How the Champions League last 16 have performed on the handicap?

How the Champions League last 16 have performed on the handicap?

By Charlie Rowing Jan 14, 2014

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This article looks at the remaining Champions League teams’ handicap form ahead of the first leg ties in February. Among the interesting trends we discovered that despite having a fantastic home record Zenit have failed to cover the spread, while both Real and Atletico Madrid have 100% records against the handicap this season.

Champions League handicap records

The Champions League handicap table below shows how well the remaining 16 teams have performed against expectations so far this season in Europe’s elite domestic competition. Instead of looking at the win-loss-draw performance of each team, the table highlights the teams that have exceeded expectation or under-performed – a vital tool for Champions League soccer betting. It is worth noting that the data is based on just six Champions League games.

Team

Cover %

Home Cover %

Away Cover %

Atletico Madrid

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

Real Madrid

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

Manchester United

83.3%

100.0%

66.7%

Olympiacos

83.3%

66.7%

100.0%

Arsenal

66.7%

66.7%

66.7%

Bayern Munich

66.7%

66.7%

66.7%

Manchester City

66.7%

33.3%

100.0%

Galatasaray

50.0%

66.7%

33.3%

AC Milan

50.0%

66.7%

33.3%

Borussia Dortmund

50.0%

66.7%

33.3%

Schalke 04

50.0%

66.7%

33.3%

Bayer Leverkusen

50.0%

33.3%

66.7%

Chelsea

50.0%

33.3%

66.7%

Paris Saint Germain

50.0%

33.3%

66.7%

Barcelona

33.3%

66.7%

0.0%

Zenit St. Petersburg

16.7%

0.0%

33.3%

Zenit handicap form offers surprise

Public consensus is that Zenit St. Petersburg are a strong team at home both domestically and in European competition. The statistics back up the assumption with Zenit losing just 7 Russian Premier League games at the Petrovsky Stadium in five seasons, while in Europe, they have won 15, drawn five and lost just one game on home soil in the last four seasons.

Despite their excellent home record in recent years they have struggled against the handicap this season – failing to cover the handicap in any of their three home Champions League games.

Bettors must decide if the +0.5 handicap for their first leg against Dortmund is another overestimation, or if they have been undervalued – as a result of being overvalued – given they are at home against a team who have struggled for form recently.

The Madrid handicap machines

Both Madrid teams have been a handicap bettors dream so far in the Champions League this season – both covering in a 100% of their games.

Real stormed their group – Galatasaray, Juventus and Copenhagen – with five wins and a draw, while Atletico matched their City rivals despite having an easier group – Zenit, Porto and Marseille.

Atletico are the 0 and -0.5 favourites when they play struggling AC Milan who sacked manager Massimiliano Allegri on January 13th after a disastrous start to their domestic season. Are they undervalued again given the situation at the San Siro?

Barcelona & Olympiacos: Upsetting bookmakers’ expectations

Bettors should gather their own handicap data, and set their own handicap strength for each team per game based on their data. So far in this season’s Champions League, Barcelona and Olympiacos are the perfect examples of finding unexpected value on a team.

Barcelona have covered in just 33.3% of their Champions League games this season –obviously underperforming on the handicap this season. A closer look however highlights they have failed to cover in their three away games. The handicap is set at 0 for their first leg against Manchester City who have been in devastating form at home domestically.

Olympiacos in comparison have covered in 83.3% of their games including 100% at home. With the Greek side as the 0 & 0.5 underdogs on home soil against Manchester United in their first leg, are the bookmakers underestimating them again at home?

Want to understand more about soccer handicap betting? Click here to learn the basics.

See the latest Champions League handicap betting odds now.

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