issue

Fifa Ranking: 23rd

Best Finish: Last 16 (2006)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,092^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 86.000*

Ecuador are offered at 2.110* to qualify for the knockout stages of the 2014 World Cup. They are full of attacking talent but lack any top-class defenders. At home they are extremely strong – they play games in Quito where altitude provides a strong home field advantage – however on the road they are a different outfit – failing to win a single away qualifier.

They looked to qualify with ease after 10 matches but won just one of their last six matches, only scraping through in their penultimate game. Colombian manager, Reinaldo Rueda – who guided Honduras to the 2010 World Cup – will be hoping to conduct their passage out of the group stage.

Bettors will be interested to know that Ecuador scored the second lowest goals per match in qualifying (1.25) yet conceded the third highest goals per game (1). Their poor form away from their home ground will be a major concern to bettors thinking of backing the Ecuadorians to qualify out of Group E, after all if it wasn’t for their home form they wouldn’t have qualified.

Ecuador’s record against Group E opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

France

Honduras

33%

Switzerland

Honduras: Lack of quality could hinder outsiders

Fifa Ranking: 41st

Best Finish: Group stage (1982 & 2010)

Overall Miles to travel: 2,041^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: N/A

Honduras have now qualified for back-to-back World Cups for the first time in their history but it would be extremely unlikely if they avoided a third early exit. Odds of 5.410* suggest they have a chance but their lack of quality players ensure they are outsiders of the quartet.

Honduras qualified for the World Cup after finishing third in the final round of qualifying despite keeping just two clean sheets in 10 games – they also failed to score in 38% of games – the highest percentage from the nations who qualified.

In their two previous appearances at the World Cup (1982 and 2010) they failed to win a game with three defeats and three draws. They failed to score in South Africa, but were not disgraced in defeats to Spain and Chile and played well in a 0-0 draw with their Group E opponents Switzerland.

Their lack of ability is made clear when looking at their main strike threat – Carlos Costly. The 31-year-old will likely start as the lone striker and currently ply’s his trade with Guizhou Zicheng in the Chinese second division.

With this said, their lack of technical ability could be partly compensated by their familiarity with the hot and humid conditions expected in parts of Brazil. Could they spring a huge surprise and qualify for the World Cup knockout stages?

Honduras ‘record against Group E opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Ecuador

17%

Switzerland

France

^ This is the overall number of miles each nation will travel during the group stages from their selected base camp.

Click here to see the latest 2014 World Cup futures odds.

Click here to see the latest 2014 World Cup match odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Argentina should breeze through Group F

By Charlie Rowing Apr 15, 2014

Argentina are huge favourites with Pinnacle Sports to qualify from Group F as Nigeria, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Iran go head-to-head for the remaining qualification place. Read this 2014 World Cup Group F betting preview to see who is more likely to join Argentina.

Argentina: Too much fire power for Group E

Fifa Ranking: 3rd

Best Finish: Winners (1978 & 1986)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,046^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 5.830*

Two-time winners Argentina are the strong 1.033* favourites to qualify out of a relatively easy group F, while they can be backed at 5.830* as the second favourites to earn a third gold star.

They qualified for the 2014 World Cup with ease and despite a couple of poor results – a home draw with Bolivia and a meaningless final game with Uruguay – they looked ruthless.

Coached by former Sheffield United player Alejandro Sabella Argentina have an array of talent at their disposal, which is highlighted by the four attackers – Angel Di Maria, Sergio Aguero, Gonzalo Higuain and Lionel Messi.

Messi has so far not produced his club form on the biggest stage for his nation and had gone 16 competitive matches without scoring prior to the appointment of Sabella in 2011 – however he has been in terrifying form since being handed the captaincy.

One area of concern for Sabella and bettors punting on Argentina is the question marks over their central defence and goalkeeper. These defensive frailties can be seen in their qualifying campaign, which saw them keep a clean sheet in just 35% of qualifying games. Will it be a case of you score, but we will score more?

Argentina’s record against Group F opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Nigeria

67%

Iran

Bosnia-Herzegovina

100%

Nigeria: Could Nigeria cause an upset?

