How does Villa’s style of play affect their home handicap performance?

How does Villa’s style of play affect their home handicap performance?

By Michael Gales Jan 27, 2014

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Aston Villa have covered just 18.7% of games at home, compared to 81.82% of away games. Ahead of their game with West Brom on Wednesday we look at how Villa’s counter attacking style may be responsible for this disparity, while considering if their recent form has led the bookmakers to underestimate them against the Baggies?

Is Villa’s home handicap form a consequence of their playing style? 

Aston Villa’s youthful squad are a Premier League enigma; capable of beating Arsenal and Man City one week then losing to Fulham and Crystal Palace the following. Bettors must ask themselves why Villa are so inconsistent?

In addition to their average squad age of just 24 – by far the youngest in the Premier League – understanding their style of play could unlock the riddle.

Manager Paul Lambert doesn’t appear to play a default formation switching from 4-3-3, 3-5-2 and 4-4-2. How much does this lack of tactical consistency affect his young team, does it have an affect?

Another factor is Villa’s counter-attacking style of play. Villa drop deep to become compact, conserving energy levels and allowing their opponents possession of the ball, once they regain possession they attack with the purpose of getting the ball to the forwards as quickly as possible – which is why they have poor possession (39.8% – 3rd worst in the EPL) and pass completion rates (71.3% – 2nd worst in the EPL).

Aston Villa have covered just 18.7% of games at home

This tactic has been working on the road for Villa who have picked up 16 points on the road and covered the handicap in 81.82% of away games.

However, at home when the onus is on Villa to take the game to the opposition, rather than sitting back waiting to counter, they have struggled – they have the worst record at home in the Premier League claiming just eight points.

On the handicap the Villans have covered in just two home games (18.7%) showcasing they have been seriously overvalued at home this season. A look at their scoring records show they average just 0.73 goals and concede 1.45 per game at Villa Park.

Aston Villa are the 1.847* home favourites on the 0 goal handicap when they play West Brom on Wednesday. Given that Villa have failed to cover at home in their last five Premier League home games and they have played five of the EPL top 6 at home, bettors must decide if the oddsmakers have now underestimated Villa on the handicap as a direct influence of their previous home handicap form?

Bookmakers expected WBA Poor away form

Under new manager Pepe Mel West Brom will be expected to improve on their away form that has seen them win just one away Premier League game all season.

However, despite performing poorly on the road, they have covered in 45.45% of away matches – evidence they have performed pretty much as expected. Away from home The Baggies score an average of one goal per game and concede 1.45 goals.

Their cover percentage is reasonable – despite their 1×2 record – because they have drawn six of their 11 games and had the handicap in their favour in all but three games – West Ham, Stoke City and Cardiff City. Interestingly they have failed to cover in any of the three games the handicap has been set at 0 goals.

With the handicap set at 0 and West Brom as the 2.100* underdogs bettors must decide if WBA have the strength to beat Villa or if the home team have been undervalued as a result of their previous home handicap form?

Click here to see the latest Premier League handicap odds.

*Odds subject to change

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