Which Serie A teams are exceeding expectations on the handicap?

Which Serie A teams are exceeding expectations on the handicap?

By Michael Gales Dec 31, 2013

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With the 2013/14 Serie A season now on its annual winter break until January 5th, Pinnacle Sports has gathered this seasons handicap data for bettors to analyse. Juventus may have won 15 of their 17 Serie A games, but have covered the handicap just 29.4%.

The story so far: 2013/14 La Liga handicap table before winter break

The Serie A handicap table below shows how well the Italian teams have performed against expectations so far this season. Instead of looking at the win-loss-draw performance of each team, the table highlights the teams that have exceeded expectation or under-performed – a vital tool for Serie A soccer betting.

2013/14 Serie A Handicap table

Team

Handicap Position

Serie A Position

Difference

Cover %

Home Cover %

Away Cover %

Napoli

1

3

+2

70.6%

77.8%

62.5%

Udinese

2

11

+9

70.6%

100%

44%

Parma

3

8

+5

64.7%

77.8%

50.0%

Lazio

4

10

+6

58.8%

100%

22.2%

Bologna

5

17

+12

52.9%

66.7%

37.5%

Genoa

6

9

+3

52.9%

62.5%

44.4%

Verona

7

6

-1

52.9%

55.6%

50.0%

Sassuolo

8

18

+10

52.9%

50.0%

55.6%

Roma

9

2

-7

47.1%

22.2%

75%

Catania

10

20

+10

47.1%

75.0%

22.2%

Sampdoria

11

14

+3

47.1%

11.1%

87.5%

Torino

12

7

-5

47.1%

66.7%

25.0%

Atalanta

13

15

+2

41.2%

62.5%

22.2%

Chievo

14

16

+2

41.2%

25.0%

55.6%

Fiorentina

15

4

-11

41.2%

25.0%

55.6%

Inter

16

5

-11

41.2%

44.4%

37.5%

Livorno

17

19

+2

41.2%

44.4%

37.5%

Juventus

18

1

-17

29.4%

12.5%

44.4%

Cagliari

19

12

-7

23.5%

11.1%

37.5%

AC Milan

20

13

-7

17.6%

25.0%

11.1%

Napoli & Udinese: Both performing far above bookmaker expectations

Napoli and Udinese have covered 70.6% of their games this season and lead the way in the Serie A Pinnacle Sports handicap table – they are 5.9% better off than Parma in third and covered 11.8% more than Lazio in fourth.

Napoli are third in Serie A under Rafa Benitez but despite trailing leaders Juventus by 10-points they have been a handicappers dream this season. Gli Azzurri have covered the handicap 77.8% (3rd best) of their games at home and on the road an impressive 62.5% (3rd best). This showcases that Napoli have consistently performed above expectations both home and away this season.

Udinese – eighth in Serie A – in comparison have had contrasting form on the handicap when playing at home compared to away. The Bianconeri have been exceptional at home on the handicap this season covering in all eight games at the Stadio Friuli despite losing three. On the road however they have under-performed slightly from the bookmakers expectations covering in just 44.4% of those games.

Bettors would be well advised to monitor the handicap values at both Napoli and Udinese to recognize when either are overvalued as a result of their performances against the spread thus far.

Juventus & Milan: Two to avoid for handicap bettors

Juventus hold a five-point advantage – losing just once – at the top of Serie A and have won their last nine games as they go in search of their third successive Scudetto.

Despite being in such good form, handicap bettors will be interested to know that the Bianconeri have covered the spread in just 29.4% of games (3rd worst). Their form at home against the spread is so poor they have covered in just 12.5% of their games at The Juventus Stadium despite winning all eight games. On the road Juventus’ cover percentage increases to 44.4% but have still under-performed slightly.

Juventus’ overall performance against the handicap this season underlines an opportunity for bettors to make a profit betting against them on the spread, despite the Serie A leaders wining all but two of their 17 Serie A games – an option which could prove more profitable than backing them to win on the 12 market.

AC Milan are one of the most prestigious teams in Italy with 18 Serie A titles. The Rossoneri’s haven’t finished outside the top three of Serie A since the 2007-08 season but find themselves struggling in 13th – 17 points from third.

With such poor performances this season it isn’t surprising that Milan are the worst performing team against the spread this season covering in a measly 17.6% (3 matches) of games – 25% at home and 11.1% (worst in the division) on the road.

With bookmakers obviously overvaluing the Rossoneri’s strength in the first half of the season, the key question is by how much? Answering this question could prove profitable as the bookmaker reacts to their handicap form, creating an opportunity for them to be undervalued in the future.

Sampdoria & Lazio: A tale of home and away

When betting on the handicap bettors should be mindful of teams that perform better at home than on the road, and vice versa. These trends can skew their overall handicap performance and so far in the 2013/14 Serie A season Sampdoria and Lazio are two such teams.

Lazio have an overall handicap cover percentage of 58.8%, while Sampdoria have done so in 47.1% of their games. However by keeping their own data bettors would have noticed that Lazio’s home record (100%) against the spread is far superior to when they play away (22.2%).

Sampdoria in comparison have covered the spread at home in just 11.1% (worst in the division) of their home games compared to an impressive 87.5% (best in the division) on their travels.

Both Lazio’s and Sampdoria’s handicap form this season highlights the need for bettors to keep their own handicap records so they can highlight trends in the data, helping them set their own handicap strength and therefore deciding if a teams handicap is wrong.

Want to understand more about soccer handicap betting? Click here to learn the basics.

See the latest Serie A handicap betting odds now.

*Odds subject to change

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