Fifa Ranking: 36th

Best Finish: Last 16 (1994 & 1998)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,849^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 151.000*

Nigeria can be backed at 2.280* to progress out of Group F and are the 5th most improved nation in terms of Fifa’ rankings, moving from 57th to 36th in 12 months.

The Super Eagles are a team transformed under manager Stephen Keshi. After failing to qualify for the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations, Keshi axed a number of ageing players in an attempt to lower the average age of the squad. His somewhat controversial selection policy has worked however, with Nigeria winning their first African title since 1994.

Nigeria qualified with ease, going through the group stage unbeaten and then beating Ethiopia 4-1 in a play-off to secure their place at the 2014 World Cup.

The Super Eagles reached the last 16 in 1994 and 1998 but failed to get out of the group stages in their two subsequent tournament appearances (2002 and 2010). Can Nigeria’s youth prevail in the heat of Brazil?

Nigeria’s record against Group F opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Argentina

17%

Iran

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Bosnia-Hercegovina: Expect an attacking approach

Fifa Ranking: 21st

Best Finish: First tournament

Overall Miles to travel: 2,171^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 151.000*

Formerly part of Yugoslavia this will be the Bosnians first World Cup and they can be backed at 1.833* – second Group F favourites to progress to the knockout stages.

After being beaten in the play-offs by Portugal in the two previous campaigns, the Bosnians topped their group on goal difference after securing victory against Lithuania in the final group game.

They play an expansive style of football and the 30 goals they scored in qualifying was the fourth highest in Europe, while strike their partnership Edin Dzeko and Vedad Ibisevic scored 18 goals between them – in fact as a team they scored three or more goals in 60% of qualifying games.

Manager Safet Susic expects plenty of excitement during Brazil stating, “We know that we expose ourselves too much and that there is a huge risk in the way we play – we play to score more goals than the opposition.

During qualification they held up defensively being one of the only six teams to concede no more than one goal a game, however better opposition could test their defence more.

Bosnia-Herzegovina’s record against Group F opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Argentina

Nigeria

Iran

Iran: Dead ball situation… strength and weakness

Fifa Ranking: 45th

Best Finish: Group Stage (1978, 1998 & 2006)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,849^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: N/A

The Iranian team are predominantly domestic-based and will do well to win a game in Group F – in their nine previous World Cup games they have won once.

Despite only conceding two goals in eight qualifying games, tougher tasks lie in wait, and this is reflected in odds of 7.440* for them to qualify for the knockout stages.

Managed by former Manchester United assistant Carlos Queiroz, Iran will attempt to shock the world of football but to do so, they will need to utilize the new golden boy of Iranian football; Reza Ghoochannejhad who has plays for Charlton Athletic in the English Championship.

After making a flying start in the early stages of qualifying, they started poorly in the final group stage – winning just twice of their opening five games. However, Queiroz masterminded his team to three straight defeats to finish top of the group.

Interestingly during qualifying they conceded the most goals of any team at the 2014 World Cup from free kicks (57%), but in turn scored the highest proportion of their goals from free kicks themselves (40%).

Iran’s record against Group F opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Argentina

Nigeria

Bosnia-Herzegovina

75%

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

суббота, 12 апреля 2014 г.

Factors to consider when betting on the Fed Cup

Factors to consider when betting on the Fed Cup

By Dan Weston Apr 11, 2014

With there being just one WTA tournament – a low-profile Kuala Lumpur International event – next week, much of the attention in the women’s game is focused on the Fed Cup World Group semi-finals, played on the 19/20th April. This article previews the 2014 Fed Cup World Group semi-finals.

Fed Cup Format

The format of the Fed Cup is slightly different to the men’s Davis Cup, with the doubles rubber being played as a fifth match decider, as opposed to the third in the Davis Cup. The effect of this is that doubles specialists are a little less relevant in the Fed Cup, as the tie may well be won or lost prior to their matches taking place. However, should a match be tied at two rubbers apiece, having players adept at doubles is obviously very useful indeed…

The semi-finals are between the Czech Republic and defending champions Italy, played at the CEZ Arena in Ostrava, and Australia and Germany, which is played at the Queensland Tennis Centre in Brisbane. The nations have played each other many times before, with Italy edging a 5-4 head to head record – which is pretty irrelevant – against the Czech Republic, whilst the 8-4 lead that Australia enjoy over Germany carries slightly more weight.

