Is Henderson overvalued based on his name alone?

Is Henderson overvalued based on his name alone?

By Gary Wise Jan 23, 2014

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On Saturday, January 25th, former UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson will fight Josh Thomson in the main event at UFC on Fox 10. Henderson opened as the big favourite, we’re asking whether that’s based on skill or hype.

Name recognition bias

Before suffering his second loss to Lightweight champion Anthony Pettis, Henderson 1.364* was making his way up the pound-for-pound lists throughout the MMA world. He’d won 17 of 18 fights overall and seven consecutive fights in the UFC, the last three of them title defenses against big names: Frankie Edgar, Nate Diaz and Gilbert Melendez.

His last four fights had all been UFC main events, meaning he was central to marketing the cards he appeared on. Throw in a distinctive look and plenty of winner interviews with Joe Rogan and you see why he’s now one of the most-recognizable fighters in the UFC.

For all that gloss and success though, Henderson’s record isn’t quite as pristine as first glances suggest. While his first win against Edgar was a unanimous decision victory, many insiders disagreed with that verdict. His win against Edgar in their return bout came by split decision, as did the win over Melendez, with both victories coming with loud complaints from observers.

In fact, Henderson hasn’t managed to win a single UFC fight by knockout or submission…that’s 7 victories via scorecard. Keep in mind, many judges feel a challenger needs to overwhelm for a decision victory, a fact that may have been decisive in the aforementioned split decisions; Henderson doesn’t have that edge on his side any more.

For experienced MMA bettors, Thomson 3.440* is a familiar entity, but for casual bettors he may be something of a mystery. Most of his success came in the lightweight championship in Strikeforce before that organization was purchased by UFC parent company Zuffa. In the time since the purchase, Strikeforce fighters have at least broken even with their better-known UFC counterparts.

Injury forced a 17-month layoff on Thomson before he made his UFC debut with a unanimous judges decision over KJ Noons. He then lost a split decision to old nemesis Melendez before winning knockout of the Night honors against Diaz.

It was the first knockout loss of Diaz’ career. Thomson’s resume may not be quite as flashy as Henderson’s, but they’re far more similar than one would think in a fight whose odds list Henderson as having an 73.3% chance to win.

Striking

Thomson and Henderson bring similar striking profiles to their fight. Henderson lands 2.89 significant strikes per minute to Thomson’s 2.5, while Thomson has a slight edge in accuracy, landing 48% to Henderson’s 44%. Thomson has the edge in power with 5 career knockouts to Henderson’s 2, but in doing so is more-easily struck, absorbing 1.83 strikes per minute to Henderson’s 1.57.

Henderson’s lack of knockout record should really play here, allowing Thomson to use the same aggression that saw him knock out Diaz. Henderson will likely try to dance and use his kicks to maintain a distance in the fight, and his ability to do so may be the difference maker if he’s playing for a scorecard win. As we’ll see in a moment, he probably should be.

Grappling

Before submitting to a first round armbar in losing the title to Pettis, Henderson had developed a reputation as one of the best submission defenders in the sport, with incredible balance that made him tough to take down (65% takedown defense) and harder to keep down. A strong wrestler, it should be noted that Henderson had 3 submission wins in 5 wins while with WEC, his last employer prior to UFC, and with 8 such wins, so submissions are a real weapon for him.

However, Tomson has never been submitted. In 26 fights, he has 5 losses; 4 by decision, one by knockout. His takedown defense of 55% isn’t pretty, but a similar wrestling background’s to Henderson’s helps him acquit himself if off his feat. 9 times, Thomas has managed to win by submission, his preferred method of victory.

With very similar skill sets seemingly cancelling one another out, expect to see some takedowns for points, but not to see the fight end there.

Wrap it all up

Looking at their striking, grappling and style, these are two similar fighters. Henderson’s edge comes in the form of Thomson’s age (35), which seems to have been a non-factor since his return from injury, and Henderson’s experience in 5-round fights.

That’s why one might expect to see the most aggressive Thomson we’ve seen since his UFC debut, and while it does add up to Henderson coming in the favourite, when you point out the Championship-loss hangover and the lack of a discernable edge, those big disparities in their odds might make a Thomson bet a worthwhile pick, especially in a division where everybody seemingly beats everybody. Of course, if you love Henderson and can’t see him possibly losing 2 straight? You know what to do.

Click here to see the latest UFC on Fox 10 Henderson vs. Thomson betting.

*Odds subject to change

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