How good is Renan Barao?

How good is Renan Barao?

By Gary Wise Jan 27, 2014

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On February 2nd, Renan Barao defends his UFC Bantamweight belt for the first time, against Urijah Faber at UFC 169. Below, we look at how the odds see him faring and whether they give him enough credit or underestimate his skill.

Background and lines

Renan Barao is on a run of 30 wins without a loss (one no contest), a streak that’s seen him to the WEC, then the UFC, then the UFC Interim Bantamweight Championship, and now the UFC Bantamweight Championship. His wins have been varied (7 knockouts, 15 submissions, 10 decision) and dominant, with no split decisions in the last 6 years. Since entering the UFC in 2011, he has dominated his division, cleaning out all challengers. His fight against Faber is a rematch of their UFC 149 bout, where Barao won convincingly 49-46, 50-45, 49-46.

Barao is favoured at 1.369*, good for a 73.5% chance at victory according to Pinnacle Sports’ markets. Despite being a clear favourite, the odds are not reflective of those seen with similarly dominant champions of late; Jon Jones closed at 1.14 vs. Alexander Gustaffson, 1.12 vs. Chael Sonnen and 1.12 vs. Vitor Belfort in his last 3 fights. Jose Aldo closed at 1.11 vs. Chan Sung Jung; Anderson Silva closed at 1.11 vs. Stephan Bonnar; Georges St. Pierre closed at 1.22 vs. Nick Diaz. These examples go to show that odds can reach those extremes, in turn forcing us to ask why Barao’s has not.

Striking

In their first fight, Barao controlled the tempo, using length and volume striking to keep Faber from feeling comfortable. While he only earned a significant strike advantage of 85-62, the feeling amongst observers was that Barao was in complete control. Faber did land the occasional, more powerful blow, but Barao was never in danger whilst standing, dominating early, and then cruising late. With the first fight and historical records as indicators, Faber should want to take the fight to the ground.

Grappling

The problem for Faber 3.400* will be getting the fight to the mat. Six times in their first fight, Faber went for takedowns and Barao punished him, nullifying the takedowns and landing strikes on his exposed opponent. Barao, comfortable with the fight staying standing, never went for a takedown.

Barao has never been taken down in the UFC, and only from 5% of attempts throughout his career. Faber’s takedowns aren’t the sharpest Barao has faced either; the Californian has landed just 36% of attempts over his career. Even if Faber does get Barao to the ground, there are issues; Barao, a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, has won more fights by submission than by knockout or decision.

So why not Barao?

Ultimately, the shorter odds on Barao than those of his similarly dominant colleagues may come down to perception issues. His name isn’t as established as Jones’, Aldo’s et. al., while opponent Faber’s star is massive (to wit; despite being the champion and Brazilian fight fans being Twitter crazy, Barao had just 47,518 Twitter followers on January 26th. Faber had 329,345). Additionally, the 26-year-old Brazilian inherited his title when original opponent Dominick Cruz was forced to withdraw from their fight to unify the belt, hardly a glamorous victory. Throw in a language barrier that doesn’t make for a killer interview and you have a very quiet superstar.

Faber certainly has a punchers chance, but it’s much in the same way that the long shots mentioned earlier did. He’s fighting a superior striker who has already proved able to control Faber on the feet, with virtually no hope of getting him to the ground. Still, name recognition may be resonating with bettors as hope; if you decide that’s the case and like a +EV bet, it’s time to get money down on Barao.

Click here to see the latest UFC 169 odds.

*Odds subject to change

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