Strength in depth is a crucial facet in both the Fed Cup and Davis Cup, with nations able to be decimated by injuries and withdrawals, which can often take place for political, as well as scheduling reasons. Last year’s finalists, Russia, were forced to field a shadow of their best team, after a fall-out with their coach prior to their final with Italy. Whilst having an elite player is clearly a great advantage to nations, an over-reliance on them can cause huge difficulties should they be unavailable for a tie.

Czech Republic vs. Italy – Played on Indoor Hard Court.

Squad stats:-

Czech Republic

Singles Ranking

Doubles Ranking

Hard/Indoor W-L

Hard/Indoor Service Hold %

Hard/Indoor Service Break %

Hard/Indoor Combined %

Petra Kvitova

270

29-14

71.4

36.5

107.9

Lucie Safarova

22-13

74.8

30.1

104.9

Klara Koukalova

18-15

56.7

47.7

104.4

Andrea Hlavackova

113

3-6

70.8

28.4

99.2

Italy

Singles Ranking

Doubles Ranking

Hard/Indoor W-L

Hard/Indoor Service Hold %

Hard/Indoor Service Break %

Hard/Indoor Combined %

Sara Errani

16-16

55.3

46.1

101.4

Roberta Vinci

15-16

65.2

35.3

100.5

Karin Knapp

263

9-13

63.9

32.9

96.8

Camila Giorgi

10-5

70.5

35.5

106

*Data taken from the last 12 months

We can see from the above stats that the Czech Republic (3.330*) have arguably the more accomplished players. Not only do they boast the highest ranked singles player – Petra Kvitova – their three highest ranked singles players have better surface win-loss record and combined hold/break percentages than the top three ranked Italian players.

However, both Errani and Vinci – whose results have been very disappointing so far in 2014 – did not participate in Italy’s 3-1 quarter final victory over the USA (also played on Indoor Hard). It was left to Knapp and the talented 22 year old Giorgi – whose stats have hugely improved this season – to take the first three singles rubbers over Christina McHale, Madison Keys and Alison Riske in Cleveland in February.

It will be interesting to see Italy (4.710*) captain Corrado Barazzutti’s singles selection, as Giorgi would possibly be a better choice over her higher ranked compatriots.

If the match goes to a deciding doubles rubber, Italy will be favourites. Errani/Vinci are superb doubles players and should have the edge over Andrea Hlavackova, and whomever captain Petr Pala decides to pair her with. Barbora Zahlavova-Strycova paired up with Hlavackova to get a crucial deciding rubber victory over Spain in the quarter final, but Zahlavova-Strycova was not nominated in the starting squad for the semi-final, with the returning Kvitova included.

Australia vs. Germany – Played on Outdoor Hard Court.

Squad stats:-

Australia

Singles Ranking

Doubles Ranking

Hard/Indoor W-L

Hard/Indoor Service Hold %

Hard/Indoor Service Break %

Hard/Indoor Combined %

Sam Stosur

24-12

74.4

33.6

108

Casey Dellaccqua

11-7

64.1

39.1

103.2

Ashleigh Barty

169

2-3

66.7

92.7

Storm Sanders

269

1-2

71.1

35.9

107

Germany

Singles Ranking

Doubles Ranking

Hard/Indoor W-L

Hard/Indoor Service Hold %

Hard/Indoor Service Break %

Hard/Indoor Combined %

Angelique Kerber

155

33-14

70.2

43.5

113.7

Angela Petkovic

10-11

65.2

33.5

98.7

Julia Goerges

8-15

66.2

29.7

95.9

Anna-Lena Groenefeld

N/A

*Data taken from the last 12 months

This match-up is highly intriguing. The stats clearly show that in Angelique Kerber, Germany (3.800*) have the best player on the surface, with a significantly better win-loss record on hard court, as well as a superior hold/break combined percentage. No doubt she should be favourite if she plays both singles rubbers, with her likely opponent Sam Stosur – who often struggles to perform in her home country – and Casey Dellacqua, who has improved of late.

