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Could Hendricks be GSP’s greatest challenge at UFC 167?

By Michael Gales Nov 7, 2013

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George St. Pierre has dominated the welterweight division since 2007 but in #1 contender Johny Hendricks, he is potentially facing the greatest threat to his crown. The article looks at factors to consider when betting the UFC 167 main event on November 16th.

How tough a challenger is Hendricks?

Generally, because of the caliber of bettors who make up our markets, we believe the markets tell the story. If you subscribe to that theory, Hendricks (15-1) is the toughest opponent St. Pierre has faced since BJ Penn in January of 2009. Since that time, GSP has defended his title 6 times, with none of the markets suggesting bettors had nearly the faith in those opponents as they do in Hendricks.

With that said, GSP is still the heavy favourite; His championship run has been a dominant one and he showed in his last match (Vs. Nick Diaz) that his surgically-repaired knee is back to health.

Hendricks is still relatively new to the upper echelons of the division, but that may work in his favour. With his one loss coming by decision, he’s never been knocked out or submitted, and he’s not as battle-worn as some of the fighters GSP has faced. He also brings a combination of elite wrestling and remarkable one-strike knockout power that is unique amongst the men St. Pierre has faced.

Striking: Accuracy vs. Power

Should this fight stay on the feet, it will be a study in contrasting styles. St. Pierre generally uses his striking for scoring points and controlling range, landing more strikes than his opponents in each of his last 11 fights. His strikes landed count has increased dramatically over time, averaging 93 landed strikes per fight over his last four encounters. By contrast, his opponents have averaged 43 per fight, a number that would be lower if Jake Shields hadn’t landed 49 of his 73 strikes landed against GSP after the champion temporarily lost sight in one eye in the third round of the their 5-round fight.

Three of Hendricks’ last six matches have ended with first-round knockouts

Hendricks doesn’t have St. Pierre’s striking volume or accuracy, but what he does have is a left hand that’s made him one of the most-feared single-punch knockout artists in the sport. Three of Hendricks’ last six matches have ended with first-round knockouts, which may make up for the lower volume of strikes landed he produces.

St. Pierre may have the advantage standing because his 7 reach benefit makes it difficult for his opponents to connect. Those rivals have only landed one of every four strikes, while Hendricks has been connected with 42% of the time. Of course, Hendricks may only need to land once, and he’s shown a remarkable chin in his time in the octagon.

Wrestling: Tough task taking GSP down

Hendricks’ knockout power is daunting in large part because he constantly offers the threat of taking down his opponents. In his last fight against Carlos Condit (also a former GSP challenger), Hendricks scored a remarkable 12 takedowns in earning the unanimous decision. That number skews his averages to an extent, but throughout his career he has scored a takedown in every two attempts, and there have been a lot of attempts (5.52 per 15 minutes).

The problem Hendricks faces is that GSP is no Condit. St. Pierre has successfully defended 6/7 takedown attempts against him for his career (Condit just 2/5) and has only been taken down once in his last 6 fights. Even against fellow wrestlers Josh Koscheck (4-1), Jon Fitch (7-0) and Hughes (3-0), he’s dominated takedowns for/against, though none of those men offered the threat of Hendricks’ left hand to distract from the wrestling.

Both fighters tend to prefer ground control to submissions. Hendricks hasn’t attempted a submission in any of his UFC decision victories and has only scored one submission in his career. His defense against submissions was tested to a degree against Condit, but not from his back.

GSP hasn’t made many submission attempts during his championship reign, but he went for 6 of them against Dan Hardy, whose jiu-jitsu was similarly untested. If GSP gets Hendricks on his back, he may attempt the finish.

Experience could be key for GSP

With victories over Condit, Koscheck and Fitch Hendricks has done a good job of duplicating GSP’s feats as they’ve been put in front of him, but he can’t match St. Pierre’s experience. This may factor in a couple of ways.

First, Hendricks has never gone 5 rounds. Part of the reason St. Pierre has moved to a more controlled striking game is because of the endurance test a 5-round fight represents. In fact, he’s so enamored by the endurance test that he’s seen his last 6 fights go the duration, winning all 6 by unanimous decision. Hendricks trying too hard for the first round knockout could prove dangerous because of the duration of the fallout if he fails.

Secondly, Hendricks has never fought on this kind of stage. Hendricks has never gone 5 rounds because he’s never fought in a main event. That means he’s never carried the media duties of fight week and never been the centre of attention for a card, a completely different kind of pressure than fighters are otherwise accustomed to.

Will that pressure get to Hendricks? Or will one well-placed strike see St. Pierre’s reign come to an end?

Get the best UFC St-Pierre vs. Hendricks 167 odds here.

*Odds subject to change

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