Understanding HFA for Six Nations Rugby Union betting

Understanding HFA for Six Nations Rugby Union betting

By Michael Gales Jan 21, 2014

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It shouldn’t be a surprise to hear that Rugby teams in the Six Nations, just like in other sports, play better at home. However, how much does home field advantage affect each side? Knowing this could make a big difference to your Six Nations rugby betting, so read on to discover HFA values since the start of the six nations tournament.

An analysis of the Six Nations competition since its inception in 2000 showed that teams playing at home won 59.32% of games over 14 seasons, proving a distinct home advantage.

-This figure increases to an even more impressive 72.14% when we remove the two teams who have yet to win the Six Nations (Italy, and Scotland). While this information proves the widely held belief that home teams perform better, it gets more interesting when comparing the HFA of individual teams.

HFA for individual teams in Six Nations betting

To calculate the Home Field Advantage, take the number of points scored at home per season (HF) and minus the number of points conceded at home (HA).

Then divide by the number of home games played in a season (2 or 3 – three teams play at home twice one year, and three the following).

For the table below, we calculated each nations’ results for the past six seasons and their average for the entire Six Nations tournament.

Nation

6 Nations Titles

Home Point Differential (since start of the 6 Nations)

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

England

4

17.94

12.3

7

20

4.5

21

8

Scotland

0

-4.4

6

-6.5

2.67

-4.5

0

-7.5

Ireland

1

10.51

-3

24

6.5

10

5

7.33

Wales

4

4.66

6.33

21

-0.5

8

3

23.67

France

5

11.31

-1.5

8

16

17

7

2

Italy

0

-12.97

-1.66

1.55

-3

-0.5

-25.33

-0.5

It is no coincidence that the two most successful nations in the Six Nations tournament France (five championships) and England (four championships) have the highest average home points differentials, scoring (on average) 11.31 and 17.94 more points than they concede at home.

What is interesting is that despite being the joint second most successful nation with four championships, Wales (4.66) actually have a lower average home points differential than Ireland (10.51). Even after eliminating Wales’ disastrous 2003 wooden spoon campaign, their average home points differential only works out at (5.06). It is important to look at recent form however. Wales won in both 2012 and 2013 and their subsequent HFA increased to 13.66 for the two most recent Six Nations tournaments.

Italy and Scotland have performed the worst in the Six Nations, holding 12 of the 14 wooden spoons between them – Italy (9) and Scotland (3) – and it comes as no surprise to see them both have a negative average home points differential of -12.97 and -4.40 respectively.

However, to understand each nations HFA better we need to compare each nations home points differential with their away differential to note just how much better they play under the influence of a home crowd and in familiar surroundings.

Home vs. Away Points Differential

Unsurprisingly, England top the list for teams who perform better at home, gaining an average of 13.29 points more at home than they do on the road. Ireland and Wales aren’t too far from this number, with the Irish gaining 10.83 and the Welsh at 9.09 more points at home than away.

Nation

Home

Away

Home Benefit (Difference)

England

17.94

4.66

13.29

Scotland

-4.40

-12.74

8.34

Ireland

10.51

-0.31

10.83

Wales

4.66

-4.43

9.09

France

11.31

6.49

4.83

Italy

-12.97

-20.71

7.74

Scotland, Italy and France all have notably smaller differences between their home and away results, scoring 8.34, 7.74 and 4.83 more points at home respectively.

What causes these big differences is unknown, but there are numerous factors that could have a major influence. Discovering these factors – and noting when they are in play – could go a long way to improving your Six Nations betting results.

Possible Influences of HFA?

While the stats suggest each team performs better at home than away, it’s almost impossible to quantify this to a specific home-field advantage handicap. This is due to a number of external influences, whereby each influence affects the other.

One major reason is that each nation’s mean HFA changes year-on-year. Another is that no one has managed to objectively define the factors that influence HFA, which could range from form, to weather, to crowds, referees, to future intentions and a feel-good factor that winning breeds.

Handicap betting & HFA

It isn’t surprising that England beat Italy at home, but by understanding how much better England are at home should interest handicap bettors. Below is a table showcasing the Six Nation teams performances against the spread last year.

2013 Six Nations Handicap Form

Nation

Covered

Home

Away

Wales

80%

50%

100%

England

60%

66%

50%

Italy

60%

66%

50%

Scotland

60%

66%

50%

Ireland

40%

50%

33%

France

0%

0%

0%

Wales – who won the Six Nations in 2013 – covered the spread in an impressive 80% of games including a 100% record away from the Millennium Stadium. Interestingly France failed to cover the handicap once, showcasing they were completely overvalued by the traders on their way to the Wooden Spoon.

The table below highlights each nations combined handicap performance over the last four Six Nations tournaments – each team has played five games at home and five away.

Wales lead the way by covering 60% of their matches, however more surprisingly Italy are joint favourites. By recording historical handicap data savvy bettors would be aware that Italy have been seriously undervalued against the handicap at home, covering in an impressive 90% of games. Is this a sign that traders have underestimated the Italians HFA? In comparison France have been overvalued in the past four tournaments covering in just 25% of their games.

2013 Six Nations Handicap Form – Last Four Years

Nation

Covered

Home

Away

Wales

60%

50%

70%

Italy

60%

90%

30%

England

55%

60%

50%

Scotland

55%

60%

40%

Ireland

40%

50%

30%

France

25%

30%

20%

Further work and analysis needs to be done, however there may be an opportunity to make a Six Nations rugby betting profit by working out a nations HFA more accurately than the bookmaker.

Click here for the Outright Six Nations odds.

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