Both Ashleigh Barty and Storm Sanders have little WTA main tour experience, although both – especially Barty – have excellent doubles record. In 2013, Barty and Dellacqua reached three Grand Slam doubles finals together, and clearly this would give them a significant advantage in the event of a deciding doubles rubber, against likely opponents Groenefeld and Goerges, who lost in Germany’s quarter-final against Slovakia, in a dead rubber.

Australia’s (3.550*) success in this match is likely to be decided by two factors.

Firstly, how well Stosur copes with expectation in her home country. It should be noted that she has a 60.95% win percentage in her career, but this lowers to 55.21% in Australia.

The second factor is Casey Dellacqua. As the likely second singles player as well as doubles player, she will almost certainly need to take at least two from three rubbers for Australia to win the tie. Should she face Kerber, she will start as a heavy underdog, which means that her clash with Petkovic will be the crucial rubber in this match.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Can Werdum Slay the Giant at UFC Fight Night?

By Gary Wise Apr 11, 2014

On April 19th, Fabricio Werdum (17-5-1) and Travis Browne (16-1-1) will fight in a main event whose winner is presumed to be next in line for a shot at Cain Velazquez’s UFC heavyweight title. Below, we look at the fighters, how they match up and factors you should consider when betting on the fight.

History

In Fabricio Werdum and Travis Browne, we have two fighters who have taken diametrically opposed paths to fighting for a title shot. On the one hand, we have Werdum, the 36-year old Brazilian with black belts in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (2nd degree), Judo and Mui Thai, whose fighting has been sporadic (5 fights since 2009) and who actually needed to leave the UFC to be recognized as an elite fighter.

On the other hand, Brown has been considered a rising star since early in his career and has 12 wins by knockout. Where Werdum relies on technique, Brown is a 6’7” specimen who relies in large part on physical superiority, with a healthy dose of superior coaching from Greg Jackson, considered by many the top MMA trainer in the world.

Browne enters the fight as a solid favorite on the strength of recent first round knockout wins against veterans Gabriel Gonzaga, Alistair Overeem and Josh Barnett; the Overeem victory is especially noteworthy because of Werdum’s loss to Overeem in 2011.

The counterargument is that Werdum’s loss—his only one since 2008—came before Overeem was busted for steroid use, while Brown’s defeat of the Dutchman came afterwards. Werdum also defeated Antonio Silva, the one man to blemish Browne’s resume with a loss.

Striking

While Browne’s reputation as a striker is by far the more pronounced of the two, he and Werdum bring numbers that show some surprising similarity. Brown holds a small advantage in strikes landed per minute (2.94 to 2.83) and has 12 knockouts to Werdum’s five, but that’s where the numerical advantage ends. Werdum has the edge in accuracy (48% to 45%), while his Mui Thai training shines through in strikes absorbed per minute (1.86 to Browne’s 3.1) and striking defense (58% to 47%).

What are not shown in those numbers are two factors that seem to favor Browne; his power as evidenced by his knockout record and self-confidence. While the latter may seem superficial, it’s evident in his style; Browne engages almost recklessly, with faith that his superior physicality will win out in a brawl. While he prefers counterstriking to a proactive approach, he won’t wait too long to engage.

Grappling

The reason Browne’s approach has been so successful is that he’s forcing other fighters to acclimate to his style of fight. This is most evident in the fact that, in 18 fights, he’s never been taken down. By contrast, Werdum has only managed to defend 36% of takedowns, but this is by design; 9 of his 17 wins have come via submission, and there’s no doubt he prefers to fight from his back. In the Overeem fight, he practically begged for the privilege.

Brown has won two fights by submission and does go for takedowns with great success (78% success rate), but the guess here is that coach Jackson will tell him to keep the fight on the feet at all costs. That will leave it to Werdum to get the fight to the ground; Browne’s takedown defense will make that a tall order for a man who has only been successful with takedowns 34% of the time over his career

Conclusions

While Werdum’s experience can’t be ignored, neither can the faults it betrays. Since 2006, he’s lost three fights; to Andrei Arlovski, Junior dos Santos and Alistair Overeem, three huge men who relied on knockouts for the majority of their victories, buoyed by strong takedown defense. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it?

While Werdum could hope to out-point Browne in a Marquess of Queensberry-style dance, Browne is unlikely to cooperate. Werdum’s real hope is that the relatively undisciplined Browne slips up, allowing Werdum an opening for a submission. Either you think Browne’s coaches will have him prepared for that scenario or you don’t. Which way you go there should probably guide your betting.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

среда, 9 апреля 2014 г.

