Handicap analysis for Chelsea vs. Manchester United

Handicap analysis for Chelsea vs. Manchester United

By Michael Gales Jan 15, 2014

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Chelsea may have gone 70 Premier League games unbeaten under Jose Mourinho but are they as formidable against the spread? Manchester United maybe struggling under Moyes but their away handicap form is surprisingly strong. Read on for more Chelsea vs. Handicap betting analysis.

Chelsea don’t lose at home, but they don’t always cover the handicap 

Under the management of Jose Mourinho – across two spells – Chelsea are undefeated in 70 Premier League games – winning 55 and drawing 15. Finding value on the 1×2 market is difficult with the Blues marked as heavy favourites most weeks at Stamford Bridge, however on the handicap there is more value to be found.

Chelsea have covered the spread in 66.7% of Premier League games this season – joint best in the EPL. Despite winning 90% of their home games this season, they have covered the handicap in 70% of those games – surprising given Mourinho’s pragmatic reputation.

In their last five EPL games at Stamford Bridge Chelsea have failed to cover in three – WBA, Swansea and Crystal Palace – showcasing they have been overvalued by bookmakers against weaker opposition. Against tougher opposition – Liverpool and Man City – the opposite appears to be true, as Chelsea have covered the -0.25 handicap on both occasions.

This season the Blues have scored at least once in every game at home and score an average of 2.20 goals and concede 0.80 per game. Defensively the Blues have not been at their best in their ten home games – keeping a clean sheet in just three. By covering in 70% of home games oddsmakers have underestimated their offensive strength at Stamford Bridge, which has compensated for a leaky defence.

United average 2.10 goals per game away compared to just 1.27 at home

With Chelsea set as the -0.5 favourites against United at 1.833* bettors must decide if the Blues have been underestimated again given they have failed just once this season to win by more than one goal.

United better away from home on the handicap

Manchester United have underperformed this season and currently sit seventh in the Premier League – 11-points adrift of Arsenal at the top.

Even taking the appointment of David Moyes – after Sir Alex Ferguson retired – into consideration, United have still not performed as well as expected, covering 38.1% of their games – fourth worst in the EPL

Despite struggling for form at home and in the domestic cups, United are unbeaten in their last seven away Premier League games. They have covered in 50% of their away games, including their last three – Aston Villa, Hull and Norwich. Is this a sign that they are feeling less pressure playing away from home, and are therefore playing with more freedom?

The stats suggest this is true given they average 2.10 goals per game away compared to just 1.27 at home – despite conceding 1.40 on the road compared to just 0.91 at Old Trafford.

Given United are +0.5 underdogs at 2.120* – the biggest handicap set against them this season – have the bookmakers started to undervalue United on the road again?

Historically Chelsea have been undervalued at home against United

Normally historical head-to-head data can be ignored due to differing squads and big handicap margins, however the handicap for Chelsea vs. Manchester United is so tight the result is more relevant – the winner usually covers.

In the last ten Premier League games at Stamford Bridge Chelsea have won six and subsequently covered, while United won twice and covered twice. The remaining two games were draws with the handicap set at 0, resulting in a push.

Interestingly the -0.5 handicap, set in favour of Chelsea is the joint-biggest, reflecting the power shift this season; the two games before the Blues were set as -0.5 favourites and won both 1-0.

Considering their recent handicap form on the road bettors must decide if United are more or less than 0.5 goals weaker than Chelsea or if the Blues have been undervalued again given they have failed just once to win by more than one goal this season?

Click here to see the latest Chelsea vs. Manchester United handicap betting odds.

*Odds subject to change

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