Odds suggest Pacquiao will avenge his defeat to Bradley

By Calum Ward Apr 9, 2014

Manny Pacquiao is the favourite to avenge his 2012 defeat to Timothy Bradley as the two go toe-to-toe inside the MGM Grand Arena in a rematch on April 12th. With bad blood remaining from their first fight, this Pacquiao vs. Bradley boxing betting preview looks at the impact psychology can have before rematches and highlights the key statistics you should be aware of before placing your bets.

Pacquiao vs. Bradley statistics

Manny Pacquiao

Name

Timothy Bradley

“Pac-Man”

Nickname

“Desert Storm”

Age

Kibawe, Philippines

Birthplace

California, USA

5ft 6” (1.69)

Height

5ft 6″ (1.68m)

67″ (170cm)

Reach

69″ (175cm)

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

55-2-5 (38 wins by KO)

Career Record

31-0-0 (12 wins by KO)

What we learnt from the first fight?

The first fight between the two pugilists ended in controversy with Bradley awarded a split-decision victory over Pacquiao despite many believing the “Pac-man” did more than enough to win – the WBO went as far as to ask five independent judges to review footage of the bout, all of whom scored the fight in favour of Pacquiao.

In addition, according to the Associated Press, Pacquiao landed 253 punches to Bradley’s 159, and 52 out of 55 unofficial score cards had Pacquiao down as the winner. Despite this, Bradley became the new WBO Welterweight Champion, which meant the announcement of their April rematch makes this one of the most anticipated fights in recent boxing history.

Boxing rematches

This will be the first rematch of Bradley’s career, but what can bettors learn from Pacquiao’s previous rematches?

Manny Pacquiao vs Juan Manuel Marquez III and IV

Fight III

Closing Odds

Winner

Fight IV

Closing Odds

Winner

13th November 2011

Pacquiao 1.895; Marquez 9.910

Pacquiao

8 December 2012

Pacquiao 1.597; Marquez 4.210

Marquez

In Pacquiao’s latest fights with Juan Manuel Marquez (Pacquiao-Marquez III and Pacquiao-Marquez IV), “Pac-man” was the closing favourite. Although Marquez lost the third fight in November 2011, he unexpectedly defeated Pacquiao with the “knockout of the year” in their rematch 13 months later, giving underdog bettors a 321 profit for a 100 bet.

This pattern also occurred when Erik Morales beat Pacquiao in March 2005, only for Pacquiao to knock “El Terrible” out for the first time of his career in their rematch a year later.

So why is it that the loser of the first fight can go on to win the second?

Rematch psychology

The ability to bounce back from a sporting defeat is known as ‘mental toughness;’ and is essentially the characteristic that distinguishes successful athletes, especially in individual sports. Focusing attention solely on the upcoming fight is crucial for success in boxing, particularly when the athlete is required to disconnect the negative emotions that may have arisen from their previous defeat.

Pacquiao was the 1.200 favourite for the first fight, while odds of 4.000 for were offered on Bradley. Interestingly despite defeat in that contest, Pacquiao is still the favourite for April’s rematch with odds currently being offered at 1.474* on Pacquiao and 2.810* on Bradley – which suggests the bookmaker has taken into account the controversy from the first fight as Pacquiao is still the favourite despite officially losing.

However, gaining revenge is simply one aspect involved in rematch psychology. Another is motivation. Which fighter is more motivated in the rematch? At 35 Pacquiao is the older boxer, and having lost two of his three previous fights – and with talk of him retiring if he loses – the desire to cement his legacy may give him the motivation he needs. In comparison, Bradley is undefeated and will want to maintain his pristine 31-0 record – and silence the doubters who claim the first fight result was a sham.

Regression to the mean

Fight

Winner

Result

Pacquiao-Marquez I

Draw

Pacquiao-Marquez II

Pacquiao

Split Decision

Pacquiao-Marquez III

Pacquiao

Majority Decision

Pacquiao-Marquez IV

Marquez

KO Round 6 of 12

Pacquiao-Barrera I

Pacquiao

TKO Round 11 of 12

Pacquiao-Barrera II

Pacquiao

Unanimous Decision

Pacquiao-Morales I

Morales

Unanimous Decision

Pacquiao-Morales II

Pacquiao

TKO Round 10 of 12

Pacquiao-Morales III

Pacquiao

KO Round 3 of 12

Is it really a major surprise when a rematch between two closely matched fighters produces a different result to the other bout or bouts? For instance if two boxers who are equal in ability fought 10 times, you would expect on average both to win 5 – it would be highly unlikely that one would win all 10. Fortunately for bettors, this regression to the mean creates value in the odds. Bettors must take into account the role of luck in any boxing match – which can come in the way of poor or biased judging results, bad refereeing decisions or a flash knockdown.

Under this theory, even though Pacquiao was 1.200 – an 83.3% chance of winning – favourite before Pacquiao-Bradley I, he would still be expected to lose one fight in three. Therefore, market value is created with Pacquiao opening as the 1.474* (67.84% chance of winning) favourite for the second fight despite losing the first encounter, and Bradley opening at 2.810* – (35.59%) – despite being undefeated throughout his entire career.

Could it go the distance again?

Pacquiao vs Bradley betting is also available via the over/under market for total rounds. This is an interesting market as the previous bout between the two went to the judges’ scorecards. Odds of 1.290* suggest the fight will go over 9.5 rounds again, while 3.850* is available if you want to bet on the fight ending in under 9.5 rounds.

By looking at each of the boxers’ records scheduled for 12 rounds, Pacquiao has won 63% of his fights by knockout (24 of 38), compared to just 22% for Bradley (2 of 9).

However, Bradley has a record of 7-0 in fights that have gone the distance, including his split-decision victory over Pacquiao last time. This would suggest that when backing Pacquiao to win, it is likely he will secure victory by knockout in fewer than 9.5 rounds, as he has favored the early finish in 83% of his fights. And when betting on Bradley to win, it is likely to occur in over 9.5 rounds, as per 78% of his fights.

With the odds suggesting another close fight, bettors should consider – in addition to statistics and records – the impact of factors such as rematch psychology, regression to the mean and motivation before selecting the winner of Pacquiao vs. Bradley II.

Click here to see the latest Pacquiao vs. Bradley II boxing odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

вторник, 8 апреля 2014 г.

How to find value in NCAA Basketball betting

How to find value in NCAA Basketball betting

By Mirio Mella Apr 4, 2012

With March Madness – the NCAA basketball main event – about to start, bettors should be aware of an opportunity to find an edge over the bookmaker. This article discusses the potential to find value betting on NCAA basketball handicaps.

Tips For Betting On NCAA Basketball

NCAA basketball offers a real opportunity for bettors to gain an edge over bookmakers. With March Madness about to start, you will want to focus your attention on teams who have qualified for "The Big Dance".

In NCAA basketball, it’s not uncommon for a total to move as much as 10 points, or for some handicaps to move five points. The early NCAA basketball sharps will bet heavily on these openers – which can be very profitable.

If an accurately priced whole-point handicap pushes about 4.5% of the time in NCAAB, betting into an early number which is off by five points will win more than 70% of the time. A total will land on a well-priced number almost 3% of the time in NCAA totals, making an opening total that is off, even easier for a player to beat.

With over 300 Division I teams, oddsmakers simply don’t have the time to analyse each game and team in-depth. Most basketball fans have a favourite Conference, which gives them an advantage over a bookmaker. If you’re a specialist in one Conference and know the players, coaches, playing styles, injuries and suspensions for all the teams in that Conference, you have invaluable insight on match-ups that feature those teams that bookmakers, simply do not.

As Pinnacle Sports open lines early, we often find that we have to resort to making an educated guess when we first put the lower limit handicaps live. This is where players who’ve done their homework on the Conferences have the advantage. We rely on these players to quickly sharpen the Pinnacle Sports odds, at which point we are then able to raise the limits.

Occasionally, you’ll see a total that is extremely off – for example, it might open at 140 over 1.952 and then close at 1.588. When an opener is off by five or more points, we sometimes choose not to move the total and look to adjust the match odds instead. This is because it can be hard to assess how much a half-point is worth when your opener is that far from the real total.

Knowledge is key when finding an edge over the bookmaker, and NCAAB offers the perfect opportunity for educated bettors to take advantage ahead of March Madness.

Click here to see the latest NCAA Basketball odds

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

The Masters by numbers: 14 Masters trends

By Michael Gales Apr 7, 2014

Bettors aiming to make a profit at the 2014 Masters should read these 14 Masters golf betting trends to give you an insight into the numbers for the previous 77 tournaments.

1 – Anchor Putter

Last year Adam Scott became the first player to win the Masters using a belly or broom-handle putter. Interestingly, four of the last nine major champions have used a belly putter – Keegan Bradley 45.800*, Webb Simpson 85.500* and Ernie Els 154.810*.

1 – Don’t expect a rookie to win

Only one rookie has ever won the Masters – Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. The American beat the odds in 1979, and despite Australian Jason Day finishing 2nd in 2011, it appears that course knowledge has a pivotal bearing on performance at Augusta. Pinnacle Sports’ odds suggest the likes of Stephen Gallacher 243.850*, Victor Dubuisson 112.220* and Joost Luiten 267.260* will struggle to break the trend on their debuts.

3 – Tough to defend title

Only Jack Nicklaus (1965, 1966), Tiger Woods (2001, 2002) and Nick Faldo (1989,1990) have defended their Masters title the following year since 1934. This highlights the difficulty Adam Scott 12.020* will face when he begins his defence.

4 – Tough task from the front

Just four champions – Craig Wood (1941), Arnold Palmer (1960), Jack Nicklaus (1972) and Ray Floyd (1976) – have led for all four rounds of the Masters.

5 – Beware the watery graves

Five holes – 11, 12, 13, 15 & 16 – on Augusta’s back nine have water waiting to trap an errant shot. Many Masters hopefuls have met a watery end during the 77 years of action at Augusta. (13) was the score carded by Tom Weiskopf on the par-3 12th hole in the 1980 Masters.

7 – Consider the Left-handers

Left-handers have won only eight major tournaments. However, they have won five of the last 11 green jackets. Could Phil Mickelson 14.380* or Bubba Watson 26.630* claim another major win?

12 – Biggest winning margin

Twelve was the biggest winning margin set by Tiger Woods when he won his first Masters back in 1997. Woods’ four-day score is also a record at 270. With Woods not competing this year, could anyone dominate like Tiger in 1997?

14 – Make the cut 12 months earlier

Every Masters winner since 2000 has made the cut in the year immediately preceding their victory – while 78% of winners have been inside the top 30 12 months earlier. 2011 winner Charl Schwartzel 36.020*, 2013 US Open winner Justin Rose and Matt Kuchar 21.870* were all inside the top 30 at the 2013 Masters.

15 – Settled by a playoff

The Masters has gone to a playoff on 15 occasions. The last two Masters have been decide by a playoff – Scott beating Angel Cabrera 61.500* last year, while Bubba Watson beat Louis Oosthuizen 57.300* in 2012.

16 – Can a European break the duck

No European has won the Masters since Jose-Maria Olazabal 15 years ago. Will it be 16 years without a European green jacket winner? Rory McIlroy goes in as the 9.360* favourite, while an in-form Sergio Garcia is at 23.930*.

24 – Hole in one

There have been 24 hole-in-ones recorded at the Masters. Interestingly 15 of these have come at hole 16, a par 3 of 170 yards. Last year Jamie Donaldson 144.360* became only the fifth player to achieve the feat on hole six in the event’s 77-year history.

Interested in how bettors and bookmakers underweight rare events? Click here to read about the infamous Hole In One Gang who in 1991 made a tidy profit from taking advantage of ill informed bookmakers on the probability of a hole in one at a tournament.

25-39 – Age trend

Every Masters winner this century was aged between 25 and 39, with those in their 30′s enjoying the most success – Adam Scott was 32 last year. That range covers most of the leading candidates, but notably not Rory McIlroy or Mickelson.

46 – Over the hill at 40

At the tender age of 46, Jack Nicklaus became the oldest winner of the Masters in 1986 – no one this century has won the masters in their 40′s.

63 & 75 – One round doesn’t win or ruin your chances

63 is the joint Augusta course round record set by Nick Price in 1986 and Greg Norman in 1996 – but neither man went on to win. 75 is the highest first-round score of an eventual winner, when Craig Stadler carded it in 1982. Read here how golfers can be affected by luck and regression during golf tournaments.

Click here for the latest 2014 Masters Outrights odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

суббота, 5 апреля 2014 г.

Does the market value players with a Latino name correctly?

By Dan Weston Apr 4, 2014

With the tennis clay season re-starting after the hard court events in March, this article examines whether the Tennis betting markets over-react towards the nationality and name of players on clay.

If you took a survey of which nations had the strongest players on clay, it’s very likely that the likes of Spain, Italy, Argentina, Portugal and Brazil would be at the top of the list.

Certainly, with two players in the ATP top ten – world number one Rafael Nadal and sixth-ranked David Ferrer – who are very strong on the surface, and 12 players in the top 100, Spain are the most prominent Tennis nation in the world currently on clay, with a strength in depth that other countries can only look at with envy.

Something evident during the clay season is an apparent under-rating of specific players due to their playing style. Both John Isner and Kevin Anderson are competent clay court players, despite having a reputation for being hard-court loving big servers. However, there are several players such as Marcos Baghdatis and Yen-Hsun Lu, who have atrocious records on the surface. Andy Murray is another whose clay stats are much worse than other surfaces, and the recently retired Andy Roddick was another in this regard.

On that basis, it has often been discussed that players from the above nations are priced too short on clay due to their nationality, or more specifically sometimes ‘a Latino name’. The purpose of this article is to assess whether that is indeed the case, and to evaluate whether betting against these players could give generally positive returns.

ATP: Value to be found on the clay court

The following table illustrates the 12 clay month stats (correct at 2nd April, 2014) for the top 100 ATP players from the above nations, and those players’ career clay stats, with a hypothetical 100 bet at level stakes being applied to all their matches. All prices used were Pinnacle Sports’ closing prices.

Click the graph to see the full size

We can immediately see from the table that backing these players actually generated a positive return on investment in the last 12 months, of 5.44%. Furthermore the career return on investment was marginally positive, from a huge sample of 4625 matches.

This would indicate that – opposed to the hypothesis that there would be a negative return backing players with Latino names – there was actually some small edge to backing them on clay.

However, it can be said that Joao Sousa and Carlos Berlocq seem to be over-rated on clay from the stats, with poor 12 month and career stats on the surface.

Federico Delbonis is definitely one to watch. With a win percentage of 69.6%, the Argentine – who recently won his first ATP title in Sao Paulo – looks to have impressive clay court stats. This puts him with a higher win percentage over the last year than the more illustrious and higher-ranked Nicolas Almagro and Fernando Verdasco. He also had excellent financial returns from backing him in both the last 12 months, and throughout his career on clay.

The following table illustrates the 12 clay month stats (correct at 2nd April, 2014) for the top 100 WTA players from the above nations, and those players’ career clay stats, with a hypothetical 100 bet at level stakes being applied to all their matches. All prices used were Pinnacle Sports’ closing prices.

Click the graph to see the full size

WTA: Market efficient

What is immediately apparent from the table is that there were less WTA players from the traditional clay-playing nations in the top 100, and that returns were not as strong as in the ATP.

A return on investment of 1.40% isn’t anything to be particularly sniffed at, but it’s not nearly as impressive as the 5.44% that the ATP generated. A career ROI of -0.25% shows that the market appears pretty efficient at pricing up the above women, and that name and nationality have little impact in the market.

Interestingly, Roberta Vinci and Paula Ormaechea (from a smaller sample) have strong returns on clay, and Vinci’s 12 month win percentage of 76.2% is highly impressive for a player ranked 16th in the world. With the Italian having a testing start – on hard court – to the 2014 season it will be a big ask for her to maintain this percentage this year.

It would certainly appear that Garbine Muguruza has been very over-rated so far on clay in her short career, with terrible returns in the last 12 months, as well as throughout her career. Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor is another one that accusation can be levelled at.

Overall the statistics indicate that particularly in the WTA, the market is very efficient regarding players’ names and nationalities on clay. On that basis it can be said that matches on clay can be assessed on the merits of each individual player, as opposed to the market being skewed based on a players’ nationality or ‘latino name’